Spranca, Mark, Elisa Minsk, and Jonathan Baron. “Omission and Commission in Judgment and Choice.” Journal of Experimental Social Psychology27, no. 1 (1991): 76–105.
Раскрытие информации
Cain, Daylian M., George Loewenstein, and Don A. Moore. (2005).“The Dirt on Coming Clean: Perverse Effects of Disclosing Conflicts of Interest.” Journal of Legal Studies34, no. 1 (2005): 1–25.
Разное
Smith, Adam. The Wealth of Nations. Edited, with an Introduction and Notes by Edwin Cannan. New York: Modern Library, 1994.
Типологии искажений и способов борьбы с ними
Bazerman, Max H., and Don A. Moore. Judgment in Managerial Decision Making.Hoboken, NJ: Wiley, 2008.
Dobelli, Rolf. The Art of Thinking Clearly. Translated by Nicky Griffin. New York: HarperCollins, 2013.
Dolan, Paul, et al. “MINDSPACE: Influencing Behaviour Through Public Policy.” Cabinet Office and Institute for Government, London, UK, 2010.
Finkelstein, Sydney, Jo Whitehead, and Andrew Campbell. Think Again: Why Good Leaders Make Bad Decisions and How to Keep It from Happening to You. Boston: Harvard Business Press, 2008.
Halpern, David. Inside the Nudge Unit: How Small Changes Can Make a Big Difference. New York: W. H. Allen, 2015.
Heath, Chip, and Dan Heath. Decisive: How to Make Better Choices in Life and Work. New York: Crown Business, 2013.
Service, Owain, et al. “EAST: Four Simple Ways to Apply Behavioural Insights.” Behavioural Insights Ltd. and Nesta. April 2014.
Tversky, Amos, and Daniel Kahneman. “Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuris-tics and Biases.” Science 185 (1974): 1124–31.
Опасность списывания всех неудач на искажения
Rosenzweig, Phil. Left Brain, Right Stuff: How Leaders Make Winning Decisions. New York: Public Affairs, 2014.
Реестры приобретений
Bruner, Robert F. “Does M&A Pay? A Survey of Evidence for the Decision-Maker.” Journal of Applied Finance 12, no. 1 (2002): 48–68.
Cartwright, Susan, and Richard Schoenberg. “Thirty Years of Mergers and Acquisitions Research: Recent Advances and Future Opportunities.” British Journal of Management 17, Suppl. 1 (2006).
Datta, Deepak K., George E. Pinches, and V. K. Narayanan. “Factors Influencing Wealth Creation from Mergers and Acquisitions: A Meta-Analysis.” Strategic Management Journal 13, no. 1 (1992): 67–84.
Литература по теме «Недооценка конкурентов» см. литературу Главы 4, о прекращении инвестирования в неудачные проекты см. литературу Главы 5.
Попытки преодолеть влияние искажений
Dobelli, Rolf. The Art of Thinking Clearly.Translated by Nicky Griffin. New York: HarperCollins, 2013.
Finkelstein, Sydney, Jo Whitehead, and Andrew Campbell.Think Again: Why Good Leaders Make Bad Decisions and How to Keep It From Happening to You. Boston: Harvard Business Press, 2008.
Hammond, John S., Ralph L. Keeney, and Howard Raiffa. “The Hidden Traps in Decision Making.” Harvard Business Review, January 2006, 47–58.
Слепое пятно искажений
Fischhoff, Baruch. “Debiasing.” In Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, edited by Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic, and Amos Tversky, 422–44. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1982.
Milkman, Katherine L., Dolly Chugh, and Max H. Bazerman. “How Can Decision Making Be Improved?” Perspectives on Psychological Science4, no. 4 (2009): 379–83.
Morewedge, Carey K., et al. “Debiasing Decisions: Improved Decision Makingwith a Single Training Intervention.” Policy Insights from the Behavioral and Brain Sciences2, no. 1 (2015): 129–40.
Nisbett, Richard E. Mindware: Tools for Smart Thinking. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2015.
Pronin, Emily, Daniel Y. Lin, and Lee Ross. “The Bias Blind Spot: Asymmetric Perceptions of Bias in Others Versus the Self.” Personality and Social PsychologyBulletin28, no. 3 (2002): 369–81.
Sellier, Anne-Laure, Irene Scopelliti, and Carey K. Morewedge. “Debiasing Training Transfers to Improve Decision Making in the Field.” Psychological Science30, no. 9 (2019): 1371–79.
Soll, Jack B., Katherine L. Milkman, and John W. Payne.“A User’s Guide to Debiasing.” In The Wiley Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making, Vol. 2, edited by Gideon Keren and George Wu, 924–51. Chichester, UK: Wiley-Blackwell, 2016.
Карибский кризис
Kennedy, Robert F. Thirteen Days: A Memoir of the Cuban Missile Crisis. New York: W. W. Norton, 1969.
White, Mark. “Robert Kennedy and the Cuban Missile Crisis: A Reinterpretation.” American Diplomacy, September 2007.
