Примечания
1
Пер. М. Михайлова. Из кн.: Роберт Бёрнс. Стихотворения. М., 1982. (Здесь и далее прим. пер., если не указано иного.)
2
«Davos Man Is Cooling on Stockholm Girl Greta Thunberg», Sunday Times, January 26, 2020, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/davos-maniscoolingonstockholm-girl-greta-thunberg-z2sqcx872.
3
«The Deadliest Virus We Face Is Complacency», Sunday Times, February 2, 2020, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/the-deadliest-virus-we-face-is-complacency-wsp7xdr7s.
4
«Trump May Shrug Off Coronavirus. America May Not», Sunday Times, March 1, 2020, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/trump-may-shrug-off-coronavirus-america-may-not-bmvw9rqzd.
5
«‘Network Effects’ Multiply a Viral Threat», Wall Street Journal, March 8, 2020, https://www.wsj.com/articles/network-effects-multiplyaviral-threat-11583684394.
6
Worldometer, https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us.
7
«The First Coronavirus Error Was Keeping Calm», Sunday Times, March 15, 2020, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/the-first-coronavirus-error-was-keeping-calm-zvj28s0rp.
8
Richard J. Evans, Death in Hamburg: Society and Politics in the Cholera Years, 1830–1910 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1987).
9
Niall Ferguson, The Pity of War: Explaining World War I (New York: Basic Books, 1999), pp. 342f.
10
Niall Ferguson, The War of the World: Twentieth-Century Conflict and the Descent of the West (New York: Penguin Press, 2006), pp. 144f.
11
Niall Ferguson, Empire: The Rise and Fall of the British World Order and the Lessons for Global Power (New York: Penguin Press, 2006), p. 65.
12
Niall Ferguson, Civilization: The West and the Rest (New York: Penguin Press, 2011), p. 175.
13
Пер. И. Кригера.
14
Niall Ferguson, The Great Degeneration: How Institutions Decay and Economies Die (New York: Penguin Press, 2012), p. 144.
15
Пер. Т. Азаркович.
16
Niall Ferguson, The Square and the Tower: Networks and Power from the Freemasons to Facebook♦ (New York: Penguin Press, 2012), p. 203.
17
SeroTracker, Public Health Agency of Canada, https://serotracker.com/Dashboard.
18
О точных условиях пари см.: Bet 9, Long Bets Project, http://longbets.org/9/. Рис прежде всего был озабочен опасностью биотерроризма, но добавил «биологическую ошибку», подразумевая под ней «нечто, имеющее тот же эффект, что и террористическая атака, но возникшее скорее не из злого умысла, а по неосторожности». Есть некая двусмысленность в том, имеются ли в виду под словом «жертвы» только случаи со смертельным исходом: «В идеале в число жертв следует включить „людей, нуждающихся в госпитализации“ и не включать косвенные смерти, вызванные патогеном».
19
Patrick G. T. Walker et al., «The Global Impact of COVID-19 and Strategies for Mitigation and Suppression», MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, Report 12, March 26, 2020.
20
Для ознакомления: Ferguson, Square and the Tower.
21
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder (New York: Random House, 2012).
22
«South Africa’s ‘Doom Pastor’ Found Guilty of Assault», BBC News, February 9, 2018, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-43002701.
23
«All unavoided is the doom of destiny». Пер. А. Радловой. Уильям Шекспир. Ричард III. Акт IV, сцена 4.
24
«What, will the line stretch out to th' crack of doom?» Пер. М. Лозинского. Уильям Шекспир. Макбет. Акт IV, сцена 1.
25
Nicole Sperling, «‘Contagion,’ Steven Soderbergh’s 2011 Thriller, Is Climbing up the Charts», New York Times, March 4, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/business/media/coronavirus-contagion-movie.html.
26
Луи-Фердинанд Селин. Путешествие на край ночи / Пер. Ю. Корнеева. М., 1994.
27
Louis-Ferdinand Céline, Journey to the End of the Night, trans. Ralph Manheim (New York: New Directions, 1983 [1934]), p. 14.
28
Marc Bloch, L’étrange défaite: Témoignage écrit en 1940 (Paris: Gallimard, 1997 [1946]).
29
Max H. Bazerman and Michael D. Watkins, Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming, and How to Prevent Them, 2nd ed. (Cambridge, MA: Harvard Business School Publishing, 2008); Michele Wucker, The Gray Rhino: How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore (New York: Macmillan, 2016).
30
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (London: Penguin/Allen Lane, 2007).
31
Didier Sornette, «Dragon Kings, Black Swans and the Prediction of Crises», Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series No. 09–36 (2009), доступно в источнике: SSRN, http://ssrn.com/abstract=1470006.
32
Keith Thomas, Religion and the Decline of Magic: Studies in Popular Beliefs in Sixteenth and Seventeenth Century England (London: Weidenfeld & Nicolson, 1971).
33
Norman Dixon, On the Psychology of Military Incompetence (London: Pimlico, 1994).
34
Christina Boswell, The Political Uses of Expert Knowledge: Immigration Policy and Social Research (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2009).
35
Henry A. Kissinger, «Decision Making in a Nuclear World» (1963), Henry A. Kissinger papers, Part II, Series I, Yale University Library, mssa.ms.1981/ref25093.
36
Richard Feynman, «What Do You Care What Other People Think?» Further Adventures of a Curious Character (New York: W. W. Norton, 1988), pp. 179–184.
37
«House Approves Creation of Committee to Investigate Katrina Response», Voice of America, 31.10.2009, https://www.voanews.com/archive/house-approves-creation-committee-investigate-katrina-response.
38
J. R. Hampton, «The End of Medical History?» Journal of the Royal College of Physicians of London 32, no. 4 (1998), pp. 366–375.
39
Larry Brilliant, «My Wish: Help Me Stop Pandemics», February 2006, TED video, 25:38, https://www.ted.com/talks/larry_brilliant_my_wish_help_me_stop_pandemics.
40
См. в целом: Nick Bostrom and Milan Сirkoviс, eds., Global Ca tastrophic Risks (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008).
41
Ricki Harris, «Elon Musk: Humanity Is a Kind of ‘Biological Boot Loader’ for AI», Wired, September 1, 2019, https://www.wired.com/story/elon-musk-humanity-biological-boot-loaderai/.
42
Пер. М. Лозинского. Уильям Шекспир. Гамлет. Акт V, сцена 2.
43
Retirement & Survivors Benefits: Life Expectancy Calculator, Social Security Administration, https://www.ssa.gov/cgi-bin/longevity.cgi; Life Expectancy Calculator, Office for National Statistics (UK), https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandlifeexpectancies/articles/lifeexpectancycalculator/20190607; Living to 100 Life Expectancy Calculator, https://www.livingto100.com/calculator/age.
44
Max Roser, Esteban Ortiz-Ospina, and Hannah Ritchie, «Life Expectancy», Our World in Data, 2013, last revised October 2019, https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy.
45
«Mortality Rate, Under5 (Per 1,000 Live Births)», World Bank Group, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.DYN.MORT; «Mortality Rate Age 514», UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation, https://childmortality.org/data/Somalia.
46
Джон Донн. По ком звонит колокол / Пер. А. Нестерова. М., 2004. Медитация XVII.
47
Salvator Rosa, 1615–1673, L’Umana Fragilita («Хрупкость человеческой жизни»), ок. 1656, Музей Фицуильяма, Кембридж, https://www.fitzmuseum.cam.ac.uk/pharos/collection_pages/italy_pages/PD_53_1958/TXT_SE-PD_53_1958.html.
48
Philippe Aries, The Hour of Our Death, trans. Helen Weaver (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1981).
49
Adam Leith Gollner, «The Immortality Financiers: The Billionaires Who Want to Live Forever», Daily Beast, August 20, 2013, https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-immortality-financiers-the-billionaires-who-wanttolive-forever.
50
Jon Stewart, «Borges on Immortality», Philosophy and Literature 17, no. 2 (October 1993), pp. 295–301.
51
Murray Gell-Mann, «Regularities in Human Affairs», Cliodynamics: The Journal of Theoretical and Mathematical History 2 (2011), pp. 53f.
52
Cynthia Stokes Brown, Big History: From the Big Bang to the Present (New York: New Press, 2007), pp. 53f. См. также: Fred Spier, Big History and the Future of Humanity (Chichester, UK: Blackwell, 2011), p. 68.
53
Стандартная для англоязычной литературы отсылка к сказке «Златовласка и три медведя», известной на русском языке под названием «Три медведя». Оказавшись в домике у медведей, Златовласка несколько раз выбирает между разными предметами и обязательно находит тот, который оказывается ей «в самый раз».
54
Nick Bostrom and Milan Сirkoviс, «Introduction», in Global Ca tastrophic Risks, ed. Nick Bostrom and Milan Сirkoviс (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), p. 9.
55
Bostrom and Сirkoviс, «Introduction», p. 8.
56
См.в целом: Tom Holland, Dominion: How the Christian Revolution Remade the World (New York: Basic Books, 2019).
57
Richard Landes, Heaven on Earth: The Varieties of Millennial Experience (New York and Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2011), pp. 426f. См. также: Paul Casanova, Mohammed et la fin du monde: étude critique sur l’Islam primitive (Paris: P. Geuthner, 1911), pp. 17f.
58
Norman Cohn, The Pursuit of the Millennium (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1961 [1957]), pp. 106f.
59
Holland, Dominion, p. 300.
60
James J. Hughes, «Millennial Tendencies in Responses to Apocalyptic Threats», in Global Catastrophic Risks, ed. Nick Bostrom and Milan Сirkoviс (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), pp. 9, 78, 83.
61
Holland, Dominion, p. 451.
62
Robert Service, Lenin: A Biography (London: Pan Macmillan, 2011), pp. 538, 539, 594. См. также: Robert C. Williams, «The Russian Revolution and the End of Time: 1900–1940», Jahrbücher für Geschichte Osteuropas, Neue Folge, 43, no. 3 (1995), pp. 364–401.
63
«Lenin Opposed as Antichrist by Peasants in Old Russia», New York Times, June 21, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/1919/06/21/archives/lenin-opposedasantichristbypeasantsinold-russia.html.
64
Цитируется по: Владимир Прокопенко. Эрик Фёгелин и его манифест новой политической науки // Эрик Фёгелин. Новая наука политики. Введение. СПб., 2021.
65
Eric Voegelin, The New Science of Politics: An Introduction, 4th ed. (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1962), pp. 120f.
66
Эрик Фёгелин. Новая наука политики. Введение / Пер. Н. Селивёрстова. СПб., 2021.
67
Voegelin, The New Science, p. 124.
68
Voegelin, The New Science, pp. 122, 129, 131f.
69
Landes, Heaven on Earth, p. 470.
70
James A. Hijiya, «The Gita of J. Robert Oppenheimer», Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society 144, no. 2 (June 2000).
71
Doomsday Clock, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/.
72
Sewell Chan, «Doomsday Clock Is Set at 2 Minutes to Midnight, Closest Since 1950s», New York Times, January 25, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/25/world/americas/doomsday-clock-nuclear-scientists.html.
73
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Science and Security Board, «Closer than Ever: It Is 100 Seconds to Midnight», ed. John Mecklin, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, January 23, 2020, https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/.
74
Корпорация RAND — американский экспертно-аналитический центр, выполняющий заказы правительственных организаций США, но не только.
75
Сьерра-клуб — американская экологическая организация.
76
Matthew Connelly, «How Did the ‘Population Control’ Movement Go So Terribly Wrong?» Wilson Quarterly (Summer 2008), https://www.wilsonquarterly.com/quarterly/summer-2008-saving-the-world/how-did-population-control-movementgosoterribly-wrong/. См. также: Matthew Connelly, Fatal Misconception: The Struggle to Control World Population (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2008).
77
Greta Thunberg, No One Is Too Small to Make a Difference (London: Penguin, 2019), p. 46.
78
William Cummings, «‘The World Is Going to End in 12 Years If We Don’t Address Climate Change,’ Ocasio-Cortez Says», USA Today, January 22, 2019, https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2019/01/22/ocasio-cortez-climate-change-alarm/2642481002/.
79
«Greta Thunberg’s Remarks at the Davos Economic Forum», New York Times, January 21, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/21/climate/greta-thunberg-davos-transcript.html.
80
Leonard Lyons, «Loose-Leaf Notebook», Washington Post, January 20, 1947.
81
«Der Krieg? Ich kann das nicht so schrecklich finden! Der Tod eines Menschen: das ist eine Katastrophe. Hunderttausend Tote: das ist eine Statistik!» Kurt Tucholsky, «Französische Witze (I)» и «Noch einmal französische Witze (II)», Vossische Zeitung, August 23, 1925; September 10, 1925. Колонки перепечатаны в кн.: Tucholsky, K. Lerne lachen ohne zu weinen (Berlin: Ernst Rowohlt, 1932), pp. 147–156.
82
Eliezer Yudkowsky, «Cognitive Biases Potentially Affecting Judgement of Global Risks», in Global Catastrophic Risks, ed. Nick Bostrom and Milan Сirkoviс (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), p. 114.
83
Pasquale Cirillo and Nassim Nicholas Taleb, «Tail Risk of Contagious Diseases» (препринт, 2020); Lee Mordechai, Merle Eisenberg, Timothy P. Newfield, Adam Izdebski, Janet E. Kay, and Hendrik Poinar, «The Justinianic Plague: An Inconsequential Pandemic?» Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (henceforth PNAS) 116, no. 51 (2019), pp. 25546-25554, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1903797116.
84
Достойное обсуждение вклада Ричардсона: Brian Hayes, «Statistics of Deadly Quarrels», American Scientist 90 (January — February 2002), pp. 10–15.
85
Классические труды: Lewis F. Richardson, Statistics of Deadly Quarrels, ed. Quincy Wright and C. C. Lienau (Pittsburgh: Boxwood Press, 1960); Jack S. Levy, War in the Modern Great Power System, 1495–1975 (Lexington: University of Kentucky Press, 1983). Из более современных важных публикаций: Pasquale Cirillo and Nassim Nicholas Taleb, «On the Statistical Properties and Tail Risk of Violent Conflicts», Tail Risk Working Papers (2015), arXiv:1505.04722v2; Cirillo and Taleb, «The Decline of Violent Conflicts: What Do the Data Really Say?», в кн.: The Causes of Peace: What We Know Now, ed. Asle Toje and Bård Nikolas Vik Steen (Austin: Lioncrest, 2020), pp. 51–77; Bear F. Braumoeller, Only the Dead: The Persistence of War in the Modern Age (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2019); Aaron Clauset, «On the Frequency and Severity of Interstate Wars», в кн.: Lewis Fry Richardson: His Intellectual Legacy and Influence in the Social Sciences (Pioneers in Arts, Humanities, Science, Engineering, Practice, vol. 27), ed. Nils Gleditsch (Berlin: Springer, 2020), pp. 113–127.
86
Cirillo and Taleb, «Statistical Properties.»
87
Alfred W. Crosby, Ecological Imperialism: The Biological Expansion of Europe, 900-1900 (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1993). Критику воззрений Кросби на Колумбов обмен с акцентом на том, как влияли эксплуатация и порабощение на смертность коренного населения, см.: David S. Jones, «Virgin Soils Revisited», William and Mary Quarterly 60, no. 4 (2003), pp. 703–742. См. также: Noble David Cook, Born to Die: Disease and New World Conquest, 1492–1650 (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1998.)
88
Всестороннее обсуждение в кн.: Niall Ferguson, The War of the World: History’s Age of Hatred (London: Penguin Press, 2006), appendix, pp. 647–654.
89
Hayes, «Statistics of Deadly Quarrels», p. 12.
90
Robert J. Barro, «Rare Disasters and Asset Markets in the Twentieth Century», Quarterly Journal of Economics 121, no. 3 (2006): 823–866, table 1.
91
Причина столь серьезного спада в 1629 году неочевидна: да, война с Испанией шла плохо, но главным театром военных действий в тот год все же были Карибские острова. Специалистам в политической истории 1629 год известен прежде всего как начало 11-летнего «личного правления» Карла I при отсутствии парламента. (Прим. авт.)
92
John A. Eddy, «The Maunder Minimum», Science 192, no. 4245 (June 18, 1976), pp. 1189–1202. См. также: Stephanie Pain, «1709: The Year That Europe Froze», New Scientist, February 4, 2009, https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20126942-100-1709-the-year-that-europe-froze/.
93
Nicholas Dimsdale, Sally Hills, and Ryland Thomas, «The UK Recession in Context — What Do Three Centuries of Data Tell Us?» Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin (Q4 2010), pp. 277–291.
См. также: David Milliken and Andy Bruce, «Bank of England Sees Worst Slump in 300 Years as Coronavirus Bites», Reuters, May 6, 2020, https://www.reuters.com/article/ushealth-coronavirus-britain-boe/bankofengland-sees-worst-slumpin300-yearsascoronavirus-bites-idUSKBN22I3BV.
94
Gita Gopinath, «Reopening from the Great Lockdown: Uneven and Uncertain Recovery», IMFBlog, June 24, 2020, https://blogs.imf.org/2020/06/24/reopening-from-the-great-lockdown-uneven-and-uncertain-recovery/.
95
См. также: Leandro Prados de la Escosura, «Output per Head in Pre-Independence Africa: Quantitative Conjectures», Universidad Carlos III de Madrid Working Papers in Economic History (November 2012).
96
«Global Data», Fragile States Index, Fund for Peace, https://fragilestatesindex.org/data/.
97
Leandro Prados de la Escosura. «World Human Development: 1870–2007», EHES Working Paper No. 34 (January 2013).
98
Allison McCann, Jin Wu, and Josh Katz, «How the Coronavirus Compares with 100 Years of Deadly Events», New York Times, June 10, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/10/world/coronavirus-history.html. См. также: Jeremy Samuel Faust, Zhenqiu Lin, and Carlos del Rio, «Comparison of Estimated Excess Deaths in New York City During the COVID-19 and 1918 Influenza Pandemics», JAMA Network Open 3, no. 8 (2020), https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2769236.
99
Edgar Jones, «The Psychology of Protecting the UK Public Against External Threat: COVID-19 and the Blitz Compared», Lancet, August 27, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1016/S2215–0366 (20) 30342-4.
100
Организации, помеченные значком ♦, запрещены в РФ.
101
Эдуард Гиббон. История упадка и разрушения Римской империи. В 7 т. / Пер. В. Неведомского. СПб., 2004. Т. 7.
102
Lucretius, On the Nature of the Universe, trans. R. E. Latham, rev. ed. (Harmondsworth, UK: Penguin, 1994), pp. 64ff.
103
Herbert Butterfield, The Origins of History, ed. J. H. Adam Watson (London: Eyre Methuen 1981), p. 207.
104
Polybius, The Rise of the Roman Empire, trans. Ian Scott-Kilvert (Harmondsworth, UK: Penguin, 1979), pp. 41, 44; Tacitus, The Histories, trans. Kenneth Wellesley (Harmondsworth, UK: Penguin, 1975), p. 17. [На русском языке: Полибий. Всеобщая история в сорока книгах. Т. II, кн. VI–XXV / Пер. Ф. Мищенко. СПб., Наука, 2005. С. 9; Корнелий Тацит. Сочинения в двух томах. Том II. История / Пер. Г. Кнабе. М., Ладомир, 1993.]
105
Полибий. Всеобщая история в сорока книгах / Пер. Ф. Мищенко. СПб., 2005. Т. II, кн. VI–XXV.
106
Butterfield, Origins of History, p. 125.
107
Michael Puett, «Classical Chinese Historical Thought», in A Companion to Global Historical Thought, ed. Prasenjit Duara, Viren Murthy, and Andrew Sartori (Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley, 2014), pp. 34–46. См. также: Edwin O. Reischauer, «The Dynastic Cycle», in The Pattern of Chinese History, ed. John Meskill (Lexington, KY: D. C. Heath, 1965), pp. 31–33.
108
Джамбаттиста Вико. Основания новой науки об общей природе наций / Пер. А. Губера. М., 1994.
109
Giambattista Vico, «The New Science», in Theories of History, ed. Patrick Gardiner (New York: Free Press, 1959), pp. 18f. [На русском языке: Джамбаттиста Вико. Основания новой науки об общей природе наций / Пер. А. Губера. М., 1994. С. 114–115.]
110
Pieter Geyl and Arnold Toynbee, «Can We Know the Pattern of the Past? A Debate», в кн.: Theories of History, ed. Patrick Gardiner (New York: Free Press, 1959), pp. 308ff. О монументальном труде Тойнби «Постижение истории» (A Study of History), некогда влиятельном, а ныне почти забытом, см.: Arthur Marwick, The Nature of History, 3 rd ed. (London: Palgrave Macmillan, 1989), pp. 287f.
111
Полное название — «Исследование о природе и причинах богатства народов».
112
Карл Маркс. Капитал. Полная версия. М., 2020.
113
Karl Marx, Das Kapital: A Critique of Political Economy, trans. Serge L. Levitsky (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2012), vol. I, chapter 32. [На русском языке: Карл Маркс. Капитал. Полная версия / М., АСТ: ОГИЗ, 2020. С. 268.]
114
David C. Baker, «The Roman Dominate from the Perspective of Demographic-Structure Theory», Cliodynamics 2, no. 2 (2011), pp. 217–251.
115
Leonid Grinin, «State and Socio-Political Crises in the Process of Modernization», Cliodynamics 3, no. 1 (2012).
116
A. Korotayev et al., «A Trap at the Escape from the Trap? Demographic-Structural Factors of Political Instability in Modern Africa and West Asia», Cliodynamics 2, no. 2 (2011), p. 289.
117
H. Urdal, «People vs. Malthus: Population Pressure, Environmental Degradation, and Armed Conflict Revisited», Journal of Peace Research 42, no. 4 (July 2005), p. 430; H. Urdal, «A Clash of Generations? Youth Bulges and Political Violence», International Studies Quarterly 50 (September 2006), pp. 617, 624.
118
Jack A. Goldstone et al., «A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability», American Journal of Political Science, 54, 1 (January 2010), pp. 190–208. См. также: J. A. Goldstone, Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1991).
119
Отец и сын (фр.).
120
Arthur M. Schlesinger Jr., The Cycles of American History (New York: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 1986).
121
William Strauss and Neil Howe, The Fourth Turning: What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America’s Next Rendezvous with Destiny (New York: Three Rivers Press, 2009 [1997]).
122
Robert Huebscher, «Neil Howe — The Pandemic and the Fourth Turning», Advisor Perspectives, May 20, 2020, https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2020/05/20/neil-howe-and-turning.
123
См., напр.: W. R. Thompson, «Synthesizing Secular, Demographic-Structural, Climate, and Leadership Long Cycles: Moving Toward Explaining Domestic and World Politics in the Last Millennium», Cliodynamics 1, no. 1 (2010), pp. 26–57.
124
Ian Morris, «The Evolution of War», Cliodynamics 3, no. 1 (2012). См. также: S. Gavrilets, David G. Anderson, and Peter Turchin, «Cycling in the Complexity of Early Societies», Cliodynamics 1, no. 1 (2010), pp. 58–80.
125
Qiang Chen, «Climate Shocks, Dynastic Cycles, and Nomadic Conquests: Evidence from Historical China», School of Economics, Shandong University (October 2012).
126
См., напр.: Michael J Storozum et al., «The Collapse of the North Song Dynasty and the AD 1048–1128 Yellow River Floods: Geoarchaeological Evidence from Northern Henan Province, China», Holocene 28, no. 11 (2018), https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683618788682.
127
Peter Turchin, Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2003), p. 93.
128
Peter Turchin, War and Peace and War: The Rise and Fall of Empires (New York: Plume, 2006), p. 163.
129
Peter Turchin and Sergey A. Nefedov, Secular Cycles (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2009).
130
Петр Турчин, Сергей Нефедов. Вековые циклы / Пер. С. Нефедова.
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Минимумы названы в честь британских астрономов Эдварда Уолтера Маундера и его жены Энни, основоположников изучения солнечных пятен, и немца Германа Густава Шпёрера, который первым обнаружил низкую солнечную активность после 1618 года. (Прим. авт.)
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265
Моментная магнитуда, или магнитуда по сейсмическому моменту, – предпочитаемая в настоящее время мера измерения силы («величины») землетрясений. Именно в ней ее показатели, насколько это возможно, приведены в данной книге. Она отличается от более старой и привычной шкалы Рихтера, для градуировки которой использовались локальные магнитуды. Сейсмический момент пропорционален подвижке по разрыву (смещению вдоль разлома), умноженной на площадь смещающейся поверхности разлома. Это более подходящая мера для очень крупных землетрясений. (Прим. авт.)
266
Официальное название – Землетрясение в Тихом океане, оказавшее влияние на регион Тохоку.
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L. Dethlefsen et al., «An Ecological and Evolutionary Perspective on Human-Microbe Mutualism and Disease», Nature 449 (October 2007), pp. 811–818.
401
Фукидид. История / Пер. и примеч. Г. Стратановского. Отв. ред. Я. Боровский. Л., 1981.
402
Там же.
403
Thucydides, The History of the Peloponnesian War, trans. Richard Crawley (Project Gutenberg, 2009), book I, chap. 1. [На русском языке: Фукидид. История / Пер. и примеч. Г. Стратановского. Отв. ред. Я. Боровский. Л., Наука, 1981. Кн. I. С. 14.]
404
Фукидид. Указ. соч.
405
Там же.
406
Там же.
407
Фукидид. Указ. соч.
408
Kyle Harper, The Fate of Rome: Climate, Disease, and the End of an Empire (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2017).
409
Насколько можно судить, у автора эта фраза соотнесена с эпидемией 165–192 годов, но сам Гиббон в данном случае говорит о другой эпидемии, которая поразила Римскую империю в 250–265 годах.
410
Эдуард Гиббон. Указ. соч. Т. 1.
411
Edward Gibbon, The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire (New York: Harper & Bros., 1836), vol. I, chap. 10, part IV. [На русском языке: Эдуард Гиббон. История упадка и разрушения Римской империи. В 7 т. Т. 1 / Пер. В. Неведомского. М., Наука, 2006. Гл. X.]
412
Guido Alfani and Tommy E. Murphy, «Plague and Lethal Epidemics in the Pre-Industrial World», Journal of Economic History 77, no. 1 (March 2017), pp. 316f.
413
R. P. Duncan-Jones, «The Impact of the Antonine Plague», Journal of Roman Archaeology 9 (1996), pp. 108-36, https://doi:10.1017/S1047759400016524; R. P. Duncan-Jones, «The Antonine Plague Revisited», Arctos 52 (2018), pp. 41–72.
414
Rodney Stark, «Epidemics, Networks, and the Rise of Christianity», Semeia 56 (1992), pp. 159-75.
415
Эдуард Гиббон. Указ. соч. Т. 4.
416
Там же.
417
Gibbon, The Decline and Fall, vol. IV, chap. 43, part IV. [На русском языке: Эдуард Гиббон. История упадка и разрушения Римской империи. В 7 т. Т. 4. / Пер. В. Неведомского. М., Наука, 2006. Гл. XLIII.]
418
Там же.
419
Gibbon, The Decline and Fall. [На русском языке: Эдуард Гиббон. История упадка и разрушения Римской империи. В 7 т. Т. 4 / Пер. В. Неведомского. М., Наука, 2006. Гл. XLIII.]
420
Там же.
421
Lee Mordechai et al., «The Justinianic Plague: An inconsequential Pandemic?» PNAS 116, no. 51 (2019), pp. 25546-25554, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1903797116.
422
Elizabeth Kolbert, «Pandemics and the Shape of Human History», New Yorker, March 30, 2020, https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/04/06/pandemics-and-the-shapeofhuman-history.
423
Эдуард Гиббон. Указ. соч. Т. 4.
424
Gibbon, Decline and Fall, vol. IV, chap. 43, part IV. [На русском языке: Эдуард Гиббон. История упадка и разрушения Римской империи. В 7 т. Т. 4 / Пер. В. Неведомского. М., Наука, 2006. Гл. XLIII.]
425
Matthew O. Jackson, Brian W. Rogers, and Yves Zenou, «Connections in the Modern World: Network-Based Insights», VoxEU & CEPR, March 6, 2015, https://voxeu.org/article/network-based-insights-economists.
426
J. Theilmann and Frances Cate, «A Plague of Plagues: The Problem of Plague Diagnosis in Medieval England», Journal of Interdisciplinary History 37, no. 3 (2007), pp. 371–393.
427
M. Drancourt et al., «Yersinia pestis Orientalis in Remains of Ancient Plague Patients», Emerging Infectious Diseases 13, no. 2 (2007), pp. 332–333; S. Haensch et al., «Distinct Clones of Yersinia pestis Caused the Black Death», PLOS Pathogens 6, no. 10 (2010), pp. 1–8.
428
Manny Rincon Cruz, «Contagion, Borders, and Scale: Lessons from Network Science and History», Hoover History Working Group, June 24, 2020.
429
Mark Bailey, «After the Black Death: Society, Economy and the Law in Fourteenth-Century England», James Ford Lectures, 2019, Lecture 1: «Old Problems, New Approaches», https://www.history.ox.ac.uk/event/the-james-ford-lectures-old-problems-new-approaches.
430
Mark Bailey, «After the Black Death», Lecture 2: «Reaction and Regulation», https://www.history.ox.ac.uk/event/the-james-ford-lectures-reaction-and-regulation.
431
N. C. Stenseth et al., «Plague Dynamics Are Driven by Climate Variation», PNAS 103, no. 35 (2006), pp. 13110-13115.
432
Mark R. Welford and Brian H. Bossak, «Validation of Inverse Seasonal Peak Mortality in Medieval Plagues, Including the Black Death, in Comparison to Modern Yersinia pestis-Variant Diseases», PLOS One 4, no. 12 (2009), pp. 1–6.
433
Stenseth et al., «Plague Dynamics».
434
Stenseth et al., «Plague Dynamics». См. также: Ayyadurai et al., «Body Lice.»
435
Ferguson, Square and the Tower, p. 431.
436
Rincon Cruz, «Contagion, Borders, and Scale.» См. также: Mark Koyama, Remi Jedwab, and Noel Johnson, «Pandemics, Places, and Populations: Evidence from the Black Death», Centre for Economic Policy Research Discussion Paper No. 13523 (2019).
437
Maarten Bosker, Steven Brakman, Harry Garretsen, Herman De Jong, and Marc Schramm, «Ports, Plagues and Politics: Explaining Italian City Growth 1300–1861», European Review of Economic History 12, no. 1 (2008), pp. 97-131, https://doi.org/10.1017/S1361491608002128.
438
Ricardo A. Olea and George Christakos. «Duration of Urban Mortality for the 14th-century Black Death Epidemic», Human Biology 77, no. 3 (2005), pp. 291–303, https://doi.org/10.1353/hub.2005.0051.
439
José M. Gómez and Miguel Verdú, «Network Theory May Explain the Vulnerability of Medieval Human Settlements to the Black Death Pandemic», Nature Scientific Reports, March 6, 2017, https://www.nature.com/articles/srep43467.
440
Oscar Jorda, Sanjay R. Singh, and Alan M. Taylor, «Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics», Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper 202009 (March 2020).
441
Gregory Clark, A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2007). См. также: Paul Schmelzing, «Eight Centuries of Global Real Rates, RG, and the ‘Suprasecular Decline’, 1311–2018» (PhD diss., Harvard University, August 2019).
442
Mark Bailey, «A Mystery Within an Enigma: The Economy, 1355–1375», Ford Lectures 2019, Lecture 3, https://www.history.ox.ac.uk/event/the-james-ford-lecturesamystery-withinanenigma-the-economy-135575.
443
Mark Bailey, «The End of Serfdom and the Rise of the West», Ford Lectures 2019, Lecture 6. https://www.history.ox.ac.uk/event/the-james-ford-lectures-the-endofserfdom-and-the-riseofthe-west.
444
Mark Bailey, «Injustice and Revolt», Ford Lectures 2019, Lecture 4, https://www.history.ox.ac.uk/event/the-james-ford-lectures-injustice-and-revolt.
445
Mark Bailey, «A New Equilibrium», Ford Lectures 2019, Lecture 5, https://www.history.ox.ac.uk/event/the-james-ford-lecturesanew-equilibriumc.1375–1400.
446
Bailey, «The End of Serfdom», Ford Lectures 2019, Lecture 6.
447
Alexander Lee, «What Machiavelli Knew About Pandemics», New Statesman, June 3, 2020, https://www.newstatesman.com/2020/06/what-machiavelli-knew-about-pandemics; Eleanor Russell and Martin Parker, «How Pandemics Past and Present Fuel the Rise of Mega-Corporations», The Conversation, June 3, 2020, https://theconversation.com/how-pandemics-past-and-present-fuel-the-riseofmega-corporations-137732; Paula Findlen, «What Would Boccaccio Say About COVID-19?», Boston Review, April 24, 2020, http://bostonreview.net/arts-society/paula-findlen-what-would-boccaccio-say-about-covid19.
448
Richard Trexler, Public Life in Renaissance Florence (New York: Academic Press, 1980), p. 362.
449
Norman Cohn, The Pursuit of the Millennium (New York: Oxford University Press, 1961 [1957]), pp. 132f.
450
Nico Voigtlander and Hans-Joachim Voth, «Persecution Perpetuated: The Medieval Origins of Anti-Semitic Violence in Nazi Germany», Quarterly Journal of Economics 127, no. 3 (August 2012), pp. 1339–1392, https://www.jstor.org/stable/23251987.
451
Samuel K. Cohn Jr., «The Black Death and the Burning of Jews», Past and Present 196 (August 2007), pp. 3-36.
452
Cohn, «The Black Death», pp. 87, 136–140.
453
M. W. Flinn, «Plague in Europe and the Mediterranean Countries», Journal of European Economic History 8, no. 1 (1979), pp. 134–147.
454
Пер. Т. Щепкиной-Куперник. Уильям Шекспир. Ромео и Джульетта. Акт III, сцена 1.
455
Пер. М. Лозинского. Уильям Шекспир. Двенадцатая ночь, или Что Угодно. Акт I, сцена 5.
456
Stephen Greenblatt, «What Shakespeare Actually Wrote About the Plague», New Yorker, May 7, 2020.
457
Daniel Defoe, A Journal of the Plague Year (London: Penguin, 2003 [1722]).
458
Charles F. Mullett, «The English Plague Scare of 1720-30», Osiris 2 (1936), pp. 484–516.
459
Даниэль Дефо. Дневник чумного года / Пер. К. Атаровой. М., 1997.
460
Defoe, Journal, pp. 18f.
461
Там же.
462
Defoe, Journal, p. 172.
463
Даниэль Дефо. Указ. соч.
464
Defoe, Journal, p. 66.
465
Эдуард Гиббон. Указ. соч. Т. 4.
466
Gibbon, Decline and Fall, vol. IV, chap. 43, part IV. [На русском языке: Эдуард Гиббон. История упадка и разрушения Римской империи. В 7 т. Т. 4 / Пер. В. Неведомского. М., Нака, 2006. Гл. XLIII.]
467
Даниэль Дефо. Указ. соч.
468
Defoe, Journal, p. 9.
469
Там же.
470
Defoe, Journal, pp. 40f.
471
Цит. по: Roy MacLeod and M. Lewis, eds., Disease, Medicine and Empire: Perspectives on Western Medicine and the Experience of European Expansion (London and New York: Routledge, 1988), p. 7.
472
Niall Ferguson, Civilization: The West and the Rest (New York: Penguin Press, 2011).
473
John Jennings White III, «Typhus: Napoleon’s Tragic Invasion of Russia, the War of 1812», in Epidemics and War: The Impact of Disease on Major Conflicts in History, ed. Rebecca M. Seaman (Santa Barbara, CA: ABC–CLIO, 2018), pp. 74f.
474
Richard Bonney, The Thirty Years’ War 1618–1648 (New York: Bloomsbury, 2014).
475
T. Nguyen-Hieu et al., «Evidence of a Louse-Borne Outbreak Involving Typhus in Douai, 1710–1712 During the War of the Spanish Succession», PLOS One 5, no. 10 (2010), pp. 1–8. См. в целом: Joseph M. Conlon, «The Historical Impact of Epidemic Typhus» (2009), www.entomology.montana.edu./historybug/TYPHUS-Conlon.pdf
476
Dominic Lieven, Russia Against Napoleon: The True Story of the Campaigns of War and Peace (New York: Penguin Publishing Group, 2010).
477
D. Raoult et al., «Evidence for Louse-Transmitted Diseases in Soldiers of Napoleon’s Grand Army in Vilnius», Journal of Infectious Diseases 193 (2006), pp. 112–120.
478
Alfred W. Crosby, Ecological Imperialism: The Biological Expansion of Europe, 900-1900 (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1993); Noble David Cook, Born to Die: Disease and New World Conquest, 1492–1650 (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1998). Критика представлений о «девственной земле» с акцентом на том, как влияли эксплуатация и порабощение на смертность среди коренного населения: David S. Jones, «Virgin Soils Revisited», William and Mary Quarterly 60, no. 4 (2003), pp. 703–742.
479
Angus Chen, «One of History’s Worst Epidemics May Have Been Caused by a Common Microbe», Science, January 16, 2018, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aat0253.
480
Во время первого Дня благодарения в американской истории.
481
Niall Ferguson, Empire: How Britain Made the Modern World (London: Penguin, 2003), p. 65.
482
Ранее возникла теория, согласно которой инфекционные болезни, вызываемые трепонемами, существовали в Европе еще в доколумбову эпоху в качестве передаваемых через кожу тропических невенерических трепонематозов, а сифилис распространился там лишь после того, как улучшилась гигиена – и пошли на убыль как трепонематозы (например, невенерический сифилис), так и перекрестный иммунитет к сифилису. Более современные исследования эту теорию развенчали. (Прим. авт.)
483
John E. Lobdell and Douglas Owsley, «The Origin of Syphilis», Journal of Sex Research 10, no. 1 (1974), pp. 76–79; Bruce M. Rothschild et al., «First European Exposure to Syphilis: The Dominican Republic at the Time of Columbian Contact», Clinical Infectious Diseases 31, no. 4 (2000), pp. 936–941; Robert M. May et al., «Infectious Disease Dynamics: What Characterizes a Successful Invader?» Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society 356 (2001), pp. 901–910; Bruce M. Rothschild, «History of Syphilis», Clinical Infectious Diseases 40, no. 10 (2005), pp. 1454–1463; George J. Armelagos et al., «The Science Behind Pre-Columbian Evidence of Syphilis in Europe: Research by Documentary», Evolutionary Anthropology 21 (2012), pp. 50–57.
484
Свидетельства слишком неубедительны и не выдерживают критики. Если говорить о медицинских проблемах, то Генрих VIII прежде всего страдал от язв на ногах и ожирения. (Прим. авт.)
485
Dorothy H. Crawford, Deadly Companions: How Microbes Shaped Our History (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2007), pp. 129ff.
486
J. R. McNeill, Mosquito Empires: Ecology and War in the Greater Caribbean, 1620–1914 (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2010); Jason Sharman, Empires of the Weak: The Real Story of European Expansion and the Creation of the New World Order (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2019).
487
M. B. A. Oldstone, Viruses, Plagues, and History: Past, Present and Future (Oxford and New York: Oxford University Press, 2010), p. 103. См. также: J. R. McNeill, «Yellow Jack and Geopolitics: Environment, Epidemics, and the Struggles for Empire in the American Tropics, 1650–1825», OAH Magazine of History, April 2004, pp. 9-13.
488
McNeill, «Yellow Jack».
489
Emmanuel Le Roy Ladurie, «A Concept: The Unification of the Globe by Disease», in The Mind and Method of the Historian (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1981), pp. 28–91.
490
Ferguson, Empire, pp. 70, 170.
491
Ferguson, Civilization, p. 168.
492
Луи-Фердинанд Селин. Путешествие на край ночи / Пер. Ю. Корнеева. М., 1994.
493
Louis-Ferdinand Céline, Journey to the End of the Night, trans. Ralph Manheim (New York: New Directions, 2006 [1934]), p. 126.
494
Ныне это города Мумбаи и Тхана.
495
Ferguson, Empire, pp. 167–170.
496
К сожалению, этому не придает внимания следующий источник: William Dalrymple, The Anarchy: The East India Company, Corporate Violence and the Pillage of an Empire (New York: Bloomsbury, 2019).
497
Stephen M. Kaciv, Eric J. Frehm, and Alan S. Segal, «Case Studies in Cholera: Lessons in Medical History and Science», Yale Journal of Biology and Medicine 72 (1999), pp. 393–408. См. также: Jim Harris, «Pandemics: Today and Yesterday», Origins 13, no. 10 (2020).
498
R. E. McGrew, «The First Cholera Epidemic and Social History», Bulletin of the History of Medicine 34, no. 1 (January – February 1960), pp. 61–73.
499
Richard J. Evans, Death in Hamburg: Society and Politics in the Cho lera Years, 1830–1910 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1987), p. 313.
500
M. Echenberg, «Pestis Redux: The Initial Years of the Third Bubonic Plague Pandemic, 1894–1901», Journal of World History 13, no. 2 (2002), pp. 429–449.
501
Ballard C. Campbell, Disasters, Accidents, and Crises in American History: A Reference Guide to the Nation’s Most Catastrophic Events (New York, 2008), pp. 182–184.
502
Sarah F. Vanneste, «The Black Death and the Future of Medicine» (unpublished master’s thesis, Wayne State University, 2010), pp. 41, 77.
503
Alexander Lee, «What Machiavelli Knew About Pandemics», New Statesman, June 3, 2020, https://www.newstatesman.com/2020/06/what-machiavelli-knew-about-pandemics.
504
Nancy G Siraisi, Medieval and Early Renaissance Medicine: An Introduction to Knowledge and Practice (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1990); Ismail H. Abdalla, «Diffusion of Islamic Medicine into Hausaland», in The Social Basis of Health and Healing in Africa, ed. Steven Feierman and John M. Janzen (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1992).
505
Richard Palmer, «The Church, Leprosy, and Plague in Medieval and Early Modern Europe», in The Church and Healing, ed. W. J. Shiels (Oxford: Basil Blackwell, 1982), p. 96.
506
S. White, «Rethinking Disease in Ottoman History», International Journal of Middle East Studies 42 (2010), p. 554.
507
Manny Rincon Cruz, «Contagion, Borders, and Scale: Lessons from Network Science and History», Hoover History Working Group, June 24, 2020.
508
Gianfranco Gensini, Magdi H. Yacoub, and Andrea A. Conti, «The Concept of Quarantine in History: From Plague to Sars», Journal of Infection 49, no. 4 (November 1, 2004), pp. 257–261; Eugenia Tognotti, «Lessons from the History of Quarantine, from Plague to Influenza A», Emerging Infectious Diseases 19, no. 2 (February 2013), pp. 254–259.
509
От итал. quarantena – сорок дней.
510
Frank M. Snowden, Epidemics and Society: From the Black Death to the Present (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2019), p. 70.
511
See John Henderson, Florence Under Siege: Surviving Plague in an Early Modern City (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2019).
512
Rincon Cruz, «Contagion, Borders, and Scale».
513
Около 46 метров.
514
Alexander William Kinglake, Eothen, or Traces of Travel Brought Home from the East (New York: D. Appleton, 1899 [1844]), p. 1.
515
A. Wess Mitchell and Charles Ingrao, «Emperor Joseph’s Solution to Coronavirus», Wall Street Journal, April 6, 2020, https://www.wsj.com/articles/emperor-josephs-solutiontocoronavirus-11586214561; Snowden, Epidemics and Society, pp. 72–73; Gunther Rothenberg, «The Austrian Sanitary Cordon and the Control of the Bubonic Plague: 1710–1871», Journal of the History of Medicine and Allied Sciences 28, no. 1 (1973), pp. 15–23.
516
Simon Schama, «Plague Time: Simon Schama on What History Tells Us», Financial Times, April 10, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/279dee4a-740b-11ea-95fe-fcd274e920ca.
517
Norman Howard-Jones, «Fracastoro and Henle: A Re-Appraisal of Their Contribution to the Concept of Communicable
Diseases», Medical History 21, no. 1 (1977), pp. 61–68, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0025727300037170; V. Nutton, «The Reception of Fracastoro’s Theory of Contagion: The Seed That Fell Among Thorns?» Osiris 6 (1990), pp. 196–234.
518
Ferguson, Empire, p. 9.
519
Cary P. Gross and Kent A. Sepkowitz, «The Myth of the Medical Breakthrough: Smallpox, Vaccination, and Jenner Reconsidered», International Journal of Infectious Disease 3 (1998), pp. 54–60; S. Riedel, «Edward Jenner and the History of Smallpox and Vaccination», Baylor University Medical Center Proceedings 18 (2005), pp. 21–25.
520
John D. Burton, «‘The Awful Judgements of God upon the Land’: Smallpox in Colonial Cambridge, Massachusetts», New England Quarterly 74, no. 3, (2001), pp. 495–506. См. также: Elizabeth A. Fenn, Pox Americana: The Great Smallpox Epidemic of 1775-82 (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2002).
521
Gross and Sepkowitz, «Myth of the Medical Breakthrough», p. 57.
522
Burton, «Awful Judgements of God», p. 499.
523
Edward Edwardes, A Concise History of Small-pox and Vaccination in Europe (London: H. K. Lewis, 1902).
524
Charles E. Rosenberg, The Cholera Years: The United States in 1832, 1849, and 1866 (Chicago and London: University of Chicago Press, 1987), pp. 66f.
525
Dona Schneider and David E. Lilienfeld, «History and Scope of Epidemiology», in Lilienfeld’s Foundations of Epidemiology, 4th ed. (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2015), pp. 1-53.
526
V. Curtis, «Dirt, Disgust and Disease: A Natural History of Hygiene», Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health 61 (2007), pp. 660-64; M. Best and D. Neuhauser, «Ignaz Semmelweis and the Birth of Infection Control», Quality and Safety in Health Care 13 (2004), pp. 233–234; K. Codell Carter, «Ignaz Semmelweis, Carl Mayrhofer, and the Rise of Germ Theory», Medical History 29 (1985), pp. 33–53; K. Codell Carter, «Koch’s Postulates in Relation to the Work of Jacob Henle and Edwin Klebs», Medical History 29 (1985), pp. 353–374.
527
Muhammad H. Zaman, Biography of Resistance: The Epic Battle between People and Pathogens (New York: HarperWave, 2020).
528
Sheldon Watts, Epidemics and History (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1997), p. xii.
529
A. Lustig and A. J. Levine, «One Hundred Years of Virology», Journal of Virology 66, no. 2 (1992), pp. 4629–4631.
530
J. Erin Staples and Thomas P. Monath, «Yellow Fever: 100 Years of Discovery», Journal of the American Medical Association 300, no. 8, (2008), pp. 960–962.
531
J. Gordon Frierson, «The Yellow Fever Vaccine: A History», Yale Journal of Biological Medicine 83, no. 2 (June 2010), pp. 77–85.
532
Ferguson, Civilization, p. 147.
533
Ferguson, Civilization, pp. 169f., 174.
534
Frierson, «Yellow Fever Vaccine».
535
McGrew, «First Cholera Epidemic», p. 72.
536
Theodore H. Friedgut, «Labor Violence and Regime Brutality in Tsarist Russia: The Iuzovka Cholera Riots of 1892», Slavic Review 46, no. 2 (Summer 1987), pp. 245–265.
537
Richard L. Stefanik, «The Smallpox Riots of 1894», Milwaukee County Historical Society Historical Messenger 26, no. 4 (December 1970), pp. 1–4.
538
Echenberg, «Pestis Redux», pp. 443f.
539
Valeska Huber, «The Unification of the Globe by Disease? The International Sanitary Conferences on Cholera, 1851–1894», Historical Journal 49, no. 2 (2006), pp. 453–476. См. также: Andrew Ehrhardt, «Disease and Diplomacy in the 19th Century», War on the Rocks (blog), April 30, 2020, https://warontherocks.com/2020/04/disease-and-diplomacyinthe-nineteenth-century/.
540
Peter Baldwin, Contagion and the State in Europe, 1830–1930 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1999).
541
Echenberg, «Pestis Redux», pp. 443f.
542
Mahatma Gandhi, Hind Swaraj (New Delhi: Rajpal & Sons, 2010), p. 30.
543
Ferguson, Civilization, p. 146.
544
Ferguson, Civilization, pp. 171f., 175.
545
William H. McNeill, Plagues and Peoples (Garden City, NY: Anchor, 1998 [1976]), p. 182.
546
James C. Riley, «Insects and the European Mortality Decline», American Historical Review 91, no. 4 (October 1986), pp. 833–858.
547
Rosenberg, Cholera Years, pp. 206–210.
548
David Cutler and Grant Miller, «The Role of Public Health Improvements in Health Advances: The 20th Century United States», NBER Working Paper No. 10511 (May 2004).
549
George Bernard Shaw, The Doctor’s Dilemma (London: Penguin, 1946), pp. 64f.
550
Современный эквивалент – презренные 19 галлонов (ок. 86 л). Впрочем, содержание алкоголя в современном пиве, как правило, выше, чем в прежние времена. (Прим. авт.)
551
Ian Gazeley and Andrew Newell, «Urban Working-Class Food Consumption and Nutrition in Britain in 1904», Economic History Review 68, no. 1 (February 2015), p. 17.
552
Andrew T. Newell and Ian Gazeley, «The Declines in Infant Mortality and Fertility: Evidence from British Cities in Demographic Transition», IZA Discussion Paper No. 6855 (October 2012), p. 17.
553
V. Huber, «The Unification of the Globe by Disease? The International Sanitary Conferences on Cholera, 1851–1894», The Historical Journal 49, no. 2 (2006), pp. 466f.
554
Nigel Jones, Rupert Brooke: Life, Death and Myth (London: Head of Zeus, 2015), p. 60.
555
Victoria Y. Fan, Dean T. Jamison, and Lawrence H. Summers, «Pandemic Risk: How Large Are the Expected Losses?» Bulletin of the World Health Organization 96 (2018), pp. 129–134, http://dx.doi.org/10.2471/BLT.17.199588.
556
D. E. Kilbourne, «Influenza Pandemics of the 20th Century», Emerging Infectious Diseases 12, no. 1 (2006), pp. 9-14.
557
Niall Ferguson, «Black Swans, Dragon Kings and Gray Rhinos: The World War of 1914–1918 and the Pandemic of 2020-?», Hoover History Working Paper 20201 (May 2020).
558
Christopher Clark, The Sleepwalkers: How Europe Went to War in 1914 (New York: HarperCollins, 2012).
559
Niall Ferguson, The War of the World: Twentieth-Century Conflict and the Descent of the West (New York: Penguin Press, 2006).
560
Charles S. Maier, Recasting Bourgeois Europe: Stabilization in France, Germany, and Italy in the Decade After World War I (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1975).
561
Barry Eichengreen, Golden Fetters: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression, 1919–1939 (New York and Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1992).
562
Charles P. Kindleberger, The World in Depression, 1929–1939 (Berkeley: University of California Press, 2013 [1973]).
563
Niall Philip Alan Sean Johnson, «Aspects of the Historical Geography of the 1918-19 Influenza Pandemic in Britain» (unpublished PhD diss., Cambridge University, 2001), p. 116.
564
Jeffery K. Taubenberger and David M. Morens, «1918 Influenza: The Mother of All Pandemics.» Emerging Infectious Diseases 12, no. 1 (January 2006), pp. 15–22.
565
Edwin D. Kilbourne, «Influenza Pandemics of the 20th Century», Emerging Infectious Diseases 12, no. 1 (2006), pp. 9-14.
566
Alfred W. Crosby, America’s Forgotten Pandemic: The Influenza of 1918, 2nd ed. (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2003), p. 19; Eugene Opie et al., «Pneumonia at Camp Funston», Journal of the American Medical Association 72 (January 1919), pp. 114f.
567
Niall Ferguson, The Pity of War: Understanding World War I (New York: Basic Books, 1998), pp. 342f.
568
Johnson, «Aspects of the Historical Geography», pp. 177ff., 355.
569
Crosby, America’s Forgotten Pandemic, p. 37.
570
Alexander W. Peters, «Influenza and the Press in 1918», Concord Review 14, no. 2 (Winter 2003), https://www.tcr.org/Influenza/.
571
Niall P. A. S. Johnson and Juergen Mueller, «Updating the Accounts: Global Mortality of the 1918–1920 ‘Spanish’ Influenza Pandemic», Bulletin of the History of Medicine 76 (2002), pp. 105–115. См. также: Robert J. Barro, José F. Ursúa, and Joanna Weng, «The Coronavirus and the Great Influenza Pandemic: Lessons from the ‘Spanish Flu’ for the Coronavirus’s Potential Effects on Mortality and Economic Activity», NBER Working Paper No. 26866 (2020).
572
Johnson, «Aspects of the Historical Geography», pp. 76, 234.
573
Carol R. Byerly, «War Losses (USA)», International Encyclopedia of the First World War, October 8, 2014, https://encyclopedia.1914–1918-online.net/article/war_losses_usa/20141008.
574
T. A. Garrett, «Economic Effects of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic Implications for a Modern-Day Pandemic», Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (November 2007).
575
Elizabeth Brainard and Mark V. Siegler, «The Economic Effects of the 1918 Influenza Epidemic», Centre for Economic Policy Research Discussion Paper No. 3791 (February 2003).
576
Katherine Ann Porter, «Pale Horse, Pale Rider», in Pale Horse, Pale Rider: Three Short Novels (New York: Literary Classics, 2008).
577
Johnson, «Aspects of the Historical Geography», pp. 298, 314.
578
Johnson, «Aspects of the Historical Geography», p. 423.
579
Johnson, «Aspects of the Historical Geography», pp. 258n., 269, 283.
580
Crosby, America’s Forgotten Pandemic, pp. 64f.
581
Brainard and Siegler, «Economic Effects».
582
Garrett, «Economic Effects», tables 1 and 3, pp. 13–15.
583
Sergio Correia, Stephan Luck, and Emil Verner, «Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu», March 26, 2020, доступно в источнике: SSRN, https://ssrn.com/abstract=3561560; Andrew Lilley, Matthew Lilley, and Gianluca Rinaldi, «Public Health Interventions and Economic Growth: Revisiting the Spanish Flu Evidence», May 2, 2020, доступно в источнике: SSRN, https://ssrn.com/abstract=3590008; Sergio Correia, Stephan Luck, and Emil Verner, «Response to Lilley, Lilley, and Rinaldi (2020)», May 15, 2020, https://almlgr.github.io/CLV_response.pdf.
584
Crosby, America’s Forgotten Pandemic, pp. 52f.
585
Francesco Aimone, «The 1918 Influenza Epidemic in New York City: A Review of the Public Health Response», Public Health Reports 125, supp. 3 (2010), pp. 71–79, doi:10.1177/00333549101250S310.
586
Peters, «Influenza and the Press».
587
H. Markel et al., «Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Implemented by U. S. Cities During the 1918–1919 Influenza Pandemic», JAMA 298, no. 6 (2007), pp. 644–654, doi:10.1001/jama.298.6.644.
588
Crosby, America’s Forgotten Pandemic, pp. 93-119.
589
Paul Roderick Gregory, «Coronavirus and the Great Lockdown: A Non-Biological Black Swan», RealClear Markets, May 5, 2020, https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2020/05/05/coronavirus_and_the_great_lockdown_a_non-biological_black_swan_490756.html.
590
Barro, Ursúa, and Weng, «Coronavirus and the Great Influenza Pandemic.»
591
Dave Donaldson and Daniel Keniston, «How Positive Was the Positive Check? Investment and Fertility in the Aftermath of the 1918 Influenza in India», October 24, 2014,http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.704.7779&rep=rep1&type=pdf.
592
Amanda Guimbeauy, Nidhiya Menonz, and Aldo Musacchio, «The Brazilian Bombshell? The Short and Long-Term Impact of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic the South American Way», November 21, 2019, available at SSRN, https://ssrn.com/abstract=3381800 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3381800.
593
Garrett, «Economic Effects».
594
François R. Velde, «What Happened to the U. S. Economy During the 1918 Influenza Pandemic? A View Through High-Frequency Data», Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, April 10, 2020.
595
Christina D. Romer, «World War I and the Postwar Depression:
A Reinterpretation Based on Alternative Estimates of GDP», Journal of Monetary Economics 22 (1988), pp. 91-115.
596
Brainard and Siegler, «Economic Effects».
597
Douglas Almond, «Is the 1918 Influenza Pandemic Over? Long-Term Effect of In Utero Influenza Exposure in the Post-1940 U. S. Population», Journal of Political Economy 114, no. 4 (2006), p. 673.
598
Mikko Myrskylä, Neil K. Mehta, and Virginia W. Chang, «Early Life Exposure to the 1918 Influenza Pandemic and Old-Age Mortality by Cause of Death», American Journal of Public Health 103, no. 7 (July 2013), pp. E83 – E90.
599
Tommy Bengtsson and Jonas Helgertz, «The Long Lasting Influenza: The Impact of Fetal Stress During the 1918 Influenza Pandemic on Socioeconomic Attainment and Health in Sweden 1968–2012», IZA Discussion Paper No. 9327 (September 2015), pp. 1-40.
600
Richard E. Nelson, «Testing the Fetal Origins Hypothesis in a Developing Country: Evidence from the 1918 Influenza Pandemic», Health Economics 19, no 10 (October 2010), pp. 1181–1192, https:; Ming-Jen Lin and Elaine M. Liu, «Does In Utero Exposure to Illness Matter? The 1918 Influenza Epidemic in Taiwan as a Natural Experiment», NBER Working Paper 20166 (May 2014), https://www.nber.org/papers/w20166.pdf; Sven Neelsen and Thomas Stratmann, «Long-Run Effects of Fetal Influenza Exposure: Evidence from Switzerland», Social Science & Medicine 74, no. 1 (2012), pp. 58–66, https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/socmed/v74y2012i1p5866.html.//onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/hec.1544
601
Marco Le Moglie et al., «Epidemics and Trust: The Case of the Spanish Flu», Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research Working Paper Series No. 661 (March 2020), pp. 1-32.
602
Crosby, America’s Forgotten Pandemic, pp. 86, 100–104.
603
Crosby, America’s Forgotten Pandemic, pp. 12–16.
604
Johnson, «Aspects of the Historical Geography», p. 76.
605
Schama, «Plague Time».
606
George Morton-Jack, Army of Empire: The Untold Story of the Indian Army in World War I (New York: Basic Books, 2018).
607
Robert Skidelsky, John Maynard Keynes: Hopes Betrayed, 1883–1920 (London: Penguin, 1986), p. 378.
608
John M. Barry, The Great Influenza: The Story of the Deadliest Pandemic in History (New York: Penguin, 2018), p. 386.
609
Crosby, America’s Forgotten Pandemic, p. 175.
610
VII Всероссийский Съезд Советов. 5–9 декабря 1919 г.
611
Emily Willingham, «Of Lice and Men: An Itchy History», Scientific American, February 14, 2011, https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/oflice-and-menanitchy-history/. [На русском языке: Владимир Ленин. Полное собрание сочинений. Т. 39. VII Всероссийский Съезд Советов. Доклад ВЦИК и Совнаркома 5 декабря. С. 410.]
612
Ian Kershaw, Hitler: 1889–1936: Hubris (New York: W. W. Norton, 1998), p. 152.
613
Входит в Федеральный список экстремистских материалов, распространение которых на территории РФ запрещено.
614
Adolf Hitler, Mein Kampf, trans. Ralph Manheim (Boston /New York: Mariner, 1999) p. 305.
615
Richard A. Koenigsberg, «Genocide as Immunology: Hitler as the Robert Koch of Germany», Library of Social Science, n.d., https://www.libraryofsocialscience.com/newsletter/posts/2018/20181211immunology.html.
616
Michael Burleigh and Wolfgang Wippermann, The Racial State: Germany 1933–1945 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1991).
617
Norman Dixon, On the Psychology of Military Incompetence (London: Pimlico, 1994).
618
Dixon, Psychology of Military Incompetence, pp. 19, 162ff., 306.
619
Dixon, Psychology of Military Incompetence, pp. 152–153.
620
Dixon, Psychology of Military Incompetence, p. 155.
621
R. Collins, «A Dynamic Theory of Battle Victory and Defeat», Cliodynamics 1, no. 1 (2010), pp. 3-25.
622
Лев Толстой. Собрание сочинений в восьми томах. М., 1996. Т. 3, ч. 1.
623
Лев Толстой. Указ. соч.
624
Проливать или не проливать кровь своих народов (фр.).
625
Там же.
626
Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace, trans. Louise and Aylmer Maude (London: Wordsworth, 1993), Book IX, chap. 1. [На русском языке: Лев Толстой. Война и мир. М., 1964. Т. 3. Ч. 1. С. 8.]
627
Christina Boswell, The Political Uses of Expert Knowledge: Immigration Policy and Social Research (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2009).
628
Henry Kissinger, White House Years (New York: Simon & Schuster), p. 43.
629
Christopher Guyver, The Second French Republic 1848–1852: A Political Reinterpretation (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2016), p. 196.
630
Amartya Sen, Poverty and Famines: An Essay on Entitlement and Deprivation (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1983).
631
Амартия Сен. Развитие как свобода / Пер. Е. Полецкой. М., 2004.
632
Amartya Sen, Development as Freedom (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1999), p. 16.
633
Amartya Sen, «How Is India Doing?» New York Review of Books, December 16, 1982, https://www.nybooks.com/articles/1982/12/16/howisindia-doing/.
634
Адам Смит. Исследование о природе и причинах богатства народов / Пер. В. Афанасьева. М., 2007.
635
Adam Smith, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, vol. II (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1976 [1776]), p. 102. [На русском языке: Адам Смит. Исследование о природе и причинах богатства народов / Пер. В. Афанасьева. М., Эксмо, 2007. С. 504.]
636
Marcel Lachiver, Les années de misère: La famine au temps du Grand Roi (Paris: Fayard, 1991).
637
Rajat Datta, Society, Economy and the Market: Commercialisation in Rural Bengal, c. 1760–1800 (New Delhi: Manohar, 2000), p. 264. See William Dalrymple, The Anarchy: The East India Company, Corporate Violence and the Pillage of an Empire (New York: Bloomsbury, 2019), pp. 259–304.
638
Tyler Goodspeed, Famine and Finance: Credit and the Great Famine of Ireland (Cham, Switzerland: Palgrave Macmillan, 2017).
639
«Introduction», The Great Irish Famine Online, Geography Department, University College Cork and Department of Culture, Heritage and the Gaeltacht, https://dahg.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=8de2b863f4454cbf93387dacb5cb8412.
640
K. Theodore Hoppen, «The Franchise and Electoral Politics in England and Ireland 1832–1885», History 70, no. 299 (June 1985), pp. 202–217.
641
Angus D. Macintyre, The Liberator: Daniel O’Connell and the Irish Party, 1830–1847 (London: Hamish Hamilton, 1965), p. 292.
642
Thomas Keneally, Three Famines: Starvation and Politics (New York: PublicAffairs, 2011), p. 64.
643
Niall Ferguson, The House of Rothschild, vol. I: Money’s Prophets: 1798–1848 (New York: Penguin, 1999), pp. 443, 449.
644
Christine Kinealy, «Peel, Rotten Potatoes and Providence: The Repeal of the Corn Laws and the Irish Famine», in Free Trade and its Reception, 1815–1960, ed. Andrew Marrison (London: Routledge, 2002).
645
The Times, September 22, 1846.
646
Вуда очень часто порочат и клеймят, однако он признавал «ужасное бедствие, поразившее Ирландию», и стремился объяснить, в чем состояла суть усилий правительства, которое посредством общественных работ пыталось «передать народу Ирландии средства для покупки той пищи, которую ирландцы прежде выращивали для себя сами, но которую, по причине неурожая картофеля, они более не могли производить и оказались вынужденными приобретать за деньги». То, что общественные работы оказались неэффективными, поскольку многие были слишком голодны, чтобы трудиться, убедило Вуда в необходимости распределять импортную еду. И потому его речь следовало бы процитировать более пространно, чем это делают обычно: «Мы не можем закрыть глаза на то, что сотни людей каждую неделю умирают в нищете. Могу уверить Палату, что с болью, которую я едва могу выразить словами, я читаю приходящие к нам день за днем отчеты о том, как люди умирают от голода на западе Ирландии. Никаких усилий правительства и, добавлю, никакой частной благотворительности не хватит, чтобы в полной мере справиться с нынешним бедствием. Это кара Божья, постигшая народ по воле Провидения; и мы должны, если и не в той мере, в какой это представляли некоторые достопочтенные джентльмены, то все же в весьма большой мере… откликнуться и помочь нашим страдающим братьям в Ирландии. Сэр, я не верю, что наша страна откажется предложить свою помощь или будет склонна воздержаться от нее перед лицом столь чрезвычайного бедствия». (Прим. авт.)
647
Debate on the Labouring Poor (Ireland) Bill, House of Commons, February 1, 1847, Hansard, vol. 89, cc61590, https://api.parliament.uk/historic-hansard/commons/1847/feb/01/labouring-poor-ireland-bill. See Tim Pat Coogan, The Famine Plot: England’s Role in Ireland’s Greatest Tragedy (New York: St. Martin’s Griffin, 2012), p. 229.
648
Roman Serbyn, «The First Man-Made Famine in Soviet Ukraine, 1921-23», Ukrainian Weekly 56, no. 45 (November 6, 1988), http://www.ukrweekly.com/old/archive/1988/458814.shtml.
649
Anne Applebaum, Red Famine: Stalin’s War on Ukraine (London: Penguin, 2018), pp. 67–69.
650
Applebaum, Red Famine, pp. 166f.
651
«Железный Лазарь» родился в еврейской семье в 1893 году. Каганович, безжалостный и кровожадный последователь Сталина, оказался самым долговечным из первых революционеров – «старой гвардии» большевиков. Он умер в 97 лет, 25 июля 1991 года, за месяц до того, как распалась Коммунистическая партия Советского Союза, в жертву которой он принес столь многих людей. (Прим. авт.)
652
Applebaum, Red Famine, pp. 229f.
653
Sergei Nefedov and Michael Ellman, «The Soviet Famine of 1931–1934: Genocide, a Result of Poor Harvests, or the Outcome of a Conflict Between the State and the Peasants?» Europe-Asia Studies 71, no. 6 (July 2019), pp. 1048–1065.
654
Иосиф Сталин. Cочинения. Тверь, 2006. Т. 18.
655
Michael Ellman, «The Role of Leadership Perceptions and of Intent in the Soviet Famine of 1931–1934», Europe-Asia Studies 57, no. 6 (September 2005), p. 824. [На русском языке: Иосиф Сталин. Cочинения. Тверь: Информационно-издательский центр «Союз», 2006. Т. 18. С. 49–50.]
656
Benjamin I. Cook, Ron L. Miller, and Richard Seager, «Amplification of the North American ‘Dust Bowl’ Drought Through Human-Induced Land Degradation», PNAS 106, no. 13 (March 31, 2009), pp. 4997–5001.
657
Ben Cook, Ron Miller, and Richard Seager, «Did Dust Storms Make the Dust Bowl Drought Worse?» Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University Earth Institute, http://ocp.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/drought/dust_storms.shtml.
658
Timothy Egan, The Worst Hard Time: The Untold Story of Those Who Survived the Great American Dustbowl (Boston and New York: Mariner/Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2006), p. 5.
659
Robert A. McLeman et al., «What We Learned from the Dust Bowl: Lessons in Science, Policy, and Adaption», Population and Environment 35 (2014), pp. 417–440. См. также: D. Worster, Dust Bowl: The Southern Plains in the 1930s (New York: Oxford University Press, 1979).
660
Cook, Miller, and Seager, «Amplification of the North American ‘Dust Bowl’ Drought», p. 4997.
661
Egan, Worst Hard Time, p. 8.
662
«Honoring 85 Years of NRCS – A Brief History», Natural Resources Conservation Service, USDA, https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/detail/national/about/history/?cid=nrcs143_021392.
663
Mike Davis, Late Victorian Holocausts: El Niño Famines and the Making of the Third World (London and New York: Verso, 2001).
664
Tirthankar Roy, The Economic History of India, 1857–1947 (Delhi: Oxford University Press, 2000), pp. 22, 219f., 254, 285, 294. Cf. Michelle Burge McAlpin, Subject to Famine: Food Crises and Economic Change in Western India, 1860–1920 (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1983).
665
Christopher Bayly and Tim Harper, Forgotten Armies: Britain’s Asian Empire and the War with Japan (London: Penguin, 2005).
666
Cormac Ó Gráda, «‘Sufficiency and Sufficiency and Sufficiency’: Revisiting the Great Bengal Famine, 1943-44», in Eating People Is Wrong, and Other Essays on Famine, Its Past, and Its Future (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2015), p. 90.
667
Arthur Herman, Gandhi and Churchill: The Rivalry That Destroyed an Empire and Forged Our Age (London: Hutchinson, 2008), p. 513.
668
Keneally, Three Famines, p. 93.
669
Herman, Gandhi and Churchill, p. 515.
670
Andrew Roberts, Churchill: Walking with Destiny (London: Allen Lane, 2018), p. 788.
671
Keneally, Three Famines, p. 95.
672
Bayly and Harper, Forgotten Armies, pp. 284–287.
673
Frank Dikötter, Mao’s Great Famine: The History of China’s Most Devastating Catastrophe, 1958–1962 (London: Bloomsbury, 2017), p. 333; Andrew G. Walder, China Under Mao: A Revolution Derailed (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press), p. 173.
674
Dali L. Yang, Calamity and Reform in China: State, Rural Society, and Institutional Change Since the Great Leap Famine (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1996).
675
Xin Meng, Nancy Qian, and Pierre Yared, «The Institutional Causes of China’s Great Famine, 1959-61», NBER Working Paper No. 16361 (September 2010).
676
Dikötter, Mao’s Great Famine, pp. 39f.
677
Dikötter, Mao’s Great Famine, pp. 113f., 133
678
Dikötter, Mao’s Great Famine, pp. 178ff., 276, 301f.
679
Cormac Ó Gráda, «Eating People Is Wrong: Famine’s Darkest Secret?» in Eating People Is Wrong, pp. 11–37.
680
Bengal statistics from Tim Dyson, Population History of India: From the First Modern People to the Present Day (Oxford: OxfordUniversity Press, 2018), and Stephen Devereux, «Famine in the Twentieth Century», IDS Working Paper 105 (2000). Ireland statistics from Joel Mokyr, Why Ireland Starved: A Quantitative and Analytical History of the Irish Economy, 1800–1850 (London: Allen & Unwin, 1983).
681
Theodore M. Vestal, «Famine in Ethiopia: Crisis of Many Dimensions», Africa Today 32, no. 4 (1984), pp. 7-28.
682
Mark R. Jury, «Climatic Determinants of March – May Rainfall Variability over Southeastern Ethiopia», Climate Research 66, no. 3 (December 2015), pp. 201–210.
683
С 1964 по 1970 год Менгисту трижды побывал с визитом в США и прошел курсы подготовки офицеров на Складе сухопутных войск в Саванне, Иллинойс; на Испытательном полигоне в Абердине, Мэриленд; и в Общевойсковом центре армии США, Форт-Ливенворт, Канзас. Как сообщает один отчет, он столкнулся с расовыми предрассудками, и это никоим образом не внушило ему любви к капитализму и демократии. (Прим. авт.)
684
Alex de Waal, Evil Days: Thirty Years of War and Famine in Ethiopia (New York and London: Human Rights Watch, 1991); Peter Gill, Fa mine and Foreigners: Ethiopia Since Live Aid (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2010).
685
Keneally, Three Famines, p. 125.
686
David Rieff, «The Humanitarian Aid Industry’s Most Absurd Apologist», New Republic, November 28, 2010, https://newrepublic.com/article/79491/humanitarian-aid-industrys-most-absurd-apologist-geldof.
687
Chandler Collier, «London Coal Fog of 1880», https://prezi.com/fbho-h7ba7f5/london-coal-fogof1880/.
688
The Hon. R. Russell, London Fogs (Gloucester: Dodo Press, 2009 [1880]), pp. 5–6, https://www.victo rianlondon.org/weather/londonfogs.htm.
689
Christopher Klein, «The Great Smog of 1952», History, December 5, 2012, updated August 22, 2018, https://www.history.com/news/the-killer-fog-that-blanketed-london60years-ago.
690
Camila Domonoske, «Research on Chinese Haze Helps Crack Mystery of London’s Deadly 1952 Fog», The Two-Way, NPR, November 23, 2016, https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/11/23/503156414/researchonchinese-haze-helps-crack-mysteryoflondons-deadly-1952-fog; Jane Onyanga-Omara, «Mystery of London Fog That Killed 12,000 Finally Solved», USA Today, December 13, 2016, https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2016/12/13/scientists-say-theyve-solved-mystery-1952-london-killer-fog/95375738/.
691
Peter Thorsheim, Inventing Pollution: Coal, Smoke, and Culture in Britain Since 1800 (Athens: Ohio University Press, 2017), p. 161.
692
H. Ross Anderson et al., «Health Effects of an Air Pollution Episode in London, December 1991», Thorax 50 (1995), pp. 1188–1193.
693
Winston S. Churchill, The World Crisis, 1911–1914 (New York: Charles Scribner’s Sons, 1923), p. 41.
694
Давид Ллойд Джордж. Военные мемуары. Томы I–II / Пер. И. Звавича. М., 1934. Т. 1, гл. 2.
695
David Lloyd George, War Memoirs, vol. I (London: Odhams Press, 1938), pp. 32, 34f. [На русском языке: Давид Ллойд Джордж. Военные мемуары / Пер. И. Звавича. М., Соцэкгиз, 1934. Т. 1. Гл. 2. С. 63, 65.]
696
Samuel Hynes, A War Imagined: The First World War and English Culture (London: Pimlico, 1990), p. 106.
697
Alan Clark, The Donkeys (London: Random House, 2011 [1961]); John Laffin, British Butchers and Bunglers of World War One (Stroud, UK: Sutton, 1992).
698
John Terraine, Douglas Haig: The Educated Soldier (London: Cassell, 1963).
699
Gary Sheffield, «An Exercise in Futility», History Today 66, no. 7 (2016), pp. 10–18. См. также: Gary Sheffield, The Somme (London: Cassell, 2003).
700
William Philpott, Bloody Victory: The Sacrifice on the Somme and the Making of the Twentieth Century (London: Abacus, 2016).
701
Gary Sheffield, The Chief: Douglas Haig and the British Army (London: Aurum Press, 2012) p. 166.
702
Robin Prior and Trevor Wilson, Command on the Western Front: The Military Career of Sir Henry Rawlinson, 1914-18 (Oxford: Basil Blackwell, 1992), p. 78.
703
David French, «The Meaning of Attrition», English Historical Review 103, no. 407 (1986), p. 403.
704
Trevor Wilson, The Myriad Faces of War: Britain and the Great War, 1914–1918 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1986), p. 309; Prior and Wilson, Command on the Western Front, pp. 150f.
705
Sheffield, «Exercise in Futility.»
706
Prior and Wilson, Command on the Western Front, pp. 153, 163–166.
707
Ernst Jünger, The Storm of Steel: From the Diary of a German Storm-Troop Officer on the Western Front, trans. Basil Creighton (London: Chatto & Windus, 1929), pp. 92ff., 106f.
708
John Terraine, The First World War (London: Secker and Warburg, 1984), p. 172.
709
French, «Meaning of Attrition», p. 386.
710
Niall Ferguson, The Pity of War: Understanding World War I (New York: Basic Books, 1998), pp. 332f.
711
R. H. Tawney, «Some Reflections of a Soldier», in The Attack and Other Papers (London: Allen & Unwin, 1953).
712
Nicholas Reeves, «Film Propaganda and Its Audience: The Example of Britain’s Official Films During the First World War», Journal of Contemporary History 18, no. 3 (1983), pp. 464–494.
713
Оригинал можно найти в трактате Публия Флавия Вегеция Рената De re militari («О военном деле»): «Igitur qui desiderat pacem, praeparet bellum» («И потому те, кто желает мира, готовятся к войне»). (Прим. авт.)
714
Brian Bond, British Military Policy Between the Two World Wars (Oxford: Clarendon, 1980), p. 24.
715
James Neidpath, The Singapore Naval Base and the Defence of Britain’s Eastern Empire, 1919–1941 (Oxford: Clarendon, 1981), p. 131.
716
Bond, British Military Policy, p. 217.
717
Подробное изложение: Niall Ferguson, The War of the World: Twentieth-Century Conflict and the Descent of the West (New York: Penguin Press, 2006), pp. 312–382.
718
Уинстон Черчилль. Мюнхенское соглашение // Мускулы мира, пер. В. Чухно. М., 2011.
719
Winston Churchill, «The Munich Agreement», address to the House of Commons, October 5, 1938, International Churchill Society, https://winstonchurchill.org/resources/speeches/1930-1938-the-wilderness/the-munich-agreement. [На русском языке: Уинстон Черчилль. Мускулы мира / Пер. В. Чухно. М., Эксмо, 2011. С. 68–92.]
720
Randolph Spencer Churchill and Martin Gilbert, Winston S. Churchill, vol. V: The Prophet of Truth, 1922–1939 (New York: Houghton Mifflin, 1966), p. 1002.
721
Roberts, Churchill, p. 438.
722
Уинстон Черчилль. Вторая мировая война. В 6 т. / Пер. с англ. под ред. А. Орлова. М., 1998. Т. 4.
723
Roberts, Churchill, p. 696. [На русском языке: Уинстон Черчилль. Вторая мировая война / Пер. под ред. А. Орлова. М., Терра-Книжный клуб, 1998. Т. 4. С. 28–29.]
724
Barnaby Crowcroft, «The End of the British Empire of Protectorates, 1945–1960» (PhD diss., Harvard University, 2019).
725
Field Marshal Lord Alanbrooke, Alanbrooke War Diaries 1939–1945 (London: Orion, 2015), February 11 and 18, 1942.
726
Саму табличку сделали заключенные федерального исправительного учреждения в Эль-Рино, Оклахома. А подарил ее Трумэну его друг Фред Кэнфил, в то время маршал Западного округа штата Миссури. На другой стороне таблички были слова: «Я из Миссури». (Прим. авт.)
727
«‘The Buck Stops Here’ Desk Sign», Harry S. Truman Library and Museum, https://www.trumanlibrary.gov/education/trivia/buck-stops-here-sign.
728
Adrian Goldsworthy, How Rome Fell: Death of a Superpower (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2009).
729
Peter Heather, The Fall of the Roman Empire: A New History (London: Pan, 2006).
730
Bryan Ward-Perkins, The Fall of Rome and the End of Civilization (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2005).
731
Dennis O. Flynn and Arturo Giraldez, «Arbitrage, China, and World Trade in the Early Modern Period», Journal of the Economic and Social History of the Orient 38, no. 4 (1995), pp. 429–448.
732
Patricia Buckley Ebrey, The Cambridge Illustrated History of China (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996), esp. p. 215.
733
См. хорошее изложение: Jack Goody, Capitalism and Modernity: The Great Debate (Cambridge: Polity Press, 2004), pp. 103–117.
734
Hanhui Guan and Li Daokui, «A Study of GDP and Its Structure in China’s Ming Dynasty», China Economic Quarterly 3 (2010).
735
См., напр.: L. Brandt, Debin Ma, and Thomas G. Rawski, «From Divergence to Convergence: Re-Evaluating the History Behind China’s Economic Boom», University of Warwick Working Paper Series No. 117 (February 2013).
736
Friedrich Percyval Reck-Malleczewen, Diary of a Man in Despair (Richmond, UK: Duckworth, 2000 [1947]), p. 31.
737
Stephen Kotkin, Armageddon Averted: The Soviet Collapse, 1970–2000 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008).
738
Leon Aron, «Everything You Think You Know About the Collapse of the Soviet Union Is Wrong», Foreign Policy, June 20, 2011, https://foreignpolicy.com/2011/06/20/everything-you-think-you-know-about-the-collapseofthe-soviet-unioniswrong/.
739
Андрей Амальрик. Просуществует ли Советский Союз до 1984 года? Амстердам, 1970.
740
Charles King, «How a Great Power Falls Apart», Foreign Affairs, June 30, 2020, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russia-fsu/20200630/how-great-power-falls-apart. [На русском языке: Андрей Амальрик. Просуществует ли Советский Союз до 1984 года? Амстердам, 1970. С. 62.]
741
См. в целом: Samir Puri, The Great Imperial Hangover: How Empires Have Shaped the World (London: Atlantic Books, 2020).
742
Eyck Freymann, One Belt One Road: Chinese Power Meets the World (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2021), pp. 42, 62, 100.
743
См. его выступление на неформальном саммите СНГ в Санкт-Петербурге, 20 декабря 2019 г., сайт президента РФ, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62376; и его статью «75 лет Великой Победы: общая ответственность перед историей и будущим», Москва, 19 июня 2020 г., сайт президента РФ, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/63527.
744
Manmohan Singh, speech on the acceptance of an honorary degree from Oxford University, July 8, 2005, https://archivepmo.nic.in/drmanmohansingh/speech-details.php?nodeid=140.
745
Michael Colborne and Maxim Edwards, «Erdogan Is Making the Ottoman Empire Great Again», Foreign Policy, June 22, 2018, https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/06/22/erdoganismaking-the-ottoman-empire-great-again/. См. также: Abdullah Bozkurt, «Erdoğan’s Secret Keeper Says Lausanne Treaty ‘Expired,’ Turkey Free to Grab Resources», Nordic Monitor, February 24, 2020, https://www.nordicmonitor.com/2020/02/erdogans-secret-keeper-says-lausanne-treaty-invalid-turkey-freetograb-resources/; Sinan Baykent, «Misakı Millî or the ‘National Oath’: Turkey’s New Foreign Policy Compass?» Hurriyet Daily News, October 31, 2016, https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/misakimillorthe-national-oath-turkeys-new-foreign-policy-compass-105529.
746
Michael Morell, «Iran’s Grand Strategy Is to Become a Regional Powerhouse», Washington Post, April 3, 2015, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/irans-grand-strategy/2015/04/03/415ec8a8-d8a3-11e4-ba28-f2a685dc7f89_story.html.
747
Джек Керуак. В дороге / Пер. В. Когана. СПб., 2015.
748
Pasquale Cirillo and Nassim Nicholas Taleb, «Tail Risk of Contagious Diseases», Nature Physics 16 (2020), pp. 606–613.
749
Сингл был продан тиражом более одного миллиона копий, стал «золотым» и занял 52-е место в чарте Billboard. (Прим. авт.)
750
Niall P. A. S. Johnson and Juergen Mueller, «Updating the Accounts: Global Mortality of the 1918–1920 ‘Spanish’ Influenza Pandemic», Bulletin of the History of Medicine 76 (2002), pp. 105–115.
751
«Eisenhower Seeks Fund to Fight Flu», New York Times, August 8, 1957, https://timesmachine.nytimes.com/timesmachine/1957/08/08/90831582.html.
752
Presidential Approval Ratings – Gallup Historical Statistics and Trends, Gallup, https://news.gallup.com/poll/116677/presidential-approval-ratings-gallup-historical-statistics-trends.aspx.
753
Фраза принадлежит «Альфреду Э. Нойману», персонажу, которого в 1956 году придумал Аль Фельдштейн, второй редактор журнала Mad, а нарисовал Норман Минго. С тех пор обложку журнала неизменно украшал лохматый паренек без переднего зуба с уже привычной коронной фразой: «What, me worry?» (Прим. авт.)
754
О теории, согласно которой эпидемию 1889 года вызвал коронавирус, см.: Nicholas A. Christakis, Apollo’s Arrow: The Profound and Enduring Impact of Coronavirus on the Way We Live (New York: Little, Brown Spark, 2020), pp. 309f.
755
D. A. Henderson, Brooke Courtney, Thomas V. Inglesby, Eric Toner, and Jennifer B. Nuzzo, «Public Health and Medical Responses to the 1957-58 Influenza Pandemic», Biosecurity and Bioterrorism: Biodefense Strategy, Practice, and Science (September 2009), pp. 265–273.
756
Cécile Viboud et al., «Global Mortality Impact of the 1957–1959 Influenza Pandemic», Journal of Infectious Diseases 213 (2016), pp. 738–745.
757
Viboud et al., «Global Mortality Impact», p. 744.
758
«1957–1958 Pandemic (H2N2 Virus)», Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (henceforth CDC), https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1957-1958-pandemic.html.
759
Christakis, Apollo’s Arrow, pp. 62f. Robert J. Barro, José F. Ursúa, and Joanna Weng, «The Coronavirus and the Great Influenza Pandemic: Lessons from the ‘Spanish Flu’ for the Coronavirus’s Potential Effects on Mortality and Economic Activity», NBER Working Paper No. 26866 (2020).
760
Elizabeth Brainard and Mark V. Siegler, «The Economic Effects of the 1918 Influenza Epidemic», Centre for Economic Policy Research Discussion Paper No. 3791 (February 2003).
761
Patrick G. T. Walker et al., «The Global Impact of COVID-19 and Strategies for Mitigation and Suppression», Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team Report 12 (March 26, 2020), https://doi.org/10.25561/77735.
762
Новый обзор, в котором вероятный коэффициент летальности при заражении оценивается чуть более оптимистично, чем в моей книге: John P. A. Ioannidis, «The Infection Fatality Rate of COVID-19 Inferred from Seroprevalence Data», May 19, 2020, MedRxiv, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.13.20101253.
763
Elizabeth W. Etheridge, Sentinel for Health: A History of the Centers for Disease Control (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1992), p. 85.
764
Robert E. Serfling, Ida L. Sherman, and William J. Houseworth, «Excess Pneumonia-Influenza Mortality by Age and Sex in Three Major Influenza A2 Epidemics, United States, 1957-58, 1960 and 1963», American Journal of Epidemiology 88, no. 8 (1967), pp. 433–442.
765
Eskild Petersen et al., «Comparing SARS-CoV2 with SARS-CoV and Influenza Pandemics», Lancet Infectious Diseases 20, no. 9 (September 2020), table 3, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473–3099 (20) 304849.
766
«Influenza 1957», American Journal of Public Health and the Nation’s Health 47, no. 9 (September 1957), pp. 1141f.
767
Lina Zeldovich, «How America Brought the 1957 Influenza Pandemic to a Halt», JSTOR Daily, April 7, 2020, https://daily.jstor.org/how-america-brought-the-1957-influenza-pandemictoahalt/.
768
Henderson et al., «Public Health and Medical Responses», p. 266.
769
Henderson et al., «Public Health and Medical Responses», p. 271.
770
Henderson et al., «Public Health and Medical Responses».
771
Edwin D. Kilbourne, «Influenza Pandemics of the 20th Century», Emerging Infectious Diseases 12, no. 1 (January 2006), p. 10.
772
Albert-László Barabási, Network Science (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2016), esp. chap. 10.
773
Etheridge, Sentinel for Health, p. 85.
774
Etheridge, Sentinel for Health, p. 269.
775
Jere Housworth and Alexander D. Langmuir, «Excess Mortality from Epidemic Influenza, 1957–1966», American Journal of Epidemiology 100, no. 1 (1974), pp. 40–49.
776
Cécile Viboud et al., «Multinational Impact of the 1968 Hong Kong Influenza Pandemic: Evidence for a Smoldering Pandemic», Journal of Infectious Diseases 192 (2005), pp. 233–248; Petersen et al., «Comparing SARS-CoV2 with SARS-CoV and Influenza», table 3.
777
Jack M. Holl, «Young Eisenhower’s Fight with the 1918 Flu at Camp Colt», Brewminate, May 5, 2020, https://brewminate.com/young-eisenhowers-fight-with-the-1918-fluatcamp-colt/.
778
Henderson et al., «Public Health and Medical Responses», p. 266.
779
Henderson et al., «Public Health and Medical Responses», p. 270.
780
Fred M. Davenport, «Role of the Commission on Influenza», Studies of Epidemiology and Prevention 73, no. 2 (February 1958), pp. 133–139.
781
Henderson et al., «Public Health and Medical Responses», p. 270.
782
«Hong Kong Battling Influenza Epidemic», New York Times, April 16, 1957.
783
Henderson et al., «Public Health and Medical Responses», p. 270.
784
Zeldovich, «1957 Influenza Pandemic».
785
Etheridge, Sentinel for Health, p. 84.
786
Henderson et al., «Public Health and Medical Responses», p. 270.
787
Kilbourne, «Influenza Pandemics», p. 10.
788
Paul A. Offit, Vaccinated: One Man’s Quest to Defeat the World’s Deadliest Diseases (Washington, DC: Smithsonian, 2007), pp. 128–131.
789
Milton Friedman and Anna Jacobson Schwartz, A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960 (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2008), p. 615.
790
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, «The 1957–1958 Recession: Recent or Current?» FRBSL Monthly Review 40, no. 8 (August 1958), pp. 94-103.
791
Henderson et al., «Public Health and Medical Responses», pp. 269f.
792
U. S. Congressional Budget Office, «A Potential Influenza Pandemic: Possible Macroeconomic Effects and Policy Issues», December 8, 2005 (revised July 27, 2006), http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/69xx/doc6946/1208BirdFlu.pdf.
793
«Democrats Widen Congress Margin», New York Times, November 5, 1958.
794
Панамериканская организация здравоохранения была создана в 1902 году под названием Панамериканское санитарное бюро. В 1947 году она была переименована в Панамериканскую санитарную организацию. Свое нынешнее название она получила в 1958 году.
795
Heidi J. S. Tworek, «Communicable Disease: Information, Health, and Globalization in the Interwar Period», American Historical Review, June 2019, pp. 823, 836.
796
Tworek, «Communicable Disease», p. 838.
797
Tworek, «Communicable Disease», p. 841.
798
Frank Furedi, «Why the WHO Should Be Scrapped», Spiked, April 27, 2020, https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/04/27/why-the-who-shouldbescrapped/.
799
Franklin D. Roosevelt, address in Chicago, October 5, 1937, https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/address-chicago.
800
Elizabeth Borgwardt, A New Deal for the World: America ’sVisionforHumanRights(Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2005).
801
Julia Emily Johnsen, Plans for a Post-War World (New York: H. W. Wilson, 1942), p. 115.
802
Odd Arne Westad, The Global Cold War: Third World Interventions and the Making of Our Times (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2005).
803
Sargent, «Strategy and Biosecurity».
804
Calculated from data at The Nobel Prize, http://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/.
805
S. Jayachandran, Adriana Lleras-Muney, and Kimberly V. Smith, «Modern Medicine and the 20th Century Decline in Mortality: New Evidence on the Impact of Sulfa Drugs», Online Working Paper Series, California Center for Population Research, UCLA (2008), pp. 1-48.
806
Thomas McKeown, R. G. Record, and R. D. Turner, «An Interpretation of the Decline of Mortality in England and Wales During the Twentieth Century», Journal of Population Studies 29, no. 3 (1975), pp. 391–422.
807
Christakis, Apollo’s Arrow, p. 111.
808
David Cutler and Ellen Meara, «Changes in the Age Distribution of Mortality Over the 20th Century», NBER Working Paper No. 8556 (October 2001).
809
Hampton, «End of Medical History», pp. 367–371.
810
К несчастью для Слемрода, ничего подобного не произошло. Даже когда рухнул Советский Союз и ученые-атомщики перевели стрелки Часов Судного дня назад, на семнадцать минут до полуночи, норма частных сбережений продолжала неуклонно снижаться: с 9,4 % от располагаемого дохода в 1983 году, когда мир стоял на пороге катастрофы, до 2,5 % в 2005 году. (Прим. авт.)
811
Joel Slemrod, «Post-War Capital Accumulation and the Threat of Nuclear War», NBER Working Paper No. 887 (1982); Joel Slemrod, «Fear of Nuclear War and Intercountry Differences in the Rate of Saving», NBER Working Paper No. 2801 (1988); Bruce Russett and Joel Slemrod, «Diminished Expectations of Nuclear War and Increased Personal Savings: Evidence from Individual Survey Data» NBER Working Paper No. 4031 (1992).
812
John Farley, Brock Chisholm, the World Health Organization and the Cold War (Vancouver and Toronto: UBC Press, 2008), p. 56.
813
Meredith Reid Sarkees, «The Correlates of War Data on War: An Update to 1997», Conflict Management and Peace Science 18, no. 1 (2000), pp. 123–144.
814
Max Roser, «War and Peace After 1945», Our World in Data (2015), http://ourworldindata.org/data/war-peace/war-and-peace-after-1945/.
815
Center for Systemic Peace, «Assessing the Qualities of Systemic Peace», https://www.systemicpeace.org/conflicttrends.html.
816
Peter J. Hotez, «Vaccines as Instruments of Foreign Policy», European Molecular Biology Organization Reports 2, no. 10 (2001), pp. 862–868.
817
David M. Oshinsky, Polio: An American Story (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2005), pp. 252f.
818
Erez Manela, «Smallpox Eradication and the Rise of Global Governance», in The Shock of the Global: The 1970s in Perspective, ed. Niall Ferguson et al. (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2010), pp. 256–257.
819
Jared Diamond, «Lessons from a Pandemic», Financial Times, May 25, 2020, https:.//www.ft.com/content/71ed9f88-9f5b-11ea-b65d-489c67b0d85d
820
«Biological Weapons in the Former Soviet Union: An Interview with Dr. Kenneth Alibek», Nonproliferation Review, Spring/Summer 1999, pp. 1-10.
821
Clark Whelton, «Say Your Prayers and Take Your Chances: Remembering the 1957 Asian Flu Pandemic», City Journal, March 13, 2020, https://www.city-journal.org/1957-asian-flu-pandemic.
822
Henderson et al., «Public Health and Medical Responses», pp. 270, 272.
823
Justin McCarthy, «Americans Differ Greatly in Readiness to Return to Normal», Gallup, April 30, 2020, https://news.gallup.com/poll/309578/americans-differ-greatly-readiness-return-normal.aspx.
824
R. J. Reinhart, «Roundup of Gallup COVID-19 Coverage», October 19, 2020, https://news.gallup.com/opinion/gallup/308126/roundup-gallup-covid-coverage.aspx.
825
Michele Gelfand et al., «Cultural and Institutional Factors Predicting the Infection Rate and Mortality Likelihood of the COVID-19 Pandemic», PsyArXiv, April 1, 2020, https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/m7f8a.
826
Charles Murray, Coming Apart: The State of White America, 1960–2010 (New York: Crown Forum, 2012).
827
U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, «All Employees, Federal [CES9091000001]», retrieved from FRED: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES9091000001.
828
U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, «All Employees, Government [USGOVT]», retrieved from FRED: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USGOVT.
829
U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, «All Employees, Government».
830
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and U. S. Office of Management and Budget, «Gross Federal Debt as Percent of Gross Domestic Product [GFDGDPA188S]», retrieved from FRED: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDGDPA188S.
831
«Budget Projections: Debt Will Exceed the Size of the Economy This Year», Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, April 13, 2020, http://www.crfb.org/blogs/budget-projections-debt-will-exceed-size-economy-year.
832
Oshinsky, Polio: An American Story, pp. 8.
833
Oshinsky, Polio: An American Story, p. 53.
834
Oshinsky, Polio: An American Story, p. 162.
835
Oshinsky, Polio: An American Story, p. 204.
836
Oshinsky, Polio: An American Story, p. 218.
837
Oshinsky, Polio: An American Story, p. 219.
838
Oshinsky, Polio: An American Story, p. 268.
839
Richard Krause, «The Swine Flu Episode and the Fog of Epidemics», Emerging Infectious Diseases 12, no. 1 (January 2006), pp. 40–43, https://doi.org/10.3201/eid1201.051132.
840
Homeland Security Council, National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza (November 2005), https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/pdf/pandemic-influenza-strategy-2005.pdf.
841
David C. Morrison, «Pandemics and National Security», Great Decisions (2006), pp. 93-102, https://www.jstor.org/stable/43682459.
842
James Fallows, «The 3 Weeks That Changed Everything», Atlantic, June 29, 2020, https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/06/how-white-house-coronavirus-response-went-wrong/613591/.
843
Anna Mummert et al., «A Perspective on Multiple Waves of Influenza Pandemics», PLOS One, April 23, 2013, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0060343.
844
Petersen et al., «Comparing SARS-CoV2 with SARS-CoV and Influenza.» См. также: «2009 H1N1 Pandemic (H1N1pdm09 Virus)», CDC, https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html.
845
Executive Office of the President of the United States, «Playbook for Early Response to High-Consequence Emerging Infectious Disease Threats and Biological Incidents», n.d., https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/6819268/Pandemic-Playbook.pdf.
846
A. Moya et al., «The Population Genetics and Evolutionary Epidemiology of RNA Viruses», Nature Reviews 2 (2004), pp. 279–288.
847
Randy Shilts, And the Band Played On: Politics, People and the AIDS Epidemic (London: Souvenir Press, 2011)
848
Shilts, And the Band Played On, pp. 68f.
849
Shilts, And the Band Played On, pp. 73f.
850
Shilts, And the Band Played On, p. 165.
851
Shilts, And the Band Played On, p. 229.
852
Shilts, And the Band Played On, pp. 242f.
853
«How HIV/AIDS Changed the World», Economist, June 25, 2020, https://www.economist.com/books-and-arts/2020/06/25/how-hiv/aids-changed-the-world.
854
Natasha Geiling, «The Confusing and At-Times Counterproductive 1980s Response to the AIDS Epidemic», Smithsonian, December 4, 2013, https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/the-confusing-andattimes-counterproductive-1980s-responsetothe-aids-epidemic-180948611/.
855
Shilts, And the Band Played On, p. 129.
856
Shilts, And the Band Played On, 319f., 450ff.
857
Shilts, And the Band Played On, p. 593.
858
Laurie Garrett, «Ebola’s Lessons: How the WHO Mishandled the Crisis», Foreign Affairs 94, no. 5 (September/October 2015), pp. 84f.
859
Peter Piot, No Time to Lose: A Life in Pursuit of Deadly Viruses (New York and London: W. W. Norton, 2012), pp. 183f.
860
Piot, No Time to Lose, pp. 100, 191
861
Piot, No Time to Lose, pp. 108f., 167.
862
См., напр.: Romualdo Pastor-Satorras and Alessandro Vespignani, «Immunization of Complex Networks», Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, February 1, 2008.
863
David M. Auerbach et al., «Cluster of Cases of the Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome. Patients Linked by Sexual Contact», American Journal of Medicine 76, no. 3 (1984), pp. 487–492, https://doi.org/10.1016/0002-9343 (84) 906685. Позже Дюга ошибочно называли «нулевым пациентом», первым человеком в США, заболевшим СПИДом. На самом деле авторы статьи 1984 г. изначально дали ему обозначение «Пациент O», то есть «Out-of-California» («Вне Калифорнии»).
864
Filio Marineli et al., «Mary Mallon (1869–1938) and the History of Typhoid Fever», Annals of Gastroenterology 26, no. 2 (2013), pp. 132–134, https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3959940/.
865
«Trends in Sexual Behavior and the HlV Pandemic», American Journal of Public Health 82, no. 11 (1992), p. 1459.
866
См.: Jonathan Engel, The Epidemic: A Global History of AIDS (Washington, DC: Smithsonian Books, 2006).
867
«How HIV/AIDS Changed the World», Economist.
868
Calder Walton, «Intelligence and Coronavirus: Rethinking US National Security: An Applied History Analysis», unpublished paper, Harvard University (May 2020).
869
UNAIDS, How AIDS Changed Everything: MDG 6: 15 Years, 15 Lessons of Hope from the AIDS Response (New York: United Nations, 2016), https://www.unaids.org/en/resources/documents/2015/MDG6_15years-15lessonsfromtheAIDSresponse.
870
Marshall H. Becker and Jill G. Joseph, «AIDS and Behavioral Change to Reduce Risk: A Review», American Journal of Public Health 78, no. 4 (1988), pp. 394–410.
871
Joel A. Feinleib and Robert T. Michael, «Reported Changes in Sexual Behavior in Response to AIDS in the United States», Preventive Medicine 27, no. 3 (May 1998), pp. 400–411, https://doi.org/10.1006/pmed.1998.0270.
872
Muazzam Nasrullah et al., «Factors Associated with Condom Use Among Sexually Active U. S. Adults, National Survey of Family Growth, 2006–2010 and 2011–2013», Journal of Sexual Medicine 14, no. 4 (April 2017), pp. 541–550, https://doi.org10.1016/j.jsxm.2017.02.015. См. также: Wenjia Zhu, Samuel A. Bazzi, and Angel R. Bazzi, «Behavioral Changes Following HIV Seroconversion During the Historical Expansion of HIV Treatment in the United States», AIDS 33, no. 1 (January 2, 2019), pp. 113–121, https://journals.lww.com/aidsonline/fulltext/2019/01020/behavioral_changes_following_hiv_seroconversion.12.aspx.
873
Gus Cairns, «Behaviour Change Interventions in HIV Prevention: Is There Still a Place for Them?» NAM AIDS Map, April 12, 2017, https://www.aidsmap.com/news/apr-2017/behaviour-change-interventions-hiv-prevention-there-still-place-them.
874
UNAIDS, How AIDS Changed Everything, p. 33.
875
Tony Barnett and Justin Parkhurst, «HIV/AIDS: Sex, Abstinence, and Behaviour Change», Lancet, September 2005, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473–3099 (05) 70219X; Emily Oster, «HIV and Sexual Behavior Change: Why Not Africa?» Journal of Health Economics 31, no. 1 (January 2012), pp. 35–49, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S016762961100172X.
876
Brooke E. Wells and Jean M. Twenge, «Changes in Young People’s Sexual Behavior and Attitudes, 1943–1999: A Cross-Temporal Meta-Analysis», Review of General Psychology 9, no. 3 (September 2005), pp. 249–261.
877
Nicholas H. Wolfinger, «Nine Decades of Promiscuity», Institute for Family Studies, February 6, 2018, https://ifstudies.org/blog/nine-decadesofpromiscuity.
878
Steven Reinberg, «Only About One-Third of Americans Use Condoms: CDC», WebMD, August 10, 2017, https://www.webmd.com/sex/news/20170810/only-about-one-thirdofamericans-use-condoms-cdc#1; Rachael Rettner, «US Men’s Condom Use Is on the Rise», LiveScience, August 10, 2017, https://www.livescience.com/60095-condom-use-men.html.
879
Peter Ueda, Catherine H. Mercer, and Cyrus Ghaznavi, «Trends in Frequency of Sexual Activity and Number of Sexual Partners Among Adults Aged 18 to 44 Years in the US, 2000–2018», JAMA Network Open 3, no. 6 (2020), https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.3833.
880
National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles, Natsal, http://www.natsal.ac.uk/home.aspx.
881
Отсылка к одноименному британскому фарсу 1971 года и его киноверсии 1973 года.
882
Kaye Wellings et al., «Changes in, and Factors Associated with,
Frequency of Sex in Britain: Evidence from three National Surveys of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (Natsal)», BMJ 365, no. l1525 (2019), pp. 1–9, https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.l1525.
883
Ueda, Mercer, and Ghaznavi, «Trends in Frequency of Sexual Activity», eTable 6.
884
CDC, «HIV in the United States and Dependent Areas», https://www.cdc.gov/hiv/statistics/overview/ataglance.html.
885
CDC, «2018 STD Surveillance Report», https://www.cdc.gov/nchhstp/newsroom/2019/2018-STD-surveillance-report.html.
886
James Gorman, «Are Face Masks the New Condoms?» New York Times, April 18, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/18/health/coronavirus-mask-condom.html.
887
Учитывая, что по правилам пари в число «жертв» входили люди, «нуждающиеся в госпитализации», Рис выиграл задолго до сентября 2020 года, когда общее число погибших превысило миллион. К сожалению для него, ставка составляла скромные 400 долларов. (Прим. авт.)
888
For Rees’s «Long Now» interview on the subject in 2010, see FORA.tv, «Biotech Disaster by 2020? Martin Rees Weighs the Risks», September 14, 2010, YouTube video, 3:50, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqOBNft2OM.
889
Подробности пари: Bet 9, Long Bets Project, http://longbets.org/9/.
890
Steven Pinker, Enlightenment Now: The Case for Reason, Science, Humanism, and Progress (New York: Viking, 2018), pp. 142, 301, 307.
891
Laurie Garrett, «The Next Pandemic», Foreign Affairs, July/August 2005, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/20050701/next-pandemic.
892
Dan Balz, «America Was Unprepared for a Major Crisis. Again», Washington Post, April 4, 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/politics/america-was-unprepared-foramajor-crisis-again/.
893
Michael Osterholm, «Preparing for the Next Pandemic», Foreign Affairs, July/August 2005, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/20050701/preparing-next-pandemic.
894
Larry Brilliant, «My Wish: Help Me Stop Pandemics», February 2006, TED video, 25:38, https://www.ted.com/talks/larry_brilliant_my_wish_help_me_stop_pandemics.
895
Ian Goldin and Mike Mariathasan, The Butterfly Defect: How Globalization Creates Systemic Risks and What to Do About It (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2014), chap. 6.
896
Bill Gates, «The Next Outbreak: We’re Not Ready», March 2015, TED video, 8:25, https://www.ted.com/talks/bill_gates_the_next_outbreak_we_re_not_ready.
897
Robert G. Webster, Flu Hunter: Unlocking the Secrets of a Virus (Otago, New Zealand: University of Otago Press, 2018).
898
Ed Yong, «The Next Plague Is Coming. Is America Ready?» Atlantic, July/August 2018, https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2018/07/when-the-next-plague-hits/561734/.
899
Thoughty2, «This Is the New Killer Virus That Will End Humanity», November 15, 2019, YouTube video, 15:35, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Jhz0pVSKtI &app=desktop.
900
Lawrence Wright, The End of October (New York: Random House, 2020). Эта книга предположительно была завершена в 2019 г.
901
Peter Frankopan, «We Live in the Age of the Pandemic. This Is What We Need to Do About It», Prospect, December 8, 2019, https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/pandemic-likelihood-preparednessukwho-global.
902
A. S. Fauci, «Infectious Diseases: Considerations for the 21st Century», IDSA lecture, Clinical Infectious Diseases 32 (2001), pp. 675–678. О трудностях с противотуберкулезными вакцинами см.: Morven E. M. Wilkie and Helen McShane, «TB Vaccine Development: Where Are We and Why Is It So Difficult?» Thorax 70 (2015), pp. 299–301, https://doi.org/10.1136/thoraxjnl-2014-205202.
903
David M. Morens et al., «The Challenge of Emerging and Re-Emerging Infectious Diseases», Nature 430 (July 8, 2004), pp. 242–249; Robin A. Weiss, «The Leeuwenhoek Lecture, 2001: Animal Origins of Human Infectious Diseases», Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society Biological Sciences 356 (2001), pp. 957-77. См. также: Dorothy H. Crawford, Deadly Companions: How Microbes Shaped Our History (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2007), pp. 214f.
904
K. E. Jones et al., «Global Trends in Emerging Infectious Diseases», Nature 451 (February 2008), pp. 990–994.
905
Vittoria Colizza et al., «The Role of the Airline Transportation Network in the Prediction and Predictability of Global Epidemics», PNAS 103, no. 7 (2006), pp. 2015–2020. См. также: Globalization 101, «Health and Globalization», SUNY Levin Institute, http://www.globalization101.org.
906
Stephen S. Morse, «Emerging Viruses: Defining the Rules for Viral Traffic», Perspectives in Biology and Medicine 34, no. 3 (1991), pp. 387–409; Joshua Lederberg, «Infectious Diseases as an Evolutionary Paradigm», Emerging Infectious Diseases 3, no. 4 (December 1997), pp. 417–423. См. также: Mark Honigsbaum, The Pandemic Century: A History of Global Contagion from the Spanish Flu to Covid-19 (London: Penguin, 2020), pp. 165f.
907
D. Campbell-Lendrum, «Global Climate Change: Implications for International Public Health Policy», Bulletin of the World Health Organization 85, no. 3 (2007), pp. 235–237. См. также: World Health Organization, Climate Change and Human Health: Risks and Responses, Summary (Geneva: WHO, 2003).
908
Kristian G. Andersen et al., «The Proximal Origin of SARS-CoV2», Nature Medicine 26 (2020), pp. 450–452, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-08209.
909
Petersen et al., «Comparing SARS-CoV2 with SARS-CoV and Influenza».
910
Barabási, Network Science, chap. 10.
911
J. O. Lloyd-Smith et al., «Superspreading and the Effect of Individual Variation on Disease Emergence», Nature 438 (2005), pp. 355–359, https://www.nature.com/articles/nature04153.
912
См. в целом: Thomas Abraham, Twenty-First Century Plague: The Story of SARS (Baltimore: John Hopkins University Press, 2007).
913
Тяжелый острый респираторный синдром (англ.).
914
Abraham, Twenty-First Century Plague, p. 87.
915
Abraham, Twenty-First Century Plague, pp. 101–104.
916
Richard D. Smith, «Responding to Global Infectious Disease Outbreaks: Lessons from SARS on the Role of Risk Perception, Communication and Management», Social Science and Medicine 63 (2006), pp. 3113–3123.
917
V. Rossi and John Walker, «Assessing the Economic Impact and Costs of Flu Pandemics Originating in Asia», Oxford Economic Forecasting Group (2005), pp. 1-23.
918
«COVID-19 Science Update for March 27th: Super-Spreaders and the Need for New Prediction Models», Quillette, March 27, 2020, https://quillette.com/2020/03/27/covid19science-update-for-march27super-spreaders-and-the-need-for-new-prediction-models/.
919
Petersen et al., «Comparing SARS-CoV2 with SARS-CoV and Influenza», table 1.
920
David Quammen, Ebola: The Natural and Human History (London: Bodley Head, 2014), loc. 702-15, Kindle; Richard Preston, The Hot Zone (New York: Random House, 1994), p. 68.
921
Laurie Garrett, «Ebola’s Lessons: How the WHO Mishandled the Crisis», Foreign Affairs 94, no. 5 (September/October 2015), pp. 80-107.
922
Honigsbaum, Pandemic Century, pp. 202f.
923
Garrett, «Ebola’s Lessons», pp. 94f.
924
Garrett, «Ebola’s Lessons», p. 97.
925
Zeynep Tufekci, «Ebola: The Real Reason Everyone Should Panic», Medium, October 23, 2014, https://medium.com/message/ebola-the-real-reason-everyone-should-panic-889f32740e3e.
926
John Poole, «‘Shadow’ and ‘D12’ Sing an Infectious Song About Ebola», Morning Edition, NPR, August 19, 2014, https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2014/08/19/341412011/shadow-andd12singaninfectious-song-about-ebola.
927
Airline Accident Fatalities Per Year, 1946–2017, Aviation Safety Network, https://aviation-safety.net/graphics/infographics/Airliner-Accident-Fatalities-Per-Year-1946–2017.jpg.
928
Airliner Accidents Per 1 Million Flights, 1977–2017, Aviation Safety Network, https://aviation-safety.net/graphics/infographics/Fatal-Accidents-Per-Mln-Flights-1977–2017.jpg.
929
Sebastian Junger, The Perfect Storm (New York: W. W. Norton, 1997).
930
«Meteorologists Say ‘Perfect Storm’ Not So Perfect», Science Daily, June 29, 2000, https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2000/06/000628101549.htm
931
James Reason, Human Error (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990), p. 175.
932
Jens Rasmussen, «The Definition of Human Error and a Taxonomy for Technical Systems Design», in New Technology and Human Error, ed. J. Rasmussen, K. Duncan, and J. Leplat (London: Wiley, 1987), pp. 23–30.
933
James B. Battles, «Disaster Prevention: Lessons Learned from the Titanic», Baylor University Medical Center Proceedings 14, no. 2 (April 2001), pp. 150–153.
934
Roy Mengot, «Titanic and the Iceberg», Titanic Research and Modeling Association, https://web.archive.org/web/20130920234448/http://titanic-model.com/db/db02/rmdb2.html.
935
«Did Anyone Really Think the Titanic Was Unsinkable?» Britannica, https://www.britannica.com/story/did-anyone-really-think-the-titanic-was-unsinkable.
936
History.com, «The Titanic: Sinking & Facts», November 9, 2009, updated March 10, 2020, https://www.history.com/topics/early-20th-centuryus/titanic.
937
Battles, «Disaster Prevention», p. 151.
938
Andrew Wilson, Shadow of the Titanic: The Extraordinary Stories of Those Who Survived (New York; Atria, 2012), p. 7. См. также: Frances Wilson, How to Survive the Titanic, or The Sinking of J. Bruce Ismay (London: Bloomsbury, 2012).
939
Atlanticus, «The Unlearned Lesson of the Titanic», Atlantic (August 1913), https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1913/08/the-unlearned-lessonofthe-titanic/308866/.
940
Mikael Elinder and Oscar Erixson, «Every Man for Himself! Gender, Norms and Survival in Maritime Disasters», IFN Working Paper No. 913 (April 2, 2012) Research Institute of Industrial Economics (Stockholm).
941
Bob Vosseller, «Remembering the Hindenburg Is Important for All», Jersey Shore Online, May 6, 2017, https://www.jerseyshoreonline.com/ocean-county/remembering-hindenburg-passion-important/.
942
National Geographic Channel, Seconds from Disaster: The Hindenburg (2005), dir. By Yavar Abbas, YouTube video, 1:06:29, https://www.youtube.com/watch?V=mCQ0uk3AWQ8 &t=2811s.
943
Joanna Walters, «The Hindenburg Disaster, 80 Years On: A ‘Perfect Storm of Circumstances,’» Guardian, May 7, 2017, https://www.theguardian.com/usnews/2017/may/07/hindenburg-disaster-80th-anniversary.
944
Karl E. Weick, «The Vulnerable System: An Analysis of the Tenerife Air Disaster», Journal of Management 16, no. 3 (1990), p. 573.
945
Diane Tedeschi, «Crash in the Canary Islands», Air & Space Magazine, June 2019, https://www.airspacemag.com/historyofflight/reviews-crashincanary-islands-180972227/.
946
John David Ebert, «The Plane Crash at Tenerife: What It Unconceals», in The Age of Catastrophe: Disaster and Humanity in Modern Times (Jefferson, NC, and London: McFarland & Co., 2012), loc. 60, 598–612, Kindle.
947
Weick, «Vulnerable System», p. 573.
948
Tedeschi, «Crash in the Canary Islands».
949
Weick, «Vulnerable System», p. 587.
950
Terence Hunt, «NASA Suggested Reagan Hail Challenger Mission in State of Union», Associated Press, March 12, 1986, https://apnews.com/00a395472559b3afcd22de473da2e65f.
951
Margaret Lazarus Dean, «The Oral History of the Space Shuttle Challenger Disaster», Popular Mechanics, January 28, 2019, https://www.popularmechanics.com/space/a18616/anoral-historyofthe-space-shuttle-challenger-disaster/.
952
John Schwartz and Matthew L. Ward, «NASA’s Curse? ‘Groupthink’ Is 30 Years Old and Still Going emphasis», New York Times, March 9, 2003, https://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/09/weekinreview/the-nation-nasascurse-groupthinkis30years-old-and-still-going-emphasis.html.
953
Richard A. Clarke and R. P. Eddy, Warnings: Finding Cassandras to Stop Catastrophes (New York: HarperCollins, 2018), 11–13.
954
Wade Robison, Roger Boisjoly, David Hoeker, and Stefan Young, «Representation and Misrepresentation: Tufte and the Morton Thiokol Engineers on the Challenger», Science and Engineering Ethics 8, no. 1 (2002), p. 72.
955
Roger Boisjoly, «Ethical Decisions – Morton Thiokol and the Space Shuttle Disaster», ASME Proceedings, December 13–18, 1987, p. 4.
956
См. также: Diane Vaughan, The Challenger Launch Decision (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1996), pp. 155, 343.
957
Joe Atkinson, «Engineer Who Opposed Challenger Launch Offers Personal Look at Tragedy», Researcher News (Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA), October 2012, https:.//www.nasa.gov/centers/langley/news/researchernews/rn_Colloquium1012.html
958
Lazarus Dean, «Oral History of the Space Shuttle Challenger Disaster.»
959
Richard Feynman, «What Do You Care What Other People Think?»: Further Adventures of a Curious Character (New York: W. W. Norton, 1988).
960
Ричард Фейнман. Не все ли равно, что думают другие? / Пер. с англ. А. Мурадян, Е. Барзовой. М., 2014.
961
Feynman, «What Do You Care», pp. 138ff. [На русском языке: Ричард Фейнман. Не все ли равно, что думают другие? / Пер. А. Мурадян, Е. Барзовой. М., АСТ, 2014. С. 173–174.]
962
Ричард Фейнман. Указ. соч.
963
Feynman, «What Do You Care», pp. 179f. [На русском языке: Ричард Фейнман. Не все ли равно, что думают другие? / Пер. А. Мурадян, Е. Барзовой. М., АСТ, 2014. С. 224–225.]
964
Там же.
965
Feynman, «What Do You Care», pp. 181–184. [На русском языке: Ричард Фейнман. Не все ли равно, что думают другие? / Пер. А. Мурадян, Е. Барзовой. М., АСТ, 2014. С. 233.]
966
Ричард Фейнман. Указ. соч.
967
Richard Feynman, «Personal Observations on the Reliability of the Shuttle», appendix F to the Rogers Commission report, https://science.ksc.nasa.gov/shuttle/missions/51l/docs/rogers-commission/AppendixF.txt. [На русском языке: Ричард Фейнман. Не все ли равно, что думают другие? / Пер. А. Мурадян, Е. Барзовой. М., АСТ, 2014. С. 301–302.]
968
Там же.
969
Feynman, «What Do You Care», p. 212. [На русском языке: Ричард Фейнман. Не все ли равно, что думают другие? / Пер. А. Мурадян, Е. Барзовой. М., АСТ, 2014. С. 267.]
970
Ричард Фейнман. Указ. соч.
971
Feynman, «What Do You Care», pp. 213–217. [На русском языке: Ричард Фейнман. Не все ли равно, что думают другие? / Пер. А. Мурадян, Е. Барзовой. М., АСТ, 2014. С. 269–270.]
972
Allan J. McDonald and James R. Hansen, Truth, Lies, and Orings: Inside the Space Shuttle Challenger Disaster (Gainesville, FL: University Press of Florida, 2009), pp. 91f.
973
McDonald and Hansen, Truth, Lies, and O-rings, pp. 102–110.
974
WJXT, «Challenger: A Rush to Launch», posted by Jason Payne, January 28, 2016, YouTube video, 50:21, https://www.youtube.com/watch?V=2FehGJQlOf0.
975
McDonald and Hansen, Truth, Lies, and O-rings, p. 107.
976
Serhii Plokhy, Chernobyl: History of a Tragedy (London: Penguin, 2018), p. 347.
977
Выражение, означающее серьезную аварию на АЭС: расплавленное топливо, как шутили физики-ядерщики, может прожечь Землю и добраться до Китая.
978
«The Real Chernobyl», dir. By Stephanie DeGroote, Sky News (2019).
979
Plokhy, Chernobyl, pp. 46–49, 321–322, 347.
980
Серия изданий по безопасности № 75-INSAG-7.
981
Серия изданий по безопасности № 75-INSAG-1.
982
World Nuclear Association, «Chernobyl Accident 1986», https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safetyofplants/chernobyl-accident.aspx. [На русском языке: Серия изданий по безопасности № 75-INSAG-1. МАГАТЭ, Вена, 1993. С. 4.]
983
Plokhy, Chernobyl, pp. 321–322.
984
Серия изданий по безопасности № 75-INSAG-7.
985
World Nuclear Association, «Chernobyl Accident 1986».
986
Plokhy, Chernobyl, pp. 46–49.
987
Plokhy, Chernobyl, p. 347.
988
World Nuclear Association, «RBMK Reactors – Appendix to Nuclear Power Reactors», https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/nuclear-power-reactors/appendices/rbmk-reactors.aspx.
989
United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation, UNSCEAR Report to the General Assembly: Sources and Effects of Ionizing Radiation (New York: United Nations, 2018), pp. 5, 15–17.
990
International Atomic Energy Agency, «Chernobyl’s Legacy: Health, Environmental and Socio-Economic Impacts», in The Chernobyl Forum, 2003–2005, 2nd rev. version (Vienna, 2006), p. 8, http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Booklets/Chernobyl/chernobyl.pdf. См. также: UN Chernobyl Forum Expert Group «Health», Health Effects of the Chernobyl Accident and Special Health Care Programmes (Geneva: World Health Organization, 2006).
991
J. Little, «The Chernobyl Accident, Congenital Anomalies and Other Reproductive Outcomes», Paediatric and Perinatal Epidemiology 7, no. 2 (April 1993), pp. 121–151, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365–3016.1993.tb00388.x.
992
Story Hinckly, «Chernobyl Will Be Uninhabitable for At Least 3,000 Years, Say Nuclear Experts», Christian Science Monitor, April 24, 2016, https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Global-News/2016/0424/Chernobyl-willbeunhabitable-foratleast3000-years-say-nuclear-experts.
993
Yu A. Izrael et al., «The Atlas of Caesium-137 Contamination of Europe After the Chernobyl Accident», Joint Study Project of the CEC/CIS Collaborative Programme on the Consequences of the Chernobyl Accident (n.d.), https://inis.iaea.org/collection/NCLCollectionStore/_Public/31/056/31056824.pdf.
994
Текст из пяти магнитофонных кассет, надиктованных академиком Легасовым В. А., «Об аварии на Чернобыльской АЭС». Кассета № 3.
995
Текст из пяти магнитофонных кассет, надиктованных академиком Легасовым В. А., «Об аварии на Чернобыльской АЭС». Кассета № 2.
996
«The Real Chernobyl.» [На русском языке: Текст из пяти магнитофонных кассет, надиктованных академиком Легасовым В. А., «Об аварии на Чернобыльской АЭС». Кассеты № 2 и № 3.]
997
United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission, «Backgrounder on the Three Mile Island Accident» (June 2018), https://www.nrc.gov/readingrm/doc-collections/fact-sheets/3mile-isle.html.
998
Three Mile Island Special Inquiry Group, Human Factors Evaluation of Control Room Design and Operator Performance at Three Mile Island-2, NUREG/CR1270, vol. I (Washington, DC: United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission, January 1980), v – vi, https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/5603680.
999
Erin Blakemore, «How the Three Mile Island Accident Was Made Even Worse by a Chaotic Response», History.com, March 27, 2019, https://www.history.com/news/three-mile-island-evacuation-orders-controversy.
1000
Federal Emergency Management Agency, Evacuation Planning in the TMI Accident (Washington, DC: FEMA, January 1980), pp. 167–170, https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a080104.pdf.
1001
«A Presidential Tour to Calm Fears», Washington Post, April 10, 1979, https://www.washingtonpost.com/wpsrv/national/longterm/tmi/stories/ch10.htm.
1002
Charles B. Perrow, «The President’s Commission and the Normal Accident», in Accident at Three Mile Island: The Human Dimensions, ed. D. Sils, C. Wolf, and V. Shelanski (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1982), pp. 173–184.
1003
К слову, именно поэтому обречена попытка некоторых газет выставить главу района от Консервативной партии главным злодеем и виновником пожара в лондонском здании Гренфелл-Тауэр. И пусть на момент написания этих строк официальное расследование все еще продолжается, уже вскоре после пожара стало ясно, что уязвимость здания была следствием чрезмерно сложных предписаний, противоречивого законодательства и неясно очерченного круга обязанностей. (Прим. авт.)
1004
Tayler Lonsdale, «Complexity Kills: What Regulators Should Learn from the Grenfell Tower Fire», July 31, 2017, https://medium.com/@tayler_onsdale/complexity-kills-what-regulators-should-learn-from-the-grenfell-tower-fire-21ec3cdfde47.
1005
See Mary Douglas and Aaron Wildavsky, Risk and Culture: An Essay on the Selection of Technical and Environmental Dangers (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1982); Ulrich Beck, Risikogesellschaft: Auf dem Wege in eine andere Moderne (Frankfurt am Main: Suhrkamp, 1982).
1006
Редьярд Киплинг. Сказки старой Англии / Пер. А. Слобожана. Л., 1984.
1007
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Science and Security Board, «Closer than Ever: It Is 100 Seconds to Midnight», ed. John Mecklin, https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/.
1008
«Greta Thunberg’s Remarks at the Davos Economic Forum», New York Times, January 23, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/21/climate/greta-thunberg-davos-transcript.html.
1009
M. Bauwens et al., «Impact of Coronavirus Outbreak on NO2 Pollution Assessed Using TROPOMI and OMI Observations», Geophysical Research Letters 47, no. 11 (May 6, 2020), pp. 1–9, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087978.
1010
Ben Goldfarb, «Lockdowns Could Be the ‘Biggest Conservation
Action’ in a Century», Atlantic, July 6, 2020, https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/07/pandemic-roadkill/613852/.
1011
«Facts + Statistics: Mortality Risk», Insurance Information Institute, https://www.iii.org/fact-statistic/facts-statistics-mortality-risk; Kenneth D. Kochanek et al., «Deaths: Final Data for 2017», National Vital Statistics Reports 68, no, 9 (June 24, 2019), pp. 1-77, https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_09-508.pdf.
1012
CDC Wonder, «About Underlying Cause of Death, 1999–2018», https://wonder.cdc.gov/ucd-icd10.html.
1013
COVID-19 Dashboard, Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE), Johns Hopkins University, https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6.
1014
«United States Coronavirus Cases», Worldometers, https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/.
1015
«COVID-19 Projections: United States of America», Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), August 6, 2020, https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-statesofamerica; «United States COVID-19 Simulator», Massachusetts General Hospital (MGH) Institute for Technology Assessment, August 10, 2020, https://analytics-tools.shinyapps.io/covid19simulator06/.
1016
Andrew Clark et al., «Global, Regional, and National Estimates of the Population at Increased Risk of Severe COVID-19 Due to Underlying Health Conditions in 2020: A Modelling Study», Lancet Global Health 8, no. 8 (June 15, 2020), pp. E1003 – E1017, https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X (20) 302643.
1017
Josh Rogin, «State Department Cables Warned of Safety Issues at Wuhan Lab Studying Bat Coronaviruses», Washington Post, April 14, 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/14/state-department-cables-warned-safety-issues-wuhan-lab-studying-bat-coronaviruses/; Adam Sage, «Coronavirus: China Bars Safety Experts from Wuhan Lab», Times (London), April 22, 2020, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/coronavirus-china-bars-safety-experts-from-wuhan-lab-brbm9rwtm.
1018
Wu Fan et al., «A New Coronavirus Associated with Human Respiratory Disease in China», Nature 579 (February 3, 2020), pp. 265–269, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-20083.
1019
Kristian G. Andersen et al., «The Proximal Origin of SARS-CoV2», Nature Medicine 26 (March 17, 2020), pp. 450–452, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-020-08209; Li Xiaojun et al., «Emergence of SARS-CoV2 Through Recombination and emphasis Purifying Selection», Science Advances 6, no. 27 (July 1, 2020), pp. 1-11, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abb9153.
1020
Следующие два абзаца опираются на статьи: Julia Belluz, «Did China Downplay the Coronavirus Outbreak Early On?» Vox, January 27, 2020, https://www.vox.com/2020/1/27/21082354/coronavirus-outbreak-wuhan-china-earlyonlancet; Dali L. Yang, «China ’s Early Warning System Didn’t Work on COVID-19. Here’s the Story», Washington Post, February 24, 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/02/24/chinas-early-warning-system-didnt-work-covid19heres-story/; Zhuang Pinghui, «Chinese Laboratory That First Shared Coronavirus Genome with World Ordered to Close for ‘Rectification,’ Hindering Its COVID-19 Research», South China Morning Post, February 28, 2020, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3052966/chinese-laboratory-first-shared-coronavirus-genome-world-ordered; Sue-Lin Wong and Yuan Yang, «China Tech Groups Censored Information About Coronavirus», March 3, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/35d7c414-5d53–11ea-8033-fa40a0d65a98; Sharri Markson, «Coronavirus NSW: Dossier Lays Out Case Against China Bat Virus Program», Daily Telegraph, May 4, 2020, https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/coronavirus/bombshell-dossier-lays-out-case-against-chinese-bat-virus-program/news-story/55add857058731c9c71c0e96ad17da60.
1021
Nicholas A. Christakis, Apollo’s Arrow: The Profound and Enduring Impact of Coronavirus on the Way We Live (New York: Little, Brown Spark, 2020), p. 5.
1022
«China Delayed Releasing Coronavirus Info, Frustrating WHO», Associated Press, June 2, 2020, https://apnews.com/3c061794970661042b18d5aeaaed9fae.
1023
Elaine Okanyene Nsoesie et al., «Analysis of Hospital Traffic and Search Engine Data in Wuhan China Indicates Early Disease Activity in the Fall of 2019», Harvard Medical School Scholarly Articles (2020), pp. 1-10, https://dash.harvard.edu/handle/1/42669767. For critiques of this paper, see Christopher Giles, Benjamin Strick, and Song Wanyuan, «Coronavirus: Fact-Checking Claims It Might Have Started in August 2019», BBC News, June 15, 2020, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-53005768, and Zhao Yusha and Leng Shumei, «Doctors Reject ‘Error-Filled’ Harvard Paper», Global Times, June 10, 2020, https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1191172.shtml.
1024
Lanhee J. Chen, «Lost in Beijing: The Story of the WHO», Wall Street Journal, April 8, 2020, https://www.wsj.com/articles/lostinbeijing-the-storyofthe-who-11586365090; Dan Blumenthal and Nicholas Eberstadt, «China Unquarantined», National Review, June 22, 2020, https://www.nationalreview.com/magazine/2020/06/22/our-disastrous-engagementofchina/#slide1.
1025
Katsuji Nakazawa, «China’s Inaction for 3 Days in January at Root of Pandemic», Nikkei Asian Review, March 19, 2020, https://asia.nikkei.com/EditorsPicks/Chinaupclose/Chinasinaction-for3daysinJanuaryatrootofpandemic.
1026
Wu Jin et al., «How the Virus Got Out», New York Times, March 22, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/22/world/coronavirus-spread.html.
1027
Li Ruiyun et al., «Substantial Undocumented Infection Facilitates the Rapid Dissemination of Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV2)», Science 368, no. 6490 (May 1, 2020), pp. 489–493, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abb3221. См. также: Wang Chaolong et al., «Evolving Epidemiology and Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on the Outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Wuhan, China», MedRxiv, March 6, 2020, pp. 1-30, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.03.20030593.
1028
Steven Sanche et al., «High Contagiousness and Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2», Emerging Infectious Diseases 26, no. 7 (July 2020), pp. 1470–1477, https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2607.200282.
1029
Zheng Ruizhi et al., «Spatial Transmission of COVID-19 Via Public and Private Transportation in China», Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease 34 (March – April 2020), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmaid.2020.101626.
1030
Benjamin F. Maier and Dirk Brockmann, «Effective Containment Explains Sub-Exponential Growth in Confirmed Cases of Recent COVID-19 Outbreak in Mainland China», MedRxiv, February 20, 2020, pp. 1–9, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.18.20024414.
1031
Maier and Brockmann, «Effective Containment Explains Sub-Exponential Growth»; Tian Huaiyu et al., «An Investigation of Transmission Control Measures During the First 50 Days of the COVID-19 Epidemic in China», Science 368, no. 6491 (May 8, 2020), pp. 638–642, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abb6105.
1032
Peter Hessler, «How China Controlled the Coronavirus», New Yorker, August 10, 2020, https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/08/17/how-china-controlled-the-coronavirus.
1033
«Readyscore Map», Prevent Epidemics, https://preventepidemics.org/map.
1034
«2019 Global Health Security Index», https://www.ghsindex.org/.
1035
Sawyer Crosby et al., «All Bets Are Off for Measuring Pandemic Preparedness», Think Global Health, June 30, 2020, https://www.thinkglobalhealth.org/article/all-bets-are-measuring-pandemic-preparedness.
1036
«Coronavirus Health Safety Countries Ranking», Deep Knowledge Group, April 2, 2020, https://www.dkv.global/covid19health-safety.
1037
Christakis, Apollo’s Arrow, pp. 13–16.
1038
Hamada S. Badr et al., «Association Between Mobility Patterns and COVID-19 Transmission in the USA: A Mathematical Modelling Study», Lancet Infectious Diseases, July 1, 2020, pp. 1–8, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473–3099 (20) 305533. См. также: Stan Oklobdzija, «Visualization of NYT COVID-19 Data», University of California, San Diego, August 14, 2020, http://acsweb.ucsd.edu/~soklobdz/covid_map.html.
1039
Hassani M. Behroozh and Yutong (Yuri) Song, «COVID-19 Application», ShinyApps, https://behroozh.shinyapps.io/COVID19/.
1040
Denise Lu, «The True Coronavirus Toll in the U. S. Has Already Surpassed 200,000», New York Times, August 13, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/08/12/us/covid-deathsus.html.
1041
National Center for Health Statistics, «Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19», https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
1042
Charles Tallack, «Understanding Excess Mortality: Comparing COVID-19’s Impact in the UK to Other European Countries», Health Foundation, June 30, 2020, https://www.health.org.uk/news-and-comment/charts-and-infographics/comparing-covid19impactintheuktoeuropean-countries.
1043
«Coronavirus Tracked: The Latest Figures as Countries Fight COVID-19 Resurgence», Financial Times, August 14, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8–5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938.
1044
Era Iyer, «Some Are Winning – Some Are Not: Which States and Territories Do Best in Beating COVID-19?» End Coronavirus, https://www.endcoronavirus.org/states?itemId=wja54gdfp032z0770ls4y81fw8cq66.
1045
Tomas Pueyo, «Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now», Medium, March 10, 2020, https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-todayorpeople-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca.
1046
Jacob B. Aguilar et al., «A Model Describing COVID-19 Community Transmission Taking into Account Asymptomatic Carriers and Risk Mitigation», MedRxiv, August 11, 2020: pp. 1-32, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.18.20037994; Sanche et al., «High Contagiousness».
1047
Eskild Petersen et al., «Comparing SARS-CoV2 with SARS-CoV and Influenza Pandemics», Lancet Infectious Diseases 20, no. 9 (September 2020), pp. E238 – E244, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473–3099 (20) 304849.
1048
См., напр.: Arnaud Fontanet et al., «Cluster of COVID-19 in Northern France: A Retrospective Closed Cohort Study», MedRxiv, April 23, 2020, pp. 1-22, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.18.20071134.
1049
«COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios», CDC, July 10, 2020, https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html.
1050
Kim Jeong-min et al., «Identification of Coronavirus Isolated from a Patient in Korea with COVID-19», Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives 11, no. 1 (February 2020), pp. 3–7, https://doi.org/10.24171/j.phrp.2020.11.1.02; Joshua L. Santarpia et al., «Aerosol and Surface Transmission Potential of SARS-CoV2», MedRxiv, June 3, 2020, pp. 1-19, https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.23.20039446v2.
1051
Valentyn Stadnytskyi et al., «The Airborne Lifetime of Small Speech Droplets and Their Potential Importance in SARS-CoV2 Transmission», PNAS 117, no. 22 (June 2, 2020), pp. 11875-11877, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2006874117; Lydia Bourouiba, «Turbulent Gas Clouds and Respiratory Pathogen Emissions: Potential Implications for Reducing Transmission of COVID-19», Journal of the American Medical Association (henceforth JAMA) 323, no. 18 (March 26, 2020), pp. 1837–1838, https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.4756.
1052
Jonathan Kay, «COVID-19 Superspreader Events in 28 Countries: Critical Patterns and Lessons», Quillette, April 23, 2020, https://quillette.com/2020/04/23/covid19superspreader-eventsin28countries-critical-patterns-and-lessons/; Lidia Morawska and Donald K. Milton, «It Is Time to Address Airborne Transmission of COVID-19», Clinical Infectious Diseases, July 6, 2020, pp. 1–9, https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciaa939.
1053
Kimberly A. Prather, Chia C. Wang, and Robert T. Schooley, «Reducing Transmission of SARS-CoV2», Science 368, no. 6498, June 26, 2020, pp. 1422–1424, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abc6197; Richard O. J. H. Stutt et al., «A Modelling Framework to Assess the Likely Effectiveness of Facemasks in Combination with ‘Lock-Down’ in Managing the COVID-19 Pandemic», Proceedings of the Royal Society 476, no. 2238 (June 10, 2020), pp. 1-21, https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2020.0376. Неубедительные аргументы против масок: Graham P. Martin, Esmée Hanna, and Robert Dingwall, «Face Masks for the Public During COVID-19: An Appeal for Caution in Policy», SocArXiv, April 25, 2020, pp. 1–7, https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/uyzxe.
1054
Qian Hua et al., «Indoor Transmission of SARS-CoV2», MedRxiv, April 7, 2020, pp. 1-22, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.04.20053058.
1055
Jordan Peccia et al., «SARS-CoV2 RNA Concentrations in Primary Municipal Sewage Sludge as a Leading Indicator of COVID-19 Outbreak Dynamics», MedRxiv, June 12, 2020, pp. 1-12, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.19.20105999; Li Yun-yun, Wang Jixiang, and Chen Xi, «Can a Toilet Promote Virus Transmission? From a Fluid Dynamics Perspective», Physics of Fluids 32, no. 6, June 16, 2020, pp. 1-15, https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0013318.
1056
Авторы многочисленных статей следовали этой гипотезе, вероятно, неправильной. См.: Wang Jingyuan et al., «High Temperature and High Humidity Reduce the Transmission of COVID-19», May 22, 2020, pp. 1-33, available at SSRN, http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3551767; Ma Yueling et al., «Effects of Temperature Variation and Humidity on the Mortality of COVID-19 in Wuhan», MedRxiv, March 18, 2020, pp. 1-13, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.15.20036426; Qi Hongchao et al., «COVID-19 Transmission in Mainland China Is Associated with Temperature and Humidity: A Time-Series Analysis», MedRxiv, March 30, 2020, pp. 1-19, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.30.20044099; Mohammad M. Sajadi et al., «Temperature, Humidity and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19», April 6, 2020, pp. 1-18, available at SSRN, http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3550308; Kyle Meng, «Research: Working Papers», http://www.kylemeng.com/research; Qasim Bukhari and Yusuf Jameel, «Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?» April 18, 2020, pp. 1-15, available at SSRN, http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3556998; Mohammad M. Sajadi et al., «Temperature, Humidity and Latitude Analysis to Estimate Potential Spread and Seasonality of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)», JAMA Network Open 3, no. 6 (June 11, 2020), pp. 1-11, https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.11834.
1057
Cristina Menni et al., «Real-Time Tracking of Self-Reported Symptoms to Predict Potential COVID19», Nature Medicine 26 (May 11, 2020), pp. 1037–1040, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-020-09162; Tyler Wagner et al., «Augmented Curation of Medical Notes from a Massive EHR System Reveals Symptoms of Impending COVID-19 Diagnosis», MedRxiv, June 11, 2020, pp. 1-13, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.19.20067660.
1058
Henrik Salje et al., «Estimating the Burden of SARS-CoV2 in France», Science 369, no. 6500 (July 10, 2020), pp. 208–211, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abc3517.
1059
Liu Xiaoqing et al., «COVID-19 Does Not Lead to a ‘Typical’ Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome», American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine 201, no. 10 (May 15, 2020), pp. 1299–1300, https://doi.org/10.1164/rccm.202003-0817LE.
1060
Derek Thompson, «COVID-19 Cases Are Rising, So Why Are Deaths Flatlining?» Atlantic, July 9, 2020, https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/07/why-covid-death-rate-down/613945/.
1061
Maximilian Ackermann et al., «Pulmonary Vascular Endothelialitis, Thrombosis, and Angiogenesis in COVID-19», New England Journal of Medicine (henceforth NEJM) 383 (July 9, 2020), pp. 120–128, https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2015432.
1062
Jennifer Beam Dowd et al., «Demographic Science Aids in Understanding the Spread and Fatality Rates of COVID-19», PNAS 117, no. 18 (May 5, 2020), pp. 9696–9698, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2004911117.
1063
Jason Douglas and Daniel Michaels, «New Data Reveal Just How Deadly COVID-19 Is for the Elderly», Wall Street Journal, June 27, 2020, https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-data-reveal-just-how-deadly-covid19isfor-the-elderly-11593250200.
1064
Graziano Onder, Giovanni Rezza, and Silvio Brusaferro, «Case-Fatality Rate and Characteristics of Patients Dying in Relation to COVID-19 in Italy», JAMA 323, no. 18 (March 23, 2020), pp. 1775–1776, https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.4683; Giacomo Grasselli et al., «Baseline Characteristics and Outcomes of 1591 Patients Infected with SARS-CoV2 Admitted to ICUs of the Lombardy Region, Italy», JAMA 323, no. 16 (April 6, 2020), pp. 1574–1581, https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.5394.
1065
Annemarie B. Docherty et al., «Features of 16,749 Hospitalised UK Patients with COVID-19 Using the ISARIC WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol», MedRxiv, April 28, 2020, pp. 1-21, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.23.20076042; Elizabeth Williamson et al., «OpenSAFELY: Factors Associated with COVID-19 Related Hospital Death in the Linked Electronic Health Records of 17 Million Adult NHS Patients», MedRxiv, May 7, 2020, pp. 1-22, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.06.20092999. См. также: Tom Whipple and Kat Lay, «Diabetes Sufferers Account for Quarter of Hospital Coronavirus Deaths», Times (London), May 15, 2020, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/diabetes-sufferers-account-for-quarterofhospital-coronavirus-deaths-lpf2rnkpf.
1066
Petersen et al., «Comparing SARS-CoV2»; Christopher M. Petrilli et al., «Factors Associated with Hospitalization and Critical Illness Among 4,103 Patients with COVID-19 Disease in New York City», MedRxiv, April 11, 2020, pp. 1-25, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.08.20057794. См. также: Paul Overberg and Jon Kamp, «U. S. Deaths Are Up Sharply, Though COVID-19’s Precise Toll Is Murky», Wall Street Journal, May 15, 2020, https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19s-exact-tollismurky-thoughusdeaths-areupsharply-11589555652.
1067
Dilip DaSilva, «Introducing the Proximity Solution: A Strategy to Win the COVID-19 War», Medium, April 14, 2020, https://medium.com/@dilip.dasilva/introducing-the-proximity-solutionastrategytowin-the-covid19war-70d5d109a9fa.
1068
«When COVID-19 Deaths Are Analysed by Age, America Is an Outlier», Economist, June 24, 2020, https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/06/24/when-covid19deaths-are-analysedbyage-americaisanoutlier; «Adult Obesity Facts», CDC, https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/data/adult.html.
1069
Paolo Perini et al., «Acute Limb Ischaemia in Young, Non-Atherosclerotic Patients with COVID-19», Lancet 395, no. 10236 (May 5, 2020), p. 1546, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140–6736 (20) 310515; Alexander E. Merkler et al., «Risk of Ischemic Stroke in Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vs Patients with Influenza», JAMA Neurology, July 2, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1001/jamaneurol.2020.2730; Ariana Eujung Cha, «Young and Middle-Aged People, Barely Sick with COVID-19, Are Dying of Strokes», Washington Post, April 25, 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/24/strokes-coronavirus-young-patients/; Ariana Eujung Cha, «‘Frostbite’ Toes and Other Peculiar Rashes May Be Signs of Hidden Coronavirus Infection, Especially in the Young», Washington Post, April 29, 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/29/coronavirus-rashes-toes/.
1070
Chris Smith, «Coronavirus Can Harm Your Body Even If You’re
Asymptomatic», Boy Genius Report (BGR) Media, June 17, 2020, https://bgr.com/2020/06/17/coronavirus-asymptomatic-spread-virus-can-harm-lungs-immune-system/.
1071
Angelo Carfì et al., «Persistent Symptoms in Patients After Acute COVID-19», JAMA 324, no. 6 (July 9, 2020), pp. 603–605, https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.12603.
1072
Silvia Garazzino et al., «Multicentre Italian Study of SARS-CoV2 Infection in Children and Adolescents, Preliminary Data as at 10 April 2020», EuroSurveillance 25, no. 18 (May 7, 2020), https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917. ES.2020.25.18.2000600; Julie Toubiana et al., «Kawasaki-Like Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Paris, France: Prospective Observational Study», BMJ 369 (June 3, 2020), pp. 1–7, https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m2094.
1073
Florian Götzinger et al., «COVID-19 in Children and Adolescents in Europe: A Multinational, Multicentre Cohort Study», Lancet Child and Adolescent Health, June 25, 2020, pp. 1–9, https://doi.org/10.1016/S2352–4642(20)301772.
1074
John Eligon et al., «Black Americans Face Alarming Rates of Coronavirus Infection in Some States», New York Times, April 14, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/07/us/coronavirus-race.html; Overberg and Kamp, «U.S. Deaths Are Up Sharply».
1075
Elizabeth J. Williamson et al., «Factors Associated with COVID-19 Related Death Using OpenSAFELY», Nature, July 8, 2020, pp. 1-17, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-25214. См. также: William Wallis, «How Somalis in East London Were Hit by the Pandemic», Financial Times, June 21, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/aaa2c3cd-eea6–4cfa-a918-9eb7d1c230f4.
1076
Neeraj Bhala et al., «Sharpening the Global Focus on Ethnicity and Race in the Time of COVID-19», Lancet 395, no. 10238 (May 8, 2020), pp. P1673 – P1676, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140–6736 (20) 311028. См. также: «The COVID-19 Racial Data Tracker», Atlantic COVID Tracking Project, https://covidtracking.com/race.
1077
David A. Martinez et al., «SARS-CoV2 Positivity Rate for Latinos in the Baltimore – Washington, D. C. Area», JAMA 324, no. 4 (June 18, 2020), pp. 392–395, https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.11374; Samantha Artiga and Matthew Rae, «The COVID-19 Outbreak and Food Production Workers: Who Is at Risk?» Kaiser Family Foundation News, June 3, 2020, https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid19/issue-brief/the-covid19outbreak-and-food-production-workers-whoisatrisk/; Jonathan M. Wortham et al., «Characteristics of Persons Who Died with COVID-19 – United States, February 12 – May 18, 2020», CDC Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) 69, no. 28 (July 17, 2020), pp. 923–929, http://dx.doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm6928e1. О коренных американцах: James Bikales, «Native American Tribal Nations Take Tougher Line on COVID-19 as States Reopen», The Hill, June 21, 2020, https://the hill.com/homenews/state-watch/503770-native-american-tribal-nations-take-tougher-lineoncovid19asstates, but also Ryan M. Close and Myles J. Stone, «Contact Tracing for Native Americans in Rural Arizona», NEJM 383, no. 3, July 16, 2020, pp. E15 – E16, https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMc2023540.
1078
Nasar Meer et al. «The Social Determinants of COVID-19 and BAME Disproportionality», Justice in Global Health Emergencies and Humanitarian Crises, May 5, 2020, https://www.ghe.law.ed.ac.uk/the-social-determinantsofcovid19and-bame-disproportionality-repostbynasar-meer-and-colleagues/. См. также: Wallis, «Somalis in East London», and Hugo Zeberg and Svante Pääbo, «The Major Genetic Risk Factor for Severe COVID-19 Is Inherited from Neandertals», BioRxiv, July 3, 2020, https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.03.186296v1.
1079
В случае, когда репродуктивное число патогена (R0) равно 4, один заболевший заражает еще четверых. Математически порог коллективного иммунитета рассчитывается как 1–1/R0, и при R0 = 4 этот порог составит 75 % населения. (Прим. авт.)
1080
Gideon Meyerowitz-Katz, «Here’s Why Herd Immunity Won’t Save Us from the COVID-19 Pandemic», Science Alert, March 30, 2020, https://www.sciencealert.com/why-herd-immunity-will-not-saveusfrom-the-covid19pandemic; Haley E. Randolph and Luis B. Barreiro, «Herd Immunity: Understanding COVID-19», Immunity 52, no. 5 (May 19, 2020), pp. 737–741, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.immuni.2020.04.012.
1081
Liu Tao et al., «Prevalence of IgG Antibodies to SARS-CoV2 in Wuhan – Implications for the Ability to Produce Long-Lasting Protective Antibodies Against SARS-CoV2», MedRxiv, June 16, 2020, pp. 1-30, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.13.20130252; Henry M. Staines et al., «Dynamics of IgG Seroconversion and Pathophysiology of COVID-19 Infections», MedRxiv, June 9, 2020), pp. 1-21, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.07.20124636; Long Quan-Xin et al., «Clinical and Immunological Assessment of Asymptomatic SARS-CoV2 Infections», Nature Medicine 26 (June 18, 2020), pp. 1200–1204, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-020-09656; F. Javier Ibarrondo et al., «Rapid Decay of Anti-SARS-CoV2 Antibodies in Persons with Mild COVID-19», NEJM, July 21, 2020, pp. 1–2, https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMc2025179.
1082
Bao Linlin et al., «Reinfection Could Not Occur in SARS-CoV2 Infected Rhesus Macaques», BioRxiv, March 14, 2020, pp. 1-20, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.13.990226; Deng Wei et al., «Primary Exposure to SARS-CoV2 Protects Against Reinfection in Rhesus Macaques», Science 369, no. 6505 (August 14, 2020), pp. 818–823, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abc5343; «News Room: Press Release», Korean Centers for Disease Control, https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000 &bid=0030; Roman Woelfel et al., «Clinical Presentation and Virological Assessment of Hospitalized Cases of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in a Travel-Associated Transmission Cluster», MedRxiv, March 8, 2020, pp. 1-16, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.05.20030502; Ania Wajnberg et al., «Humoral Immune Response and Prolonged PCR Sensitivity in a Cohort of 1343 SARS-CoV2 Patients in the New York City Region», MedRxiv, May 5, 2020, pp. 1-17, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.30.20085613. Однако см.: Apoorva Mandavilli, «First Documented Coronavirus Reinfection Reported in Hong Kong», New York Times, August 24, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/24/health/coronavirus-reinfection.html.
1083
Paul K. Hegarty et al., «BCG Vaccination May Be Protective Against COVID-19», March 2020, pp. 1–8, Research Gate, https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.35948.10880; Martha K. Berg et al., «Mandated Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) Vaccination Predicts Flattened Curves for the Spread of COVID-19», MedRxiv, June 12, 2020, pp. 1-15, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.05.20054163; Akiko Iwasaki and Nathan D. Grubaugh, «Why Does Japan Have So Few Cases of COVID-19?» European Molecular Biology Organization (EMBO) Molecular Medicine 12, no. 5 (May 8, 2020), pp. 1–3, https://doi.org/10.15252/emmm.202012481; Luis E. Escobar, Alvaro Molina-Cruz, and Carolina Barillas-Mury, «BCG Vaccine Protection from Severe Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)», PNAS, June 9, 2020, pp. 1–7, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2008410117.
1084
Zhao Jiao et al., «Relationship Between the ABO Blood Group and the COVID-19 Susceptibility», MedRxiv, March 27, 2020, pp. 1-18, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.11.20031096; David Ellinghaus et al., «Genomewide Association Study of Severe COVID-19 with Respiratory Failure», NEJM, June 17, 2020, pp. 1-13, https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2020283; Gabi Zietsman, «One Blood Type Seems to Be More Resistant Against COVID-19», Health24 Infectious Diseases, June 15, 2020, https://www.health24.com/Medical/Infectious-diseases/Coronavirus/one-blood-type-seemstobemore-resistant-against-covid19202006132.
1085
Takuya Sekine et al., «Robust T Cell Immunity in Convalescent Individuals with Asymptomatic or Mild COVID-19», BioRxiv, June 29, 2020, pp. 1-35, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.29.174888; Li Junwei et al., «Mapping the T Cell Response to COVID-19», Nature Signal Transduction and Targeted Therapy 5, no. 112 (July 2, 2020), pp. 1–2, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41392-020-002281; Alessandro Sette and Shane Crotty, «Pre-Existing Immunity to SARS-CoV2: The Knowns and Unknowns», Nature Reviews Immunology 20 (July 7, 2020), pp. 457–458, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41577-020-0389z; Floriane Gallaise et al., «Intrafamilial Exposure to SARS-CoV2 Induces Cellular Immune Response Without Seroconversion», MedRxiv, June 22, 2020, pp. 1-15, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.21.20132449; Paul W. Franks and Joacim Rocklöv, «Coronavirus: Could It Be Burning Out After 20 % of a Population Is Infected?» The Conversation, June 29, 2020, https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-coulditbeburning-out-after20ofapopulationisinfected-141584; Julian Braun et al., «Presence of SARS-CoV2 Reactive T Cells in COVID-19 Patients and Healthy Donors», MedRxiv, April 22, 2020, pp. 1-12, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.17.20061440; Kevin W. Ng et al., «Pre-Existing and De Novo Humoral Immunity to SARS-CoV2 in Humans», BioRxiv, July 23, 2020, pp. 1-38, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.14.095414; Nikolai Eroshenko et al., «Implications of Antibody-Dependent Enhancement of Infection for SARS-CoV2 Countermeasures», Nature Biotechnology 38 (June 5, 2020), pp. 789–791, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41587-020-05771.
1086
UnHerd, «Karl Friston: Up to 80 % Not Even Susceptible to COVID-19», June 4, 2020, YouTube video, 34:14, https://youtu.be/dUOFeVIrOPg; Laura Spinney, «COVID-19 Expert Karl Friston: ‘Germany May Have More Immunological Dark Matter,’» Guardian, May 31, 2020, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/31/covid19expert-karl-friston-germany-may-have-more-immunological-dark-matter.
1087
Jia Yong et al., «Analysis of the Mutation Dynamics of SARS-CoV2 Reveals the Spread History and Emergence of RBD Mutant with Lower ACE2 Binding Affinity», BioRxiv, April 11, 2020, pp. 1-17, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.09.034942; B. Korber et al., «Spike Mutation Pipeline Reveals the Emergence of a More Transmissible Form of SARS-CoV2», BioRxiv, April 30, 2020, pp. 1-33, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.29.069054. См. также: Stephen Chen, «Coronavirus’s Ability to Mutate Has Been Vastly Underestimated, and Mutations Affect Deadliness of Strains, Chinese Study Finds», South China Morning Post, April 20, 2020, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3080771/coronavirus-mutations-affect-deadliness-strains-chinese-study.
1088
Joshua Geleris et al., «Observational Study of Hydroxychloroquine in Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19», NEJM, June 18, 2020, https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmoa2012410; Alexandre B. Cavalcanti et al., «Hydroxychloroquine With or Without Azithromycin in Mild-to-Moderate COVID-19», NEJM, July 23, 2020, https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2019014; David R. Boulware et al.,
«A Randomized Trial of Hydroxychloroquine as Postexposure Prophylaxis for COVID-19», NEJM, July 23, 2020, https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2016638.
1089
«COVID-19 Vaccine Tracker», Faster Cures, Milken Institute, August 14, 2020, https://www.covid-19vaccinetracker.org/. См. в целом: Tung Thanh Le et al., «The COVID-19 Vaccine Development Landscape», Nature Reviews Drug Discovery 19 (April 9, 2020), pp. 305–306, https://doi.org/10.1038/d41573-020-000735.
1090
Stuart A. Thompson, «How Long Will a Vaccine Really Take?» New York Times, April 30, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/30/opinion/coronavirus-covid-vaccine.html.
1091
Nicholas Kumleben, R. Bhopal, T. Czypionka, L. Gruer, R. Kock, Justin Stebbing, and F. L. Stigler, «Test, Test, Test for COVID-19 Antibodies: The Importance of Sensitivity, Specificity and Predictive Powers», Public Health 185 (August 2020), pp. 88–90, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.puhe.2020.06.006.
1092
Albert-László Barabási, Network Science (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2016), chap. 10.
1093
За эту точку зрения я благодарен Сесилии Масколо из Кембриджского университета.
1094
Matthew J. Ferrari et al., «Network Frailty and the Geometry of Herd Immunity», Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 273, no. 1602 (November 7, 2006), pp. 2743–2748, https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2006.3636. См. также: M. Gabriela Gomes et al., «Individual Variation in Susceptibility or Exposure to SARS-CoV2 Lowers the Herd Immunity Threshold», MedRxiv, May 21, 2020, pp. 1-10, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893.
1095
Tom Britton, Frank Ball, and Pieter Trapman, «The Disease-Induced Herd Immunity Level for COVID-19 Is Substantially Lower than the Classical Herd Immunity Level», Quantitative Biology: Populations and Evolution, May 8, 2020, pp. 1-15, https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.03085. См. также: Ricardo Aguas et al., «Herd Immunity Thresholds for SARS-CoV2 Estimated from Unfolding Epidemics», MedRxiv, July 24, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160762.
1096
Charles Musselwhite, Erel Avineri, and Yusak Susilo, «Editorial JTH 16-The Coronavirus Disease COVID-19 and Its Implications for Transport and Health», Journal of Transport & Health 16 (March 2020), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jth.2020.100853.
1097
Michael Laris, «Scientists Know Ways to Help Stop Viruses from Spreading on Airplanes. They’re Too Late for This Pandemic», Washington Post, April 29, 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/trafficandcommuting/scientists-think-they-know-waystocombat-virusesonairplanes-theyre-too-late-for-this-pandemic/2020/04/20/83279318-76ab-11ea-87da-77a8136c1a6d_story.html.
1098
Министерство торговли США, Управление международной торговли, Национальное бюро путешествий и туризма.
1099
«Historical Flight Status», FlightStats by Cerium, https://www.flightstats.com/v2/historical-flight/subscribe.
1100
Мой спор на эту тему с Дэниелом Беллом см.: Daniel A. Bell, «Did the Chinese Government Deliberately Export COVID-19 to the Rest of the World?» Danielabell.com, April 21, 2020, https://danielabell.com/2020/04/21/did-the-chinese-government-deliberately-export-covid19tothe-restofthe-world/; Niall Ferguson, «Six Questions for Xi Jinping: An Update», Niallferguson.com, April 21, 2020, http://www.niallferguson.com/blog/six-questions-forxijinpinganupdate; Niall Ferguson, «Six Questions for Xi Jinping: Another Update», Niallferguson.com, May 26, 2020, http://www.niallferguson.com/blog/six-questions-forxijinping-another-update.
1101
Matteo Chinazzi et al., «The Effect of Travel Restrictions on the Spread of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Outbreak», MedRxiv, February 11, 2020, pp. 1-12, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.09.20021261.
1102
Steve Eder et al., «430,000 People Have Traveled from China to U. S. Since Coronavirus Surfaced», New York Times, April 4, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/04/us/coronavirus-china-travel-restrictions.html.
1103
Phillip Connor, «More than NineinTen People Worldwide Live in Countries with Travel Restrictions amid COVID-19», Fact Tank, Pew Research Center, April 1, 2020, https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/04/01/more-than-nineinten-people-worldwide-liveincountries-with-travel-restrictions-amid-covid19/; Anthony Faiola, «The Virus That Shut Down the World», Washington Post, June 26, 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/coronavirus-pandemic-globalization/?itid= hp_hp-banner-main_virus-shutdown-630pm.
1104
«Relative Risk of Importing a Case of 2019-nCoV», Google Data Studio, August 17, 2020, https://datastudio.google.com/u/0/reporting/3ffd36c3-0272-4510-a140-39e288a9f15c/page/U5lCB. См. также: Matteo Chinazzi et al., «Estimating the Risk of Sustained Community Transmission of COVID-19 Outside Mainland China», March 11, 2020, pp. 1-11, https://www.mobs-lab.org/uploads/6/7/8/7/6787877/estimating_the_risk_of_sustained_community_transmission_of_covid-19_outside_china.pdf.
1105
Javier Salas and Mariano Zafra, «An Analysis of Three COVID-19 Outbreaks: How They Happened and How They Can Be Avoided», El País English: Science & Tech, June 17, 2020, https://english.elpais.com/spanish_news/20200617/ananalysisofthree-covid19outbreaks-how-they-happened-and-how-they-canbeavoided.html; Liu Xiaopeng and Zhang Sisen, «COVID-19: Face Masks and Human-to-Human Transmission», Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 14, no. 4 (March 29, 2020), pp. 472–473, https://doi.org/10.1111/irv.12740.
1106
Lara Goscé and Anders Johansson, «Analysing the Link Between Public Transport Use and Airborne Transmission: Mobility and Contagion in the London Underground», Environmental Health 17, no. 84 (December 4, 2018), pp. 1-11, https://doi.org/10.1186/s12940-018-04275; Jeffrey E. Harris, «The Subways Seeded the Massive Coronavirus Epidemic in New York City», NBER Working Paper No. 27021 (August 2020), https://doi.org/10.3386/w27021; Stephen M. Kissler et al., «Reductions in Commuting Mobility Predict Geographic Differences in SARS-CoV2 Prevalence in New York City», Harvard School of Public Health Scholarly Articles (2020), pp. 1-15, http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn3: HUL.In stRepos:42665370.
1107
Bi Qifang et al., «Epidemiology and Transmission of COVID-19 in 391 Cases and 1286 of Their Close Contacts in Shenzhen, China: A Retrospective Cohort Study», Lancet Infectious Diseases, 20, 8, August 1, 2020, pp. P911 – P919, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473–3099 (20) 302875.
1108
Christian Bayer and Moritz Kuhn, «Intergenerational Ties and Case Fatality Rates: A Cross-Country Analysis», VoxEU & CEPR, March 20, 2020: https://voxeu.org/article/intergenerational-ties-and-case-fatality-rates.
1109
Liu Jingtao, Huang Jiaquan, and Xiang Dandan, «Large SARS-CoV2 Outbreak Caused by Asymptomatic Traveler, China», Emerging Infectious Diseases 26, no. 9 (June 30, 2020), https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2609.201798.
1110
Terry C. Jones et al., «An Analysis of SARS-CoV2 Viral Load by Patient Age», MedRxiv, June 9, 2020, pp. 1-19, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.08.20125484. См. также: Gretchen Vogel and Jennifer Couzin-Frankel, «Should Schools Reopen? Kids’ Role in Pandemic Still a Mystery», Science, May 4, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abc6227.
1111
Didier Jourdan, Nicola Gray, and Michael Marmot, «Re-Opening Schools: What Knowledge Can We Rely Upon?» UNESCO Chair Global Health and Education, May 4, 2020, https://unescochair-ghe.org/2020/05/04/reopening-schools-what-knowledge-canwerely-upon/.
1112
«Amid Surge in Israeli Virus Cases, Schools in Outbreak Areas to Be Shuttered», Times of Israel, May 30, 2020, https://www.timesofisrael.com/amid-spikeinvirus-cases-schoolsinoutbreak-areas-settoshutter/. For other school outbreaks, see Q. J. Leclerc et al., «What Settings Have Been Linked to SARS-CoV2 Transmission Clusters?» Wellcome Open Research 5, 83 (2020), p. 83, https://wellcomeopenre search.org/articles/583.
1113
Faris Mokhtar, «How Singapore Flipped from Virus Hero to Cautionary Tale», Bloomberg, April 21, 2020, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/20200421/how-singapore-flipped-from-virus-herotocautionary-tale.
1114
Tomas Pueyo, «Coronavirus: The Basic Dance Steps Everybody Can Follow», Medium, April 23, 2020, https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-basic-dance-steps-everybody-can-follow-b3d216daa343. См. также: Julie Scagell, «Study Finds Spikes in Coronavirus Cases Linked to In-Person Restaurant Dining», Yahoo! Life, July 4, 2020, https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/study-finds-spikes-coronavirus-cases-161559634.html.
1115
Yuki Furuse et al., «Clusters of Coronavirus Disease in Communities, Japan, January – April 2020», Emerging Infectious Diseases 26, no. 9 (June 10, 2020), https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2609.202272.
1116
Shin Young Park et al., «Coronavirus Disease Outbreak in Call Center, South Korea», Emerging Infectious Diseases 26, no. 8, April 23, 2020, https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2608.201274.
1117
Leclerc et al., «What Settings Have Been Linked to SARS-CoV2 Transmission Clusters?» См. также: Kay, «COVID-19 Superspreader Events.»
1118
Устаревшее название удмуртов.
1119
David Pegg, Robert Booth, and David Conn, «Revealed: The Secret Report That Gave Ministers Warning of Care Home Coronavirus Crisis», Guardian, May 7, 2020, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/07/revealed-the-secret-report-that-gave-ministers-warningofcare-home-coronavirus-crisis; Richard Coker, «‘Harvesting’ Is a Terrible Word – But It’s What Has Happened in Britain’s Care Homes», Guardian, May 8, 2020, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/08/care-home-residents-harvested-lefttodieukgovernment-herd-immunity; Robert Booth, «Coronavirus: Real Care Home Death Toll Double Official Figure, Study Says», Guardian, May 13, 2020, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/13/coronavirus-real-care-home-death-toll-double-official-figure-study-says. Cf. Tom McTague, «How the Pandemic Revealed Britain’s National Illness», Atlantic (August 2020), https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/08/why-britain-failed-coronavirus-pandemic/615166/.
1120
Gregg Girvan, «Nursing Homes and Assisted Living Facilities Account for 45 % of COVID-19 Deaths», Foundation for Research on Equal Opportunity, May 7, 2020, https://freopp.org/the-covid19nursing-home-crisisbythe-numbers-3a47433c3f70. См. также: Jessica Silver-Greenberg and Amy Julia Harris, «‘They Just Dumped Him Like Trash’: Nursing Homes Evict Vulnerable Residents», New York Times, July 23, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/21/business/nursing-homes-evictions-discharges-coronavirus.html, and Karen Yourish et al., «One-Third of All U. S. Coronavirus Deaths Are Nursing Home Residents or Workers», New York Times, May 11, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/09/us/coronavirus-cases-nursing-homesus.html.
1121
Joaquin Sapien and Joe Sexton, «‘Fire Through Dry Grass’: Andrew Cuomo Saw COVID-19’s Threat to Nursing Homes. Then He Risked Adding to It», ProPublica, June 16, 2020, https://www.propublica.org/article/fire-through-dry-grass-andrew-cuomo-saw-covid19threattonursing-homes-thenherisked-addingtoit.
1122
Цифры на середину июня. Adelina Comas-Herrera, «Mortality Associated with COVID-19 Outbreaks in Care Homes: Early International Evidence», International Long Term Care Policy Network, June 26, 2020, https://ltccovid.org/wpcontent/uploads/2020/06/Mortality-associated-with-COVID-among-people-who-use-long-term-care26June1.pdf.
1123
Николай Карамзин. История государства Российского. В 12 т. М., 2017. Т. I–II.
1124
Фридрих Август фон Хайек. Конституция свободы / Пер. с англ. Б. Пинскера. М., 2018.
1125
F. A. Hayek, The Constitution of Liberty: The Definitive Edition, ed. Ronald Hamowy, vol. 17 of The Collected Works of F. A. Hayek (Abingdon, UK: Routledge, 2011 [1960]), p. 421.
1126
Jamie Lloyd-Smith (@jlloydsmith), «Couldn’t resist such nice data and dusted off my old code», Twitter, May 20, 2020, 12:11 a.m., https://twitter.com/jlloydsmith/status/1262989192948146176; Kai Kupferschmidt, «Why Do Some COVID-19 Patients Infect Many Others, Whereas Most Don’t Spread the Virus at All?» Science, May 19, 2020, https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/whydosome-covid19patients-infect-many-others-whereas-most-dontspread-virus-all.
1127
Akira Endo et al., «Estimating the Overdispersion in COVID-19 Transmission Using Outbreak Sizes Outside China», Wellcome Open Research 5, no. 67 (July 10, 2020), https://doi.org/10.12688/wellco meopenres.15842.1.
1128
Dillon Adam et al., «Clustering and Superspreading Potential of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV2) Infections in Hong Kong», May 21, 2020 pp. 1-27, Research Square, https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs29548/v1.
1129
Michael Worobey et al., «The Emergence of SARS-CoV2 in Europe and the U. S.», BioRxiv, May 23, 2020, pp. 1-26, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.21.109322; Carl Zimmer, «Coronavirus Epidemics Began Later Than Believed, Study Concludes», New York Times, May 27, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/27/health/coronavirus-spread-united-states.html.
1130
Merle M. Böhmer et al., «Investigation of a COVID-19 Outbreak in Germany Resulting from a Single Travel-Associated Primary Case: A Case Series», Lancet Infectious Diseases 20, no. 8 (August 1, 2020), pp. P920 – P928, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473–3099 (20) 303145.
1131
Haroon Siddique, «‘Super-Spreader’ Brought Coronavirus from Singapore to Sussex via France», Guardian, February 10, 2020, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/10/super-spreader-brought-coronavirus-from-singaporetosussex-via-france.
1132
Marco Hernandez, Simon Scarr, and Manas Sharma, «The Korean Clusters: How Coronavirus Cases Exploded in South Korean Churches and Hospitals», Reuters, March 20, 2020, https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-SOUTHKOREA-CLUSTERS/0100B5G33SB/index.html.
1133
Eric Reguly, «Italy Investigates a Hospital That Failed to Catch a Coronavirus Super-Spreader as Infection Cases Rise», Globe and Mail (Toronto), March 11, 2020, https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-italy-investigates-hospital-that-failedtocatchacoronavirus-super/.
1134
Carey Goldberg, «Single Conference Linked to Most Mass. Coronavirus Cases Looks Like a ‘Superspreading Event,’» WBUR News, March 12, 2020, https://www.wbur.org/commonhealth/2020/03/12/coronavirus-outbreak-biogen-conference-superspreading; Drew Karedes, «Hotel at Center of Biogen Meeting Linked to COVID-19 Outbreak in Boston Closed Indefinitely», Boston 25 News, March 12, 2020, https://www.boston25news.com/news/hotel-center-biogen-meeting-linked-covid19outbreak-boston-closed-indefinitely/B3UTQ553RBF2BLK4A7AK4T77UI/.
1135
Jonathan Saltzman, «Biogen Conference Likely Led to 20,00 °COVID-19 Cases in Boston Area, Researchers Say», Boston Globe, August 25, 2020, https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/08/25/business/biogen-conference-likely-led-20000-covid19cases-boston-area-researchers-say/. См. также: Jacob Lemieux et al., «Phylogenetic Analysis of SARS-CoV2 in the Boston Area Highlights the Role of Recurrent Importation and Superspreading Events», MedRxiv, August 25, 2020, https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.23.20178236v1.
1136
Lea Hamner et al., «High SARS-CoV2 Attack Rate Following Exposure at a Choir Practice – Skagit County, Washington, March 2020», CDC Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) 69, no. 19 (May 12, 2020), pp. 606–610, http://dx.doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm6919e6.
1137
Per Block et al., «Social Network-Based Distancing Strategies to Flatten the COVID-19 Curve in a Post-Lockdown World», May 27, 2020, pp. 1-28, ArXiv, https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.07052; Jose Parra-Moyano and Raquel Rosés, «The Network and the Curve: The Relevance of Staying at Home», Medium, March 16, 2020, https://medium.com/@raquelroses2/the-network-and-the-curve-the-relevanceofstayingathome-a65bb73f3893.
1138
Theresa Kuchler, Dominic Russel, and Johannes Stroebel, «The Geographic Spread of COVID-19 Correlates with the Structure of Social Networks as Measured by Facebook♦», NBER Working Paper No. 26990 (August 2020), pp. 1-22, http://www.nber.org/papers/w26990.
1139
Jaron Lanier and E. Glen Weyl, «How Civic Technology Can Help Stop a Pandemic», Foreign Affairs, March 20, 2020, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/asia/20200320/how-civic-technology-can-help-stop-pandemic; Lee Yimou, «Taiwan’s New ‘Electronic Fence’ for Quarantines Leads Waves of Virus Monitoring», Reuters: Technology News, March 20, 2020, https://www.reuters.com/article/ushealth-coronavirus-taiwan-surveillanc/taiwans-new-electronic-fence-for-quarantines-leads-waveofvirus-monitoring-idUSKBN2170SK; Tomas Pueyo, «Coronavirus: Learning How to Dance», Medium, April 20, 2020, https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-learning-howtodance-b8420170203e.
1140
Chen-Hua Chen et al., «Taipei Lockdown: Three Containment Models to Flatten the Curve», Tianxia (CommonWealth), April 7, 2020, https://web.cw.com.tw/covid19-taipei-lockdownen/index.html.
1141
Dennis Normile, «Coronavirus Cases Have Dropped Sharply in South Korea. What’s the Secret to Its Success?» Science, March 17, 2020, https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/coronavirus-cases-have-dropped-sharply-south-korea-whats-secret-its-success. См. также: Max Fisher and Choe Sang-Hun, «How South Korea Flattened the Curve», New York Times, April 10, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/world/asia/coronavirus-south-korea-flatten-curve.html, and Juhwan Oh et al., «National Response to COVID-19 in the Republic of Korea and Lessons Learned for Other Countries», Health Systems & Reform 6, no. 1 (April 29, 2020), pp. 1-10, https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/23288604.2020.1753464.
1142
Zeynep Tufekci, «How Hong Kong Did It», Atlantic, May 12, 2020, https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/05/how-hong-kong-beating-coronavirus/611524/.
1143
Aravind Sesagiri Raamkumar et al., «Measuring the Outreach Efforts of Public Health Authorities and the Public Response on Facebook ♦ During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Early 2020: A Cross-Country Comparison», Journal of Medical Internet Research 22, 5 (2020), pp. 1-12, https://www.jmir.org/2020/5/e19334/pdf. Обзор азиатских приложений для отслеживания контактов: Huang Yasheng, Sun Meicen and Sui Yuze, «How Digital Contact Tracing Slowed COVID-19 in East Asia», Harvard Business Review, April 15, 2020, https://hbr.org/2020/04/how-digital-contact-tracing-slowed-covid19ineast-asia.
1144
John Authers, «Stocks Rally Suggests Turning Point in Coronavirus Fight», Bloomberg Opinion, April 6, 2020, https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/20200407/stocks-rally-suggests-turning-pointincoronavirus-fight.
1145
Michael Worobey et al., «The Emergence of SARS-CoV2 in Europe and North America», Science, September 10, 2020, https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/09/11/science.abc8169.
1146
Stephen Grey and Andrew MacAskill, «Special Report: Johnson Listened to His Scientists About Coronavirus – But They Were Slow to Sound the Alarm», Reuters, April 7, 2020, https://www.reuters.com/article/ushealth-coronavirus-britain-path-speci/special-report-johnson-listenedtohis-scientists-about-coronavirus-but-they-were-slowtosound-the-alarm-idUSKBN21P1VF.
1147
James Forsyth, «Boris Johnson Knows the Risk He Is Taking with His Coronavirus Strategy», Spectator, March 14, 2020, https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/Boris-Johnson-knows-the-riskheistaking-with-his-coronavirus-strategy.
1148
Neil Ferguson et al., «Report 9: Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) to Reduce COVID-19 Mortality and Healthcare Demand», Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team, March 16, 2020, https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk:8443/handle/10044/1/77482. See also, for similar estimates in a leaked Public Health England briefing, Denis Campbell, «UK Coronavirus Crisis ‘to Last Until Spring 2021 and Could See 7.9m Hospitalised,’» Guardian, March 15, 2020, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/ukcoronavirus-crisistolast-until-spring-2021-and-could-see-79m-hospitalised.
1149
Sarah Knapton, «Two Thirds of Coronavirus Victims May Have Died This Year Anyway, Government Adviser Says», Daily Telegraph, March 25, 2020, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/25/two-thirds-patients-die-coronavirus-would-have-died-year-anyway/.
1150
Sue Denim, «Code Review of Ferguson’s Model», Lockdown Sceptics, May 10, 2020, https://lockdown sceptics.org/code-reviewoffergusons-model/; David Richards and Konstantin Boudnik, «Neil Ferguson’s Imperial Model Could Be the Most Devastating Software Mistake of All Time», Daily Telegraph, May 16, 2020, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2020/05/16/neil-fergusons-imperial-model-could-devastating-software-mistake/.
1151
Alistair Haimes, «Ignoring the COVID Evidence», The Critic, July – August 2020, https://thecritic.co.uk/issues/july-august-2020/ignoring-the-covid-evidence/; McTague, «How the Pandemic Revealed Britain’s National Illness».
1152
Полная компиляция: Democratic Coalition, «Trump Lied, Americans Died», May 8, 2020, YouTube video, 6:20, https: v=dzAQnD//www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=8&0Oz14. См. также: Christakis, Apollo’s Arrow, pp. 153, 156f.
1153
Bob Woodward, Rage (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2020).
1154
James Fallows, «The 3 Weeks That Changed Everything», Atlantic, June 29, 2020, https://www.the atlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/06/how-white-house-coronavirus-response-went-wrong/613591/.
1155
Michael D. Shear et al., «Inside Trump’s Failure: The Rush to Abandon Leadership Role on the Virus», New York Times, July 18, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/18/us/politics/trump-coronavirus-response-failure-leadership.html; David Crow and Hannah Kuchler, «US Coronavirus Surge: ‘It’s a Failure of National Leadership,’» Financial Times, July 17, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/787125ba-5707-4718-858b-1e912fee0a38.
1156
29 января в New York Times появилось предупреждение: «Остерегайтесь пандемической паники». 31 января Washington Post настоятельно советовала «переболеть гриппом» [англ. grippe], поскольку «острая респираторная вирусная инфекция» [англ. flu, influenza] представляет собой «намного более серьезную угрозу». Тогда же, 31 января, сайт Vox опубликовал твит (впоследствии удаленный), где говорилось: «Нам предстоит смертоносная пандемия? Нет!» 3 февраля заголовок в Washington Post гласил: «Почему стоит опасаться решительного ответа властей на коронавирус? Суровые меры делают крайними маргинализированные слои населения». 5 февраля в Times осудили запрет китайским гражданам прилетать в США как «неадекватную реакцию», не основанную ни на каких доказательствах, – а также как «решение, навязанное сверху», которое способно «превратиться у жителей страны в откровенный расизм». 7 февраля Vox четко заявил, что единственное, о чем нам стоит тревожиться, – это антикитайская ксенофобия. (Прим. авт.)
1157
Zeynep Tufekci, «It Wasn’t Just Trump Who Got It Wrong», Atlantic, March 24, 2020, https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/03/what-really-doomed-americas-coronavirus-response/608596/.
1158
«President Trump Job Approval», Real Clear Politics, https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html.
1159
Pandemic and All-Hazards Preparedness and Advancing Innovation Act of 2019, S.1379, 116th Cong. (2019), https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/senate-bill/1379.
1160
«A National Blueprint for Biodefense: Leadership and Major Reform Needed to Optimize Efforts», Bipartisan Report of the Blue Ribbon Study Panel on Biodefense, October 2015, https://biodefensecommission.org/reports/anational-blueprint-for-biodefense/.
1161
«News», Bipartisan Commission on Defense, https://biodefensecommission.org/news/.
1162
White House, National Biodefense Strategy (Washington, D. C.: Government Printing Office, 2018), https://www.whitehouse.gov/wpcontent/uploads/2018/09/National-Biodefense-Strategy.pdf.
1163
Judge Glock, «Why Two Decades of Pandemic Planning Failed», Medium, April 9, 2020, https://medium.com/@judgeglock/why-two-decadesofpandemic-planning-failed-a20608d05800.
1164
Он перечисляет следующие документы: Национальная стратегия Совета по внутренней безопасности Белого дома по вопросам пандемического гриппа; Национальная стратегия плана мероприятий при пандемическом гриппе; План мероприятий Министерства обороны США по борьбе с пандемическим гриппом; План Министерства здравоохранения и социальных служб по борьбе с пандемическим гриппом (издан в 2005, 2009 и 2017 годах); ежегодно обновляемая Программа национального реагирования Министерства внутренней безопасности; Федеральный межведомственный оперативный план; Национальная стратегия безопасности в области здравоохранения США; Стратегия национальной безопасности Белого дома; Тактические меры Совета национальной безопасности по раннему реагированию на угрозы инфекционных заболеваний с опасными последствиями и биологических катастроф; Национальный план мер по обеспечению безопасности в области здравоохранения США и Североамериканский план по борьбе с гриппом животных и пандемическим гриппом. (Прим. авт.)
1165
Единственным вкладом Роберта Кадлека, достойным упоминания, было быстрое увольнение доктора Рика Брайта с поста главы Управления перспективных биомедицинских исследований и разработок (BARDA). (Прим. авт.)
1166
«Evolution of Biodefense Policy with Dr. Robert Kadlec», Robert Strauss Center, October 18, 2018, https://www.youtube.com/watch?list=UUPLAYER_RobertStraussCenter &v=6U4e4029SpE.
1167
Niall Ferguson, The Great Degeneration: How Institutions Decay and Economies Die (London: Allen Lane, 2012).
1168
Josh Margolin and James Gordon Meek, «Intelligence Report Warned of Coronavirus Crisis as Early as November: Sources», ABC News, April 8, 2020, https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/intelligence-report-warned-coronavirus-crisis-early-november-sources/story? id= 70031273; Fallows, «3 Weeks That Changed Everything.»
1169
Michael D. Shear, Sheri Fink, and Noah Welland, «Inside the Trump Administration, Debate Raged over What to Tell Public», New York Times, March 9, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/07/us/politics/trump-coronavirus.html; Jonathan Swan and Margaret Talev, «Navarro Memos Warning of Mass Coronavirus Death Circulated in January», Axios, April 7, 2020, https://www.axios.com/exclusive-navarro-deaths-coronavirus-memos-january-da3f08fb-dce1–4f69–89b5-ea048f8382a9.html; Philip A. Wallach and Justus Myers, «The Federal Government’s Coronavirus Response – Public Health Timeline», Brookings, March 31, 2020, https://www.brookings.edu/research/the-federal-governments-coronavirus-actions-and-failures-timeline-and-themes/.
1170
Paul Kane, «Early On, Cheney and Cotton Warned About the Coronavirus. They Still Face Pushback in the GOP», Washington Post, April 4, 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/earlyoncheney-and-cotton-warned-about-the-coronavirus-they-still-face-push-backinthe-gop/2020/04/04/d6676200-75df-11ea-87da-77a8136c1a6d_story.html.
1171
Robert Costa and Philip Rucker, «Woodward Book: Trump Says He Knew Coronavirus Was ‘Deadly,’» Washington Post, September 9, 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/bob-woodward-rage-book-trump/2020/09/09/0368fe3c-efd2-11ea-b4bc-3a2098fc73d4_story.html.
1172
Greg Miller, Josh Dawsey, and Aaron C. Davis, «One Final Viral Infusion: Trump’s Move to Block Travel from Europe Triggered Chaos and a Surge of Passengers from the Outbreak’s Center», Washington Post, May 23, 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/one-final-viral-infusion-trumps-movetoblock-travel-from-europe-triggered-chaos-andasurgeofpassengers-from-the-outbreaks-center/2020/05/23/64836a00-962b-11ea-82b4-c8db161ff6e5_story.html.
1173
Fallows, «3 Weeks That Changed Everything».
1174
Anne Applebaum, «The Coronavirus Called America’s Bluff», Atlantic, March 15, 2020, https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/coronavirus-showed-america-wasnt-task/608023/; Jon Cohen, «The United States Badly Bungled Coronavirus Testing – But Things May Soon Improve», Science, February 28, 2020, https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/united-states-badly-bungled-coronavirus-testing-things-may-soon-improve.
1175
Robinson Meyer and Alexis C. Madrigal, «Exclusive: The emphasisest Evidence Yet That America Is Botching Coronavirus Testing», Atlantic, March 6, 2020, https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-many-americans-have-been-tested-coronavirus/607597/; Christopher Weaver, Betsy McKay, and Brianna Abbott, «America Needed Coronavirus Tests. The Government Failed», Wall Street Journal, March 19, 2020, https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-washington-failedtobuildarobust-coronavirus-testing-system-11584552147; Lazaro Gamio, Cai Weiyi, and Adeel Hassan, «Where the U. S. Stands Now on Coronavirus Testing», New York Times, March 27, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/26/us/coronavirus-testing-states.html.
1176
Joel Eastwood, Paul Overberg, and Rob Barry, «Why We Don’t Know How Many Americans Are Infected with Coronavirus – And Might Never Know», Wall Street Journal, April 4, 2020, https://www.wsj.com/articles/whywedont-know-how-many-americans-are-infected-with-coronavirusand-might-never-know-11586005200.
1177
Veronique de Rugy, «The Monumental Failure of the CDC», American Institute for Economic Research, April 11, 2020, https://www.aier.org/article/the-monumental-failureofthe-cdc/; Bret Stephens, «COVID-19 and the Big Government Problem», New York Times, April 10, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/opinion/coronavirus-FDA.html.
1178
Eric Lipton et al., «The C. D. C. Waited ‘Its Entire Existence for This Moment.’ What Went Wrong?» New York Times, June 3, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/03/us/cdc-coronavirus.html.
1179
Sheri Fink, «Worst-Case Estimates for U. S. Coronavirus Deaths», New York Times, March 13, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/coronavirus-deaths-estimate.html. См. также: Lydia Ramsey Pflanzer, «One Slide in a Leaked Presentation for U. S. Hospitals Reveals That They’re Preparing for Millions of Hospitalizations as the Outbreak Unfolds», Business Insider, March 6, 2020, https://www.businessinsider.com/presentationushospitals-preparing-for-millionsofhospitalizations-20203.
1180
Li Ruoran et al., «The Demand for Inpatient and ICU Beds for COVID-19 in the U. S.: Lessons from Chinese Cities», Harvard Library Office for Scholarly Communication (March 2020), pp. 1-17, https://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/42599304/Inpatient%20ICU%20beds%20needs%20for%20COVID19 %20medRxiv.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y; Margot Sanger-Katz, Sarah Kliff, and Alicia Parlapiano, «These Places Could Run Out of Hospital Beds as Coronavirus Spreads», New York Times, March 17, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/17/upshot/hospital-bed-shortages-coronavirus.html.
1181
Плотность населения в Ухане в 2,6 раза выше, чем в Сан-Франциско; в Милане – в 1,6 раза выше, чем в Нью-Йорке, а Нью-Йорк – это, без сомнения, самый густонаселенный из американских городов. (Прим. авт.)
1182
Demographia, Demographia World Urban Areas: 16th Annual Edition (June 2020), pp. 1-94, http://demographia.com/dbworldua.pdf.
1183
«TSA Travel Checkpoint Numbers for 2020 and 2019», U. S. Transportation Security Administration, https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput.
1184
Tony Romm, Elizabeth Dwoskin, and Craig Timberg, «U. S. Government, Tech Industry Discussing Ways to Use Smartphone Location Data to Combat Coronavirus», Washington Post, March 17, 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/03/17/white-house-location-data-coronavirus/.
1185
Fred Sainz, «Apple and Google Partner on COVID-19 Contact Tracing Technology», April 10, 2020, https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2020/04/apple-and-google-partneroncovid19contact-tracing-technology/.
1186
Patrick McGree, «Apple and Google Announce New Contact-Tracing Tool», Financial Times, September 1, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/0ed38c49-fafe-4e7b-bd57–44c705ba52f7.
1187
Derek Watkins et al., «How the Virus Won», New York Times, June 25, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-spread.html; Benedict Carey and James Glanz, «Travel from New York City Seeded Wave of U. S. Outbreaks», New York Times, July 16, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/07/us/new-york-city-coronavirus-outbreak.html.
1188
Google, «COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports», https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/; SafeGraph, «Shelter in Place Index: The Impact of Coronavirus on Human Movement», https://www.safegraph.com/dashboard/covid19-shelterinplace.
1189
Wang Shuo, «U. S. Ventilator Data Tells Me Wuhan Really Took a Bullet for China», Caixin Global, March 29, 2020, https://www.caixinglobal.com/20200329/asussitsonample-ventilator-supply-china-wages-must-win-battletocontain-covid19inhubei-101535747.html; Sharon Begley, «With Ventilators Running Out, Doctors Say the Machines Are Overused for COVID-19», STAT News, April 8, 2020, https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/08/doctors-say-ventilators-overused-for-covid19/.
1190
Joe Sexton and Joaquin Sapien, «Two Coasts. One Virus. How New York Suffered Nearly 10 Times the Number of Deaths as California», ProPublica, May 16, 2020, https://www.propublica.org/article/two-coasts-one-virus-how-new-york-suffered-nearly10times-the-numberofdeathsascalifornia. См. также: Britta L. Jewell and Nicholas P. Jewell, «The Huge Cost of Waiting to Contain the Pandemic», New York Times, April 14, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/20/us/coronavirus-distancing-deaths.html.
1191
Badr et al., «Association Between Mobility Patterns.» См. также: Unacast, «Social Distancing Scoreboard», https://www.unacast.com/covid19/social-distancing-scoreboard.
1192
Ding Wenzhi et al., «Social Distancing and Social Capital: Why U. S. Counties Respond Differently to COVID-19», NBER Working Paper No. 27393 (June 2020), pp. 1-33, https://www.nber.org/papers/w27393.
1193
Christopher DeMuth, «Can the Administrative State Be Tamed?» Journal of Legal Analysis 8, no. 1 (Spring 2016), pp. 121–190.
1194
Philip Zelikow, «To Regain Policy Competence: The Software of American Public Problem-Solving», Texas National Security Review 2, no. 4 (August 2019), pp. 110–127, http://dx.doi.org/10.26153/tsw/6665.
1195
Francis Fukuyama, Political Order and Political Decay: From the Industrial Revolution to the Globalisation of Democracy (London: Profile Books, 2014), p. 469.
1196
«Ветократия» (термин Фрэнсиса Фукуямы) – система власти, при которой никто не может получить полномочия для принятия решений, поскольку другие обладают правом вето; «клуджекратия» – громоздкая и неуклюжая система управления, которая работает неведомо как и вопреки всему (от англ. kludge – самоделка, временное решение, принятое на скорую руку).
1197
Marc Andreesen, «It’s Time to Build», Andreesen Horowitz, April 18, 2020, https://a16z.com/2020/04/18/its-timetobuild/; Ezra Klein, «Why We Can’t Build», Vox, April 22, 2020, https://www.vox.com/2020/4/22/21228469/marc-andreessen-build-government-coronavirus; Steven M. Teles, «Kludgeocracy: The American Way of Policy», New America Foundation, December 2012, pp. 1-11, https://static.newamerica.org/attachments/4209-kludgeocracy-the-american-wayofpolicy/Teles_Steven_Kludgeocracy_NAF_Dec2012.d8a805aa40e34bca9e2fecb018a3dcb0.pdf.
1198
Пландемия – рукотворная эпидемия; инфодемия – «эпидемия» ложной информации.
1199
For just one of many examples: Jeff Horwitz and Deepa Seetharaman, «Facebook♦ Executives Shut Down Efforts to Make the Site Less Divisive», Wall Street Journal, May 26, 2020, https://www.wsj.com/articles/facebook-knowsitencourages-division-top-executives-nixed-solutions-11590507499.
1200
Я намеревался посвятить этой важнейшей истории 2020 года две главы: в одной раскрывались бы проблемы, выявленные во время выборов 2016 года («Структурные изменения публичной сферы»), а в другой – неспособность законодателей и регулирующих органов достичь к 2020 году хоть каких-то существенных улучшений («Что не было сделано»). Однако из-за нехватки места от этих глав пришлось отказаться. (Прим. авт.)
1201
«Coronavirus: How a Misleading Map Went Global», BBC News, February 19, 2020.
1202
Lena H. Sun, «CDC to Cut by 80 Percent Efforts to Prevent Global Disease Outbreak», Washington Post, February 1, 2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/toyour-health/wp/2018/02/01/cdctocutby80percent-effortstoprevent-global-disease-outbreak/; Glenn Kessler, «No, Trump Didn’t Shut Down 37 of 47 Global Anti-Pandemic Programs», Washington Post, March 4, 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/03/04/notrump-didnt-shut-down3747global-anti-pandemic-programs/.
1203
Leonardo Bursztyn et al., «Misinformation During a Pandemic», Becker Friedman Institute for Economics Working Paper No. 2020-044 (June 2020), pp. 1-118, https://bfi.uchicago.edu/wpcontent/uploads/BFI_WP_202044.pdf.
1204
Andrey Simonov et al., «The Persuasive Effect of Fox News: Non-Compliance with Social Distancing During the COVID-19 Pandemic», NBER Working Paper No. 27237 (July 2020), pp. 1-70, http://www.nber.org/papers/w27237.
1205
Lijian Zhao (@zlj517), «CDC was caught on the spot», Twitter, March 12, 2020, 8:37 a.m., https://twitter.com/zlj517/status/1238111898828066823.
1206
Steven Lee Myers, «China Spins Tale That the U. S. Army Started the Coronavirus Epidemic», New York Times, March 13, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/world/asia/coronavirus-china-conspiracy-theory.html.
1207
Edward Wong, Matthew Rosenberg, and Julian E. Barnes, «Chinese Agents Helped Spread Messages That Sowed Virus Panic in U. S., Officials Say», New York Times, April 22, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/22/us/politics/coronavirus-china-disinformation.html.
1208
Virginia Alvino Young, «Nearly Half of the Twitter Accounts Discussing ‘Reopening America’ May Be Bots», Carnegie Mellon University School of Computer Science, May 20, 2020, https://www.cs.cmu.edu/news/nearly-half-twitter-accounts-discussing-reopening-america-maybebots.
1209
«Analysis of June 2020 Twitter Takedowns Linked to China, Russia and Turkey», Stanford Internet Observatory Cyber Policy Center blog, June 11, 2020, https://cyber.fsi.stanford.edu/io/news/june-2020-twitter-takedown#china.
1210
Dominic Kennedy, «British Academics Sharing Coronavirus Conspiracy Theories Online», Times, April 11, 2020, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/british-academics-sharing-coronavirus-conspiracy-theories-online-v8nn99zmv.
1211
Ben Norton (@BenjaminNorton), «@TheGrayzoneNews we published the exposé many people have asked for», Twitter, July 9, 2020, 11:15 a.m., https://twitter.com/BenjaminNorton/status/1281275778316095491; Jeremy Loffredo and Michele Greenstein, «Why the Bill Gates Global Health Empire Promises More Empire and Less Public Health», The Gray Zone, July 8, 2020, https://thegrayzone.com/2020/07/08/bill-gates-global-health-policy/.
1212
Kevin Roose, «Get Ready for a Vaccine Information War», New York Times, June 3, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/13/technology/coronavirus-vaccine-disinformation.html.
1213
Karen Kornbluh, Ellen P. Goodman, and Eli Weiner, «Safeguarding Democracy Against Disinformation», German Marshall Fund of the United States, March 24, 2020, http://www.gmfus.org/publications/safeguarding-democracy-against-disinformation.
1214
Neil F. Johnson et al., «The Online Competition Between Pro-and Anti-Vaccination Views», Nature 582 (May 13, 2020), pp. 230–233, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-22811; Ari Sen and Brandy Zadrozny, «QAnon Groups Have Millions of Members on Facebook♦, Documents Show», NBC News, August 10, 2020, https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/qanon-groups-have-millions-members-facebook-documents-show-n1236317.
1215
«Conspiracies of Corona», Pulsar Platform, https://www.pulsarplatform.com/resources/the-conspiraciesofcorona/.
1216
Horwitz and Seetharaman, «Facebook♦ Executives Shut Down Efforts».
1217
Kathleen Hall Jamieson and Dolores Albarracín, «The Relation Between Media Consumption and Misinformation at the Outset of the SARS-CoV2 Pandemic in the U. S.», Harvard Kennedy School Misinformation Review 1 (April 20, 2020), pp. 1-22, https://misinforeview.hks.harvard.edu/article/the-relation-between-media-consumption-and-misinformationatthe-outsetofthe-sars-cov2pandemicintheus/.
1218
«On Coronavirus and Conspiracies», Public Policy and the Past (blog), April 17, 2020, http://publicpol icypast.blogspot.com/2020/04/oncoronavirus-and-conspiracies.html. But См. также: Stephen Cushion et al., «Coronavirus: Fake News Less of a Problem Than Confusing Government Messages – New Study», The Conversation, June 12, 2020, https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-fake-news-lessofaproblem-than-confusing-government-messages-new-study-140383.
1219
Andrew Romano, «New Yahoo News /YouGov Poll Shows Coronavirus Conspiracy Theories Leading on the Right May Hamper Vaccine Efforts», Yahoo! News, May 22, 2020, https://news.yahoo.com/new-yahoo-news-you-gov-poll-shows-coronavirus-conspiracy-theories-spreadingonthe-right-may-hamper-vaccine-efforts-152843610.html.
1220
Katarina Rebello et al., «COVID-19 News and Information from State-Backed Outlets Targeting French, German and Spanish-Speaking Social Media Users: Understanding Chinese, Iranian, Russian and Turkish Outlets», Computational Propaganda Project (COMPROP), Oxford Internet Institute, University of Oxford, https://kq.freepressunlimited.org/evidence/covid19news-and-information-from-state-backed-outlets-targeting-french-german-and-spanish-speaking-social-media-users-understanding-chinese-iranian-russian-and-turkish-outlets/.
1221
Rex Chapman (@RexChapman), «This angry Florida woman argued today against the mask mandate», Twitter, June 24, 2020, 4:01 p.m., https://twitter.com/RexChapman/status/1275912010555932672.
1222
Will Sommer, «Trump’s New Favorite COVID Doctor Believes in Alien DNA, Demon Sperm, and Hydroxychloroquine», Daily Beast, July 28, 2020, https://www.thedailybeast.com/stella-immanuel-trumps-new-covid-doctor-believesinalien-dna-demon-sperm-and-hydroxychloroquine.
1223
John Maynard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace (New York: Harcourt, Brace, and Howe: 1920).
1224
Keynes, Economic Consequences of the Peace, p. 268.
1225
Olivier Accominotti and David Chambers, «If You’re So Smart: John Maynard Keynes and Currency Speculation in the Interwar Years», Journal of Economic History 76, no. 23 (2016), pp. 342–386, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022050716000589.
1226
International Monetary Fund, «A Crisis Like No Other, an Uncertain Recovery», World Economic Outlook Update, June 2020, https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdate June2020; «A Long and Difficult Asscent» (October 2020), https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020.
1227
Chris Giles, «BoE Warns UK Set to Enter Worst Recession for 300 Years», Financial Times, May 7, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/734e604b-93d9-43a6-a6ec-19e8b22dad3c.
1228
Саммерс впервые использовал эту фразу в ноябре 2019 г. на мероприятии в Гарвардской школе государственного управления.
1229
Andrew Edgecliffe-Johnson, «U. S. Supply Chains and Ports Under Strain from Coronavirus», Financial Times, March 2, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/5b5b8990-5a98–11ea-a528-dd0f971febbc.
1230
Yuan Yang et al., «Hidden Infections Challenge China’s Claim Coronavirus Is Under Control», Financial Times, March 26, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/4aa35288-3979-44f7-b204-b881f473fca0.
1231
Mike Bird, John Emont, and Shan Li, «China Is Open for Business, but the Postcoronavirus Reboot Looks Slow and Rocky», Wall Street Journal, March 26, 2020, https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinaisopen-for-business-but-the-post-coronavirus-reboot-looks-slow-and-rocky-11585232600; Keith Bradsher, «China’s Factories Are Back. Its Consumers Aren’t», New York Times, April 28, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/28/business/china-coronavirus-economy.html.
1232
John Liu et al., «China Abandons Hard Growth Target, Shifts Stimulus Focus to Jobs», Bloomberg, May 22, 2020, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/20200522/chinatoabandon-numerical-growth-target-amid-virus-uncertainty.
1233
Frank Tang, «Coronavirus: China’s Central Bank, Finance Ministry at Odds over Funding for Economic Recovery», South China Morning Post, May 6, 2020, https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3083193/coronavirus-chinas-central-bank-finance-ministry-odds-over; Frank Tang, «China’s Top Bank Regulator Sees Surge of Bad Loans Straining Financial System in 2020, 2021», South China Morning Post, August 13, 2020, https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3097229/chinas-top-bank-regulator-sees-surge-bad-loans-straining.
1234
Anthony Faiola, «The Virus That Shut Down the World», Washington Post, June 26, 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/coronavirus-pandemic-globalization/?itid=hp_hp-banner-main_virus-shutdown-630pm.
1235
Clara Ferreira Marques, «The Coronavirus Is a Human Credit Crunch», Bloomberg, March 4, 2020, https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/20200304/coronavirusisahuman-versionofthe-credit-crunch.
1236
«The State of the Restaurant Industry», OpenTable by Booking.com, https://www.opentable.com/stateofindustry.
1237
SafeGraph, «The Impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) on Foot Traffic», August 18, 2020, https://www.safegraph.com/dashboard/covid19-commerce-patterns.
1238
Justin Baer, «The Day Coronavirus Nearly Broke the Financial Markets», Wall Street Journal, May 20, 2020, https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-day-coronavirus-nearly-broke-the-financial-markets-11589982288.
1239
John Plender, «The Seeds of the Next Debt Crisis», Financial Times, March 3, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/27cf0690-5c9d-11ea-b0ab-339c2307bcd4.
1240
Eva Szalay, «Dollar Surge Stirs Talk of Multilateral Move to Weaken It», Financial Times, March 24, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/931ddba6–6dd2-11ea-9bca-bf503995cd6f.
1241
Andreas Schrimpf, Hyun Song Shin, and Vladyslav Sushko, «Leverage and Margin Spirals in Fixed Income Markets During the COVID-19 Crisis», Bank of International Settlements Bulletin 2 (April 2, 2020), https://www.bis.org/publ/bisbull02.htm.
1242
Gavyn Davies, «A Strategy for the Dysfunctional U. S. Treasuries Market», Financial Times, March 22, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/8df468f2–6a4e-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3.
1243
Nick Timiraos and John Hilsenrath, «The Federal Reserve Is Changing What It Means to Be a Central Bank», Wall Street Journal, April 27, 2020, https://www.wsj.com/articles/fate-and-history-the-fed-tosses-the-rulestofight-coronavirus-downturn-11587999986.
1244
Lev Menand, «Unappropriated Dollars: The Fed’s Ad Hoc Lending Facilities and the Rules That Govern Them», European Corporate Governance Institute (ECGI) – Law Working Paper No. 518/2020 (May 22, 2020), available at SSRN, http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3602740.
1245
Joshua Jamerson, Andrew Duehren, and Natalie Andrews, «Senate Approves Nearly $ 2 Trillion in Coronavirus Relief», Wall Street Journal, March 26, 2020, https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-administration-senate-democrats-saidtoreach-stimulus-bill-deal-11585113371.
1246
«Budget Projections: Debt Will Exceed the Size of the Economy This Year», Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget blog, April 13, 2020, http://www.crfb.org/blogs/budget-projections-debt-will-exceed-size-economy-year.
1247
Jeffrey M. Jones, «President Trump’s Job Approval Rating Up to 49 %», Gallup, March 24, 2020, https://news.gallup.com/poll/298313/president-trump-job-approval-rating.aspx.
1248
Francis Wilkinson, «Gavin Newsom Declares California a ‘Nation-State,’» Bloomberg, April 9, 2020, https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/20200409/california-declares-independence-from-trumpscoronavirus-plans; Scott Clement and Dan Balz, «Many Governors Win Bipartisan Support for Handling of Pandemic, but Some Republicans Face Blowback over Reopening Efforts», Washington Post, May 12, 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/many-governors-win-bipartisan-support-for-handlingofpandemic-but-some-republicans-face-blowback-over-reopening-efforts/2020/05/11/8e98500e-93d2-11ea-9f5e-56d8239bf9ad_story.html; «April 14–19 Washington Post – U. Md. Poll», Washington Post, May 5, 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/context/april1419washington-postumdpoll/4521bb45-b844-4dbd-b72d-0a298cf7539a; «NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey Study #200203», Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies, April 13–15, 2020, https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6842659-200203-NBCWSJ-April-Poll41920Release.html.
1249
«Most Americans Say Trump Was Too Slow in Initial Response to Coronavirus Threat», Pew Research Center, April 16, 2020, https://www.people-press.org/2020/04/16/most-americans-say-trump-was-too-slowininitial-responsetocoronavirus-threat/.
1250
«Coronavirus: Outbreak Concern», Civiqs, https://civiqs.com/results/coronavirus_concern?uncertainty.
1251
Mat Krahn, «We all have Schrodinger’s Virus now», Facebook♦, March 30, 2020, https://www.facebook.com/mat.krahn/posts/3076953808995462.
1252
Patrick G. T. Walker et al., «The Global Impact of COVID-19 and Strategies for Mitigation and Suppression», Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team Report 12 (March 26, 2020), https://doi.org/10.25561/77735.
1253
Nicholas Kristof and Stuart A. Thompson, «Trump Wants to ‘Reopen America.’ Here’s What Happens If We Do», New York Times, March 25, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/25/opinion/coronavirus-trump-reopen-america.html.
1254
Maria Chikina and Wesley Pegden, «A Call to Honesty in Pandemic Modeling», Medium, March 29, 2020, https://medium.com/@wpegden/acalltohonestyinpandemic-modeling-5c156686a64b.
1255
Seth Flaxman et al., «Estimating the Number of Infections and the Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European Countries», Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team Report 13 (March 30, 2020), https://doi.org/10.25561/77731.
1256
Walker et al., «The Global Impact of COVID-19».
1257
Felicia Sonmez, «Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick Comes Under Fire for Saying Seniors Should ‘Take a Chance’ on Their Own Lives for Sake of Grandchildren During Coronavirus Crisis», Washington Post, March 24, 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/texasltgov-dan-patrick-comes-under-fire-for-saying-seniors-should-takeachanceontheir-own-lives-for-sakeofgrandchildren-during-coronavirus-crisis/2020/03/24/e6f64858-6de6-11ea-b148-e4ce3fbd85b5_story.html.
1258
Andrew Cuomo (@NYGovCuomo), «My mother is not expendable. Your mother is not expendable», Twitter, March 24, 2020, 9:43 a.m., https://twitter.com/NYGovCuomo/status/1242477029083295746.
1259
Thomas J. Kniesner and W. Kip Viscusi, «The Value of a Statistical Life», Vanderbilt Law Research Paper No. 1915 (May 16, 2019), available at SSRN, http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3379967.
1260
Greg Ip, «Economics vs. Epidemiology: Quantifying the Trade-Off», Wall Street Journal, April 15, 2020, https://www.wsj.com/articles/economicsvsepidemiology-quantifying-the-trade-off-11586982855.
1261
Andrew Scott, «How Aging Societies Should Respond to Pandemics», Project Syndicate, April 22, 2020, https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/how-aging-societies-should-respondtopandemicsbyandrew-scott-202004.
1262
Я благодарен Эдварду Лэзиру за разъяснение этой проблемы. Если вам интересен альтернативный взгляд, согласно которому «с экономической точки зрения наш отклик соответствовал угрозе, исходящей от вируса», см.: Nicholas A. Christakis, Apollo’s Arrow: The Profound and Enduring Impact of Coronavirus on the Way We Live (New York: Little, Brown Spark, 2020), pp. 304f.
1263
Christos A. Makridis and Jonathan Hartley, «The Cost of COVID-19: A Rough Estimate of the 2020 U. S. GDP Impact», Mercatus Center Special Edition Policy Brief, March 23, 2020, доступно в источнике: SSRN, http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3559139.
1264
Jay Boice, «Experts Say the Coronavirus Outlook Has Worsened, But the Trajectory Is Still Unclear», FiveThirtyEight, March 26, 2020, https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/experts-say-the-coronavirus-outlook-has-worsened-but-the-trajectoryisstill-unclear/.
1265
Roman Marchant et al., «Learning as We Go: An Examination of the Statistical Accuracy of COVID-19 Daily Death Count Predictions», May 26, 2020, https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.04734. For a critique of the models, see Andrea Saltelli et al., «Five Ways to Ensure That Models Serve Society: A Manifesto», Nature 582 (June 24, 2020), pp. 482–484, https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-020-018129.
1266
Eskild Petersen et al., «Comparing SARS-CoV2 with SARS-CoV and Influenza Pandemics», Lancet Infectious Diseases 20, no. 9 (September 2020), pp. E238 – E244, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473–3099 (20) 304849.
1267
«EuroMOMO Bulletin», European Mortality Monitoring Project, http://www.euromomo.eu/; «Weekly Death Statistics: Dramatic Rise in Deaths in Early Spring», Eurostat, July 21, 2020, https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Weekly_death_statistics &stable#Dramatic_rise_in_deaths_in_early_spring.
1268
«Tracking COVID-19 Excess Deaths Across Countries», Economist, July 15, 2020, https://www.econo mist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/16/tracking-covid19excess-deaths-across-countries; Jin Wu et al., «Missing Deaths: Tracking the True Toll of the Coronavirus Outbreak», New York Times, July 31, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html; «Coronavirus Tracked: The Latest Figures as Countries Fight COVID-19 Resurgence», Financial Times, August 18, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441.
1269
Об очень спорном вопросе приписывания смертей COVID-19 и иным причинам избыточной смертности, см.: John Lee, «The Way ‘COVID Deaths’ Are Being Counted Is a National Scandal», Spectator, May 30, 2020, https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-way-covid-deaths-are-being-countedisanational-scandal; David Spiegelhalter, «COVID and ‘Excess Deaths’ in the Week Ending April 10th», Medium, April 24, 2020, https://medium.com/wintoncentre/covid-and-excess-deathsinthe-week-ending-april-10th-20ca7d355ec4.
1270
Sarah Caul et al., «Deaths Registered Weekly in England and Wales, Provisional: Week Ending 27 March 2020», UK Office for National Statistics, April 7, 2020, https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending27march2020#deaths-registeredbyweek.
1271
Chris Giles, «UK Coronavirus Deaths More than Double Official Figure, According to FT Study», Financial Times, April 21, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/67e6a4ee-3d05–43bc-ba03-e239799fa6ab.
1272
«COVID-19 Daily Deaths», NHS England, https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid19daily-deaths/.
1273
Lewis Goodall (@lewis_goodall): «Глядя на данные @ONS о смертях в Европе, становится совершенно понятно, насколько плохи дела в Англии», Twitter, July 30, 2020, 11:15 a.m., https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1288886067039535104.
1274
John Burn-Murdoch and Chris Giles, «UK Suffers Second-Highest Death Rate from Coronavirus», Financial Times, May 28, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/6b4c784e-c259-4ca4–9a82-648ffde71bf0.
1275
Harry Kennard (@HarryKennard), «ONS have updated their weekly mortality figures up to April 10th for England and Wales», Twitter, April 21, 2020, 2:59 a.m., https://twitter.com/HarryKennard/status/1252522319903436800.
1276
«Coronavirus Tracked», Financial Times.
1277
Burn-Murdoch and Giles, «UK Suffers Second-Highest Death Rate».
1278
«Pneumonia and Influenza Surveillance from the National Center for Health Statistics Mortality Surveillance System», CDC FluView Interactive, https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html; «COVIDView Weekly Summary», COVIDView, CDC, https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html? CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fcovid-data%2Fcovidview.html. См. также: Paul Overberg and Jon Kamp, «U. S. Deaths Are Up Sharply, Though COVID-19’s Precise Toll Is Murky», Wall Street Journal, May 15, 2020, https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19s-exact-tollismurky-thoughusdeaths-areupsharply-11589555652.
1279
Jeremy Samuel Faust and Carlos del Rio, «Assessment of Deaths from COVID-19 and from Seasonal Influenza», JAMA Internal Medicine 180, no. 8 (May 14, 2020), pp. 1045–1046, https://doi.org/10.1001/jamainternmed.2020.2306.
1280
Robin Martin, «COVID vs. U. S. Daily Average Cause of Death», Flourish, April 21, 2020, https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1712761/.
1281
Steven H. Woolf et al., «Excess Deaths from COVID-19 and Other Causes, March – April 2020», JAMA 324, no. 5 (July 1, 2020), pp. 510–513, https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.11787.
1282
Claudio Cancelli and Luca Foresti, «The Real Death Toll for COVID-19 Is At Least 4 Times the Official Numbers», Corriere della Sera, March 26, 2020, https://www.corriere.it/politica/20_marzo_26/the-real-death-toll-for-covid19isatleast4times-the-official-numbers-b5af0edc-6eeb-11ea-925b-a0c3cdbe1130.shtml.
1283
Centro Nacional de Epidemiología (ISCIII), «Vigilancia de los excesos de mortalidad por todas las causas», April 19, 2020, https://www.isciii.es/QueHacemos/Servicios/VigilanciaSaludPublicaRENAVE/EnfermedadesTransmisibles/MoMo/Documents/informesMoMo2020/MoMo_Situacion%20a%2019 %20de%20abril_CNE.pdf.
1284
Josh Katz and Margot Sanger-Katz, «Deaths in New York City Are More than Double the Usual Total», New York Times, April 10, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/10/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-new-york-city.html.
1285
Josh Kovensky, «How Many People Have Died in NYC During the COVID Pandemic?» Talking Points Memo Muckraker, April 14, 2020, https://talkingpointsmemo.com/muckraker/how-many-people-have-diedinnyc-during-the-covid-pandemic. См. также: «Coronavirus Tracked», Financial Times, and Jin Wu et al., «Missing Deaths.»
1286
«COVID-19 Data and Tools», California State Government, https://public.tableau.com/views/COVID-19CasesDashboard_15931020425010/Cases. О проблемах Южной Калифорнии см.: James Temple, «There’s Not One Reason California’s COVID-19 Cases Are Soaring – There Are Many», MIT Technology Review, June 30, 2020, https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/06/30/1004696/theres-not-one-reason-californias-covid19cases-are-soaring-there-are-many/.
1287
«Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19», CDC National Center for Health Statistics, August 12, 2020, https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm.
1288
«Estudio ENE-COVID-19: Primera ronda: Estudio nacional de sero-epidemiología de la infección por SARS-CoV2 en España: Informe preliminar», Gobierno de España Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación/ Ministerio de Sanidad, May 13, 2020, https://www.ciencia.gob.es/stfls/MICINN/Ministerio/FICHEROS/ENECOVID_Informe_preliminar_cierre_primera_ronda_13Mayo2020.pdf; Travis P. Baggett et al., «COVID-19 Outbreak at a Large Homeless Shelter in Boston: Implications for Universal Testing», MedRxiv, April 15, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.12.20059618; Bill Chappell and Paige Pfleger, «73 % of Inmates at an Ohio Prison Test Positive for Coronavirus», Coronavirus Live Updates, NPR, April 20, 2020, https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/20/838943211/73ofinmatesatanohio-prison-test-positive-for-coronavirus.
1289
Joseph Goldstein, «68 % Have Antibodies in This Clinic. Can a Neighborhood Beat a Next Wave?» New York Times, July 10, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/09/nyregion/nyc-coronavirus-antibodies.html.
1290
Eran Bendavid et al., «COVID-19 Antibody Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California», MedRxiv, April 30, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463.
1291
«COVID-19 in Iceland – Statistics from 15 June 2020», Ministry of Health of Iceland, https://www.covid.is/data; «Estudio ENE-COVID-19: Primera ronda».
1292
Daniel Howdon, Jason Oke, and Carl Heneghan, «Estimating the Infection Fatality Ratio in England», Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine, August 21, 2020, https://www.cebm.net/covid19/estimating-the-infection-fatality-ratioinengland/.
1293
John P. A. Ioannidis, «The Infection Fatality Rate of COVID-19 Inferred from Seroprevalence Data», MedRxiv, July 14, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.13.20101253; «COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios», CDC, July 10, 2020, https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html; Lucy C. Okell et al., «Have Deaths in Europe Plateaued Due to Herd Immunity?» Lancet 395, no. 10241 (June 11, 2020), pp. E110 – E111, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140–6736 (20) 31357X; Smriti Mallapaty, «How Deadly Is the Coronavirus? Scientists Are Close to an Answer», Nature 582 (June 16, 2020), pp. 467–468, https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-020-017382.
1294
Gideon Meyerowitz-Katz and Lea Merone, «A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Published Research Data on COVID-19 Infection-Fatality Rates», MedRxiv, July 7, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1011/2020.05.03.20089854; Brianna Abbott and Jason Douglas, «How Deadly Is COVID-19? Researchers Are Getting Closer to an Answer», Wall Street Journal, July 21, 2020, https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-deadlyiscovid19researchers-are-getting-closertoananswer-11595323801.
1295
Javier Perez-Saez et al., «Serology-Informed Estimates of SARS-CoV2 Infection Fatality Risk in Geneva, Switzerland», OSF Preprints, June 15, 2020, https://doi.org/10.31219/osf.io/wdbpe.
1296
John Burn-Murdoch, «Some Fresh Analysis of the Factors That Do – and Do Not – Appear to Influence the Pace of Countries’ COVID-19 Outbreaks», April 13, 2020, https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1249821596199596034.html. См. также: Okell et al., «Have Deaths in Europe Plateaued?»
1297
T. J. Rodgers, «Do Lockdowns Save Many Lives? In Most Places, the Data Say No», Wall Street Journal, April 26, 2020, https://www.wsj.com/articles/dolockdowns-save-many-livesismost-places-the-data-sayno11587930911. См. также исследование Марко Колановича (Marko Kolanovic), посвященное компании J. P. Morgan.
1298
«Coronavirus Government Response Tracker», Oxford University Blavatnik School of Government, August 6, 2020, https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/research/research-projects/oxford-covid19government-response-tracker; Thomas Hale et al., «Variation in Government Responses to COVID-19», Blavatnik School of Government (BSG) Working Paper Series BSGWP2020/032, Version 6.0 (May 27, 2020), https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/202005/BSGWP2020-032v6.0.pdf.
1299
Elaine He, «The Results of Europe’s Lockdown Experiment Are In», Bloomberg, May 19, 2020, https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-opinion-coronavirus-europe-lockdown-excess-deaths-recession. См. также: James Scruton et al., «GDP First Quarterly Estimate, UK: January to March 2020», UK Office for National Statistics, May 13, 2020, https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/januarytomarch2020; JohannesBorgen (@jeuasommenulle), «Это о. интересно: по сути, компания Oxford Economics создала гигантскую базу данных по карантинным мерам во всем мире, а Национальная статистическая служба Великобритании связала ее с известной статистикой по ВВП», Twitter, May 13, 2020, 2:11 a.m., https://twitter.com/jeuasommenulle/status/1260482683936915456.
1300
Okell et al., «Have Deaths in Europe Plateaued?»
1301
Joseph A. Lewnard and Nathan C. Lo, «Scientific and Ethical Basis for Social-Distancing Interventions Against COVID-19», Lancet Infectious Diseases 20, no. 6 (June 1, 2020), pp. P631-P633, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473–3099 (20) 301900.
1302
Lai Shengjie et al., «Effect of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions for Containing the COVID-19 Outbreak in China», MedRxiv, March 13, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1011/2020.03.03.20029843; Zhang Juanjuan et al., «Changes in Contact Patterns Explain the Dynamics of the COVID-19 Outbreak in China», Science 368, no. 6498 (June 26, 2020), pp. 1481–1486, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abb8001.
1303
Упомянутое исследование приводит ряд мер, которые следовало бы принять под эгидой «иного социального дистанцирования»: «…[1] Изолировать определенные группы населения: рекомендовать или санкционировать изоляцию людей пожилого возраста, людей с ослабленным иммунитетом и тех, кто недавно вернулся из круиза. [2] Добиться того, чтобы вне дома [люди] соблюдали положенную социальную дистанцию: пребывая за пределами своего дома, необходимо оставаться как минимум в шести футах [ок. 1,8 м] от других людей; также следует сохранять дистанцию при поездке на общественном транспорте; предприятиям надлежит ограничить число людей, одновременно находящихся внутри заведений общественного пользования, а также свести к минимуму определенные действия, предполагающие физическое взаимодействие с покупателями (например упаковка продуктов, прием оплаты наличными). [3] Предписать ношение масок: люди должны надевать маску, выходя из дома. [4] Закрыть общественные здания и пространства: библиотеки, музеи, блошиные рынки, исторические достопримечательности, мемориалы и избирательные участки. [5] Закрыть общественные места, расположенные на открытом воздухе: пляжи, национальные и общественные парки, общественные туалеты, озера и кемпинги. [6] Ввести социальное дистанцирование при посещении определенных учреждений: ограничить посещение тюрем, заведений по оказанию долгосрочного ухода, учреждений по уходу за детьми и приютов для бездомных; прекратить плановые медицинские и ветеринарные процедуры и наложить запрет на краткосрочную аренду жилья. [7] Приостановить второстепенные операции в государственном секторе и среди государственных служб: закрыть правительственные здания, прекратить личные встречи государственных служащих, приостановить рассмотрение дел в судах; временно отложить или продлить лицензирование и разрешить выполнение определенных видов работ в удаленном режиме, который в их случае, как правило, недопустим (нотариат, полиция, выдача лицензий)». Даже некоторые из этих ограничений уже были излишними. Закрытие пляжей и парков утратило смысл, когда стало ясно, что вирус почти всегда передается в помещениях. (Прим. авт.)
1304
Solomon Hsiang et al., «The Effect of Large-Scale Anti-Contagion Policies on the COVID-19 Pandemic», Nature 584 (June 8, 2020), pp. 262–267, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-24048.
1305
Amnon Shashua and Shai Shalev-Shwartz, «The Day After COVID-19 Lockdown: Need to Focus on the Vulnerable», Medium, April 27, 2020, https://medium.com/@amnon.shashua/the-day-after-covid19lockdown-needtofocusonthe-vulnerable-42c0a360a27; Alexander Chudik, M. Hashem Pesaran, and Alessandro Rebucci, «Mandated and Targeted Social Isolation Policies Flatten the COVID-19 Curve and Can Help Mitigate the Associated Employment Losses», VoxEU & CEPR, May 2, 2020, https://voxeu.org/article/mandated-targeted-social-isolation-can-flatten-covid19curve-and-mitigate-employment-losses; Alexander Chudik, M. Hashem Pesaran, and Alessandro Rebucci, «Voluntary and Mandatory Social Distancing: Evidence on COVID-19 Exposure Rates from Chinese Provinces and Selected Countries», Carey Business School Research Paper No. 2003, Johns Hopkins University (April 15, 2020), available at SSRN, https://ssrn.com/abstract=3576703. См. также: M. Gabriela Gomes et al., «Individual Variation in Susceptibility or Exposure to SARS-CoV2 Lowers the Herd Immunity Threshold», MedRxiv, May 2, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893.
1306
Greg Ip, «New Thinking on Covid Lockdowns: They’re Overly Blunt and Costly», Wall Street Journal, August 24, 2020, https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-lockdowns-economy-pandemic-recession-business-shutdown-sweden-coronavirus-11598281419.
1307
Flavia Rotondi, Boris Groendahl, and Stefan Nicola, «Europe’s Reopening Road Map: How 11 Countries Are Beginning to Lift Lockdowns», Fortune, May 4, 2020, https://fortune.com/2020/05/04/reopen-economy-europe-italy-spain-france/.
1308
Karin Modig and Marcus Ebeling, «Excess Mortality from COVID-19: Weekly Excess Death Rates by Age and Sex for Sweden», MedRxiv, May 15, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.10.20096909.
1309
«Mobilitätsindikatoren auf Basis von Mobilfunkdaten: Experimentelle Daten», Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis), August 3, 2020, https://www.destatis.de/DE/Service/EXDAT/Datensaetze/mobilitaetsindikatoren-mobilfunkdaten.html.
1310
Alistair Haimes, «It’s Hurting but It’s Just Not Working», The Critic, April 24, 2020, https://thecritic.co.uk/its-hurting-but-its-just-not-working/; Fraser Nelson, «The Threat Has Passed, So Why Are Our Civil Liberties Still Suspended?» Daily Telegraph, June 18, 2020, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/06/18/threat-has-passed-civil-liberties-still-suspended/.
1311
Justin McCarthy, «Americans Differ Greatly in Readiness to Return to Normal», Gallup, April 30, 2020, https://news.gallup.com/poll/309578/americans-differ-greatly-readiness-return-normal.aspx.
1312
Apple Maps, «Mobility Trends Reports», https://www.apple.com/covid19/mobility. О разнице в поведении демократов и республиканцев см., напр.: Marcus Painter and Tian Qiu, «Political Beliefs Affect Compliance with COVID-19 Social Distancing Orders», VoxEU & CEPR, May 11, 2020, https://voxeu.org/article/political-beliefs-and-compliance-social-distancing-orders.
1313
Matthew Cleevely et al., «Stratified Periodic Testing: A Workable Testing Strategy for COVID-19», VoxEU & CEPR, May 6, 2020, https://voxeu.org/article/stratified-periodic-testing-covid19; Edward Luce, «Inside Trump’s Coronavirus Meltdown», Financial Times, May 13, 2020,https://www.ft.com/ content/97dc7de6-940b-11ea-abcd-371e24b679ed;Abbott and Douglas, “How Deadly Is COVID-19?”
1314
Luca Ferretti et al., «Quantifying SARS-CoV2 Transmission Suggests Epidemic Control with Digital Contact Tracing», Science 368, no. 6491 (May 8, 2020), https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abb6936; https://hbr.org/2020/04/how-digital-contact-tracing-slowed-covid19ineast-asia; Huang Yasheng, Sun Meicen, and Sui Yuze, «How Digital Contact Tracing Slowed COVID-19 in East Asia», Harvard Business Review, April 15, 2020, https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1890; Sharon Otterman, «N. Y. C. Hired 3,000 Workers for Contact Tracing. It’s Off to a Slow Start», New York Times, June 21, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/21/nyregion/nyc-contact-tracing.html; I. Glenn Cohen, Lawrence O. Gostin, and Daniel J. Weitzner, «Digital Smartphone Tracking for COVID-19: Public Health and Civil Liberties in Tension», JAMA 323, no. 23 (May 27, 2020), pp. 2371–2372, https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2766675; Swathikan Chidambaram et al., «Observational Study of UK Mobile Health Apps for COVID-19», Lancet Digital Health 2 (June 24, 2020), pp. E388 – E390, https://doi.org/10.1016/S2589–7500 (20) 301448.
1315
Tomas Pueyo, «Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance», Medium, March 19, 2020, https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56.
1316
Derek Watkins et al., «How the Virus Won», New York Times, June 25, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-spread.html.
1317
John H. Cochrane, «Dumb Reopening Just Might Work», The Grumpy Economist (blog), May 4, 2020, https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2020/05/dumb-reopening-might-just-work.html; John H. Cochrane, «An SIR Model with Behavior», The Grumpy Economist (blog), May 4, 2020, https://johnhco chrane.blogspot.com/2020/05/ansir-model-with-behavior.html.
1318
Austan Goolsbee and Chad Syverson, «Fear, Lockdown, and Diversion: Comparing Drivers of Pandemic Economic Decline 2020», NBER Working Paper No. 27432 (June 2020), https://doi.org/10.3386/w27432.
1319
Chetan Ahya, «The Coronavirus Recession: Sharper but Shorter», Morgan Stanley Ideas, May 12, 2020, https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/coronavirus-impactonglobal-growth; Gavyn Davies, «After Lockdowns, Economic Sunlight or a Long Hard Slog?» Financial Times, May 3, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/f2b79b3a-8ae5-11ea-9dcb-fe6871f4145a.
1320
Gita Gopinath, «The Great Lockdown: Worst Economic Downturn Since the Great Depression», IMFBlog, April 14, 2020, https://blogs.imf.org/2020/04/14/the-great-lockdown-worst-economic-downturn-since-the-great-depression/; Gita Gopinath, «Reopening From the Great Lockdown: Uneven and Uncertain Recovery», IMFBlog, June 24, 2020, https://blogs.imf.org/2020/06/24/reopening-from-the-great-lockdown-uneven-and-uncertain-recovery/; James Politi, «Emerging Economies Forecast to Shrink for First Time in 60 Years», Financial Times, June 8, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/47998ee3-b2d3-4066-a914-edbf60b797b5; «The World Economy on a Tightrope», OECD Economic Outlook (June 2020), https://www.oecd.org/economic-outlook/.
1321
Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis, Stephen J. Terry, «COVID-Induced Economic Uncertainty», NBER Working Paper No. 26983 (April 2020), https://www.nber.org/papers/w26983.
1322
«Real-Time Data: The State of Hourly Work at U. S. Small Businesses», Homebase, https://joinhome base.com/data/covid19; Laura Noonan, ‘«Where Is My Loan?’ Small Businesses Miss Out on U. S. Rescue Funds», Financial Times, April 20, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/e6a06f94-5d2f-43a0–8aac-c7adddca0b0e; Neil Barofsky, «Why the Small-Business Bailout Went to the Big Guys», Bloomberg, April 30, 2020, https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/20200430/why-small-business-bailout-wenttoshake-shack-and-ruthschris.
1323
Paul Krugman, «Notes on the Coronacoma (Wonkish)», New York Times, April 1, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/opinion/notesonthe-coronacoma-wonkish.html; См. также: Noah Smith, «Paul Krugman Is Pretty Upbeat About the Economy», Bloomberg, May 27, 2020, https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/20200527/paul-krugmanispretty-upbeat-about-coronavirus-economic-recovery.
1324
Kenneth Rogoff, «Mapping the COVID-19 Recession», Project Syndicate, April 7, 2020, https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/mapping-covid19-global-recession-worstin150-yearsbykenneth-rogoff-202004.
1325
«Fed Injection Postponing Economic Problems, Not Solving: Summers», Bloomberg, April 9, 2020, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/20200410/fed-injection-postponing-economic-problems-not-solving-summers-video.
1326
John Cochrane, «Whack-a-Mole: The Long Run Virus», The Grumpy Economist (blog), April 4, 2020, https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2020/04/whack-mole-long-run-virus.html.
1327
Enda Curran and Hong Jinshan, «Chinese Factories Humming Doesn’t Mean Anyone Is Buying», Bloomberg, May 30, 2020, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/20200530/chinese-factories-humming-doesntmean-anyoneisbuying.
1328
U. S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, «Personal Saving Rate [PSAVERT]», retrieved from FRED: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVERT.
1329
Greg Ip, «Signs of a V-Shaped Early-Stage Economic Recovery Emerge», Wall Street Journal, June 13, 2020, https://www.wsj.com/articles/signsofavshaped-early-stage-economic-recovery-emerge-11592040600.
1330
Jennifer Calfas, Brianna Abbott, and Andrew Restuccia, «Texas Pauses Reopening, as CDC Says Millions More May Have Had Coronavirus», Wall Street Journal, June 25, 2020, https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-latest-news06252020-11593070962; Greg Ip, «A Recovery That Started Out Like a V Is Changing Shape», Wall Street Journal, July 1, 2020, https://www.wsj.com/articles/areverse-square-root-recovery-11593602775.
1331
«TSA Checkpoint Travel Numbers for 2020 and 2019», U. S. Transportation Security Administration, https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput.
1332
SafeGraph, «The Impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) on Foot Traffic», August 17, 2020, https://www.safegraph.com/dashboard/covid19-commerce-patterns.
1333
Apple Maps «Mobility Trends Reports»; TomTom, «San Francisco Traffic», https://www.tomtom.com/en_gb/traffic-index/san-francisco-traffic/.
1334
Raj Chetty et al., «Opportunity Insights Economic Tracker», https://tracktherecovery.org/; Emily Badger and Alicia Parlapiano, «The Rich Cut Their Spending. That Has Hurt All the Workers Who Count on It», New York Times, June 17, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/17/upshot/coronavirus-spending-rich-poor.html; Ip, «Recovery That Started Out Like a V.»
1335
«Impact of COVID-19 on Electricity Consumption and Particulate Pollution», Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago (EPIC), June 14, 2020, https://epic.uchicago.edu/areaoffocus/covid19/.
1336
Gavyn Davies, «Big Data Suggests a Difficult Recovery in U. S. Jobs Market», Financial Times, July 5, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/607f24f5-71ed-452c-b68e-716145584e3d.
1337
Alexandre Tanzi, «N. Y. Seen with 40 % Drop in Tax Revenue, Steepest Fall in U. S.», Bloomberg, June 15, 2020, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/20200615/economists-forecastatleast30tax-decline-for10usstates; David Harrison, «Recession Forces Spending Cuts on States, Cities Hit by Coronavirus», Wall Street Journal, July 8, 2020, https://www.wsj.com/articles/recession-forces-spending-cutsonstates-cities-hitbycoronavirus-11594200600.
1338
Gavyn Davies, «Managing COVID Debt Mountains Is a Key Task for the Next Decade», Financial Times, June 7, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/a371909e-a3fe-11ea-92e2-cbd9b7e28ee6; John Cochrane, «Perpetuities, Debt Crises, and Inflation», The Grumpy Economist (blog), June 8, 2020, https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2020/06/perpetuities-debt-crises-and-inflation.html.
1339
Timiraos and Hilsenrath, «Federal Reserve Is Changing What It Means.»
1340
Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan, «Future Imperfect After Coronavirus», VoxEU by CEPR, March 27, 2020, https://voxeu.org/article/future-imperfect-after-coronavirus; Willem Buiter, «Paying for the COVID-19 Pandemic Will Be Painful», Financial Times, May 15, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/d9041f04-9686-11ea-899a-f62a20d54625.
1341
Ryan Banerjee, Aaron Mehrotra, and Fabrizio Zampolli, «Inflation at Risk from COVID-19», BIS Bulletin No. 28 (July 23, 2020), https://www.bis.org/publ/bisbull28.htm.
1342
«News Release: CFS Divisia Monetary Data for the United States», Center for Financial Stability, July 22, 2020, http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm/Divisia_ Jun20.pdf.
1343
Faiola, «Virus That Shut Down the World».
1344
Stephen Roach, «A Crash in the Dollar Is Coming», Bloomberg, June 8, 2020, https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/20200608/acrashinthe-dollariscoming.
1345
Портной заработал на фондовых рынках, следуя двум правилам. Правило № 1: «Акции только растут», как он часто напоминал своим подписчикам в Twitter (их полтора миллиона). Правило № 2: «Если сомневаешься, покупать или продавать, смотри Правило № 1». (Прим. авт.)
1346
Katie Martin, Richard Henderson, and Eric Platt, «Markets: The ‘Retail Bros’ Betting on a Quick Recovery from the Pandemic», Financial Times, June 12, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/dd6c7674-d0ed-4865-82ed-48ee169bc6cc; Richard Henderson, «Zero-Fee Trading Helps Citadel Securities Cash in on Retail Boom», Financial Times, June 21, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/4a439398-88ab-442a-9927-e743a3ff609b.
1347
«Coronavirus: Outbreak Concern», Civiqs. See Christos A. Makridis and Jonathan T. Rothwell, «The Real Cost of Political Polarization: Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic», June 29, 2020, available at SSRN, https://ssrn.com/abstract=3638373.
1348
«President Trump Job Approval», Real Clear Politics, https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html; «General Election: Trump vs. Biden», Real Clear Politics, https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html; «Who Will Win the 2020 U. S. Presidential Election», PredictIt, https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3698/Who-will-win-the-2020USpresidential-election.
1349
Ian Bogost and Alexis C. Madrigal, «How Facebook♦ Works for Trump», Atlantic, April 17, 2020, https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/04/how-facebooksadtechnology-helps-trump-win/606403/.
1350
Sheera Frenkel et al., «Facebook♦ Employees Stage Virtual Walkout to Protest Trump Posts», New York Times, June 1, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/01/technology/facebook-employee-protest-trump.html; Mike Isaac, «Early Facebook♦ Employees Disavow Zuckerberg’s Stance on Trump Posts», New York Times, June 30, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/03/technology/facebook-trump-employees-letter.html; Kayla Gogarty and John Whitehouse, «Facebook♦ Finally Removed Trump Campaign Ads with Inverted Red Triangle – an Infamous Nazi Symbol», Media Matters, June 18, 2020, https://www.mediamatters.org/facebook/facebook-let-trump-campaign-run-ads-inverted-red-triangle-infamous-nazi-symbol; Megan Graham, «The Facebook♦ Ad Boycotts Have Entered the Big Leagues. Now What?» CNBC News, June 29, 2020, https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/27/the-facebookadboycotts-have-entered-the-big-leagues-now-what.html.
1351
Paul Bedard, «Poll: 20 % of Democrats ‘Think Biden Has Dementia,’ 38 % Among All Voters», Washington Examiner, June 29, 2020, https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/poll20ofdemocrats-think-biden-has-dementia38among-all-voters.
1352
Christakis, Apollo’s Arrow, pp. 208–213.
1353
George Packer, «We Are Living in a Failed State», Atlantic (June 2020), https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/06/underlying-conditions/610261/.
1354
«Remarks by President Trump, Vice President Pence, and Members of the Coronavirus Task Force in Press Briefing», March 18, 2020, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-vice-president-pence-members-coronavirus-task-force-press-briefing5/.
1355
«Domestic Violence Has Increased During Coronavirus Lockdowns», Economist, April 22, 2020, https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/22/domestic-violence-has-increased-during-coronavirus-lockdowns?fsrc=scn/tw/te/bl/ed/dailychartdomesticviolencehasincreasedduringcoronaviruslockdownsgraphicdetail; Ryan Heath and Renuka Rayasam, «COVID’s War on Women», Politico, April 29, 2020, https://www.politico.com/newsletters/politico-nightly-coronavirus-special-edition/2020/04/29/covids-waronwomen-489076; Amanda Taub and Jane Bradley, «As Domestic Abuse Rises, U. K. Failings Leave Victims in Peril», New York Times, July 2, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/02/world/europe/ukcoronavirus-domestic-abuse.html.
1356
Giuliana Viglione, «How Many People Has the Coronavirus Killed?» Nature 585 (September 1, 2020), pp. 22–24, https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02497w.
1357
Shi Le et al., «Prevalence of and Risk Factors Associated with Mental Health Symptoms Among the General Population in China During the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic», JAMA Network Open 3, no. 7 (July 1, 2020), https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.14053; Sun Yan et al., «Brief Report: Increased Addictive Internet and Substance Use Behavior During the COVID-19 Pandemic in China», American Journal on Addictions 29, no. 4 (June 4, 2020), pp. 268-70, https://doi.org/10.1111/ajad.13066.
1358
William Wan and Heather Long, «‘Cries for Help’: Drug Overdoses Are Soaring During the Coronavirus Pandemic», https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/07/01/coronavirus-drug-overdose/.
1359
Michael Holden, «COVID-19 Death Rate in Deprived Areas in England Double That of Better-Off Places: ONS», Reuters, May 1, 2020, https://www.reuters.com/article/ushealth-coronavirus-britain-deprived-idUSKBN22D51O; Rishi K. Wadhera et al., «Variation in COVID-19 Hospitalizations and Deaths Across New York City Boroughs», JAMA 323, no. 21 (April 29, 2020), pp. 2192–2195, https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.7197.
1360
Robert Armemphasis, «Rising Markets and Inequality Grow from the Same Root», Financial Times, June 8, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/a25bf8b6-a962-11ea-a766-7c300513fe47.
1361
Megan Cassella, «Mounting Unemployment Crisis Fuels Racial Wealth Gap», Politico, June 5, 2020, https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/04/unemployment-race-gap-301984.
1362
Sean Illing, «Millennials Are Getting Screwed by the Economy. Again», Vox, April 21, 2020, https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/4/21/21221273/coronavirus-millennials-great-recession-annie-lowrey.
1363
Sarah Chaney, «Women’s Job Losses from Pandemic Aren’t Good for Economic Recovery», Wall Street Journal, June 21, 2020, https://www.wsj.com/articles/womens-job-losses-from-pandemic-arent-good-for-economic-recovery-11592745164.
1364
Tim Arango et al., «Fiery Clashes Erupt Between Police and Protesters over George Floyd Death», New York Times, June 10, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/30/us/minneapolis-floyd-protests.html.
1365
Larry Buchanan, Quoctrung Bui, and Jugal K. Patel, «Black Lives Matter May Be the Largest Movement in U. S. History», New York Times, July 3, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html.
1366
Dhaval M. Dave et al., «Black Lives Matter Protests, Social Distancing, and COVID-19», NBER Working Paper No. 27408 (June 2020), https://doi.org/10.3386/w27408.
1367
Roudabeh Kishi and Sam Jones, «Demonstrations and Political Violence in America: New Data for Summer 2020», Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), September 2020, https://acleddata.com/2020/09/03/demonstrations-political-violenceinamerica-new-data-for-summer-2020/.
1368
Maggie Haberman, «Trump Threatens White House Protesters with ‘Vicious Dogs’ and ‘Ominous Weapons,’» New York Times, May 30, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/30/us/politics/trump-threatens-protesters-dogs-weapons.html; Neil MacFarquhar, «Many Claim Extremists Are Sparking Protest Violence. But Which Extremists?» New York Times, June 22, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/31/us/george-floyd-protests-white-supremacists-antifa.html.
1369
Jan Ransom and Annie Correal, «How the New York Protest Leaders Are Taking On the Establishment», New York Times, June 12, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/11/nyregion/nyc-george-floyd-protests.html.
1370
Heather Mac Donald, «Darkness Falls: The Collapse of the Rule of Law Across the Country, Intensified by Antifa Radicals, Is Terrifying», City Journal, May 31, 2020, https://www.city-journal.org/terrifying-collapseofthe-ruleoflaw.
1371
James Rainey, Dakota Smith, and Cindy Chang, «Growing the LAPD Was Gospel at City Hall. George Floyd Changed That», Los Angeles Times, June 5, 2020, https://www.latimes.com/california/story/20200605/eric-garcetti-lapd-budget-cuts-10000-officers-protests.
1372
Dave et al., «Black Lives Matter Protests, Social Distancing, and COVID-19.»
1373
Ashley Southall and Neil MacFarquhar, «Gun Violence Spikes in N. Y. C., Intensifying Debate over Policing», New York Times, July 17, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/23/nyregion/nyc-shootings-surge.html.
1374
Omar Wasow, «Agenda Seeding: How 1960s Black Protests Moved Elites, Public Opinion and Voting», forthcoming submission to the Ame rican Political