Разное
McKinsey & Company. “Dan Ariely on Irrationality in the Workplace.” Интервью Февраль 2011. https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/ strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/dan-ariely-on-irrationality-in – the-workplace#.
Preston, Caroline E., and Stanley Harris. “Psychology of Drivers in Traffic Accidents.” Journal of Applied Psychology49, no. 4 (1965): 284–88.
Примечания
Мы не просто слепы к некоторым очевидным вещам, но и слепы к этой слепоте: Kahneman, Daniel. Thinking, Fast and Slow. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2011, 24.
Если честно, поводов для оптимизма я тут не вижу: “Strategic Decisions: When Can You Trust Your Gut?” Интервью с Даниэлем Канеманом и Гари Клайном. McKinsey Quarterly, March 2010.
Непредвиденные ситуации во время космических миссий
Clervoy, Jean-François, private communication. Space travel: Wikipedia, s. v. “List of Spaceflight-Related Accidents and Incidents.” Accessed July 20, 2014.
Чек-листы
Gawande, Atul. The Checklist Manifesto: How to Get Things Right. New York: Metropolitan Books, 2009.
Haynes Alex B., et al. “A Surgical Safety Checklist to Reduce Morbidity and Mortality in a Global Population.” New England Journal of Medicine360, no. 5 (2009): 491–99.
Kahneman, Daniel, Dan Lovallo, and Olivier Sibony. “The Big Idea: Before You Make That Big Decision.” Harvard Business Review, June 2011.
Корпоративные практики принятия решений
Heath, Chip, Richard P. Larrick, and Joshua Klayman.“Cognitive Repairs: How Organizational Practices Can Compensate for Individual Shortcomings.” Research in Organizational Behavior20, no. 1 (1998): 1–37.
Билл Миллер
McDonald, Ian. “Bill Miller Dishes on His Streak and His Strategy,” Wall Street Journal, January 6, 2005.
Mlodinow, Leonard. The Drunkard’s Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives. New York: Vintage, 2009.
Инвестиционные решения
Garbuio, Massimo, Dan Lovallo, and Olivier Sibony.“Evidence Doesn’t Argue for Itself: The Value of Disinterested Dialogue in Strategic Decision-Making.” Long Range Planning48, no. 6 (2015): 361–80.
Lovallo, Dan, and Olivier Sibony.“The Case for Behavioral Strategy.” McKinsey Quarterly, March 2010, 30–43.
Разное
“The Spectacular Rise and Fall of WeWork.”The Daily podcast, New York Times, November 18, 2019, featuring Masayoshi Son.
Мозговые штурмы
Diehl, Michael, and Wolfgang Stroebe. “Productivity Loss in Brainstorming Groups: Toward the Solution of a Riddle.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology53, no. 3 (1987): 497–509.
Keeney, Ralph L. “Value-Focused Brainstorming.” Decision Analysis9, no. 4 (2012): 303–13.
Sutton, Robert I., and Andrew Hargadon. “Brainstorming Groups in Context: Effectiveness in a Product Design Firm.” Administrative Science Quarterly41, no. 4 (1996): 685–718.
Когнитивное разнообразие
Reynolds, Alison, and David Lewis. “Teams Solve Problems Faster When They’re More Cognitively Diverse.” Harvard Business Review, March 2017, 6.
Roberto, Michael A. Why Great Leaders Don’t Take Yes for an Answer. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Education, Inc./Prentice Hall, 2005.
Презентации
Bezos, Jeff. “Forum on Leadership: A Conversation with Jeff Bezos.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xu6vFIKAUxk&=&feature=youtu.be&=&t=26m31s]. Письмо акционерам Amazon, [Апрель 2017]. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000119312518121161/d456916dex991.htm
Kaplan, Sarah. “Strategy and PowerPoint: An Inquiry into the Epistemic Culture and Machinery of Strategy Making.” Organization Science22, no. 2 (2011): 320–46.
Искреннее несогласие
Greitemeyer, Tobias, Stefan Schulz-Hardt, and Dieter Frey. “The Effects of Authentic and Contrived Dissent on Escalation of Commitment in Group Decision Making.” European Journal of Social Psychology39, no. 4 (June 2009): 639–47.
Nemeth Charlan, Keith Brown, and John Rogers. “Devil’s Advocate Versus Authentic Dissent: Stimulating Quantity and Quality.” European Journal of Social Psychology31, no. 6 (2001): 707–20.
Множественные варианты
Heath, Chip, and Dan Heath. Decisive: How to Make Better Choices in Life and Work. New York: Crown Business, 2013.
Nutt, Paul C. “The Identification of Solution Ideas During Organizational Decision Making.” Management Science39, no. 9 (1993): 1071–85.
«Виртуальное вскрытие»
Klein, Gary. “Performing a Project Premortem.” Harvard Business Review, September 2007.
Klein, Gary, Paul D. Sonkin, and Paul Johnson. “Rendering a Powerful Tool Flaccid: The Misuse of Premortems on Wall Street.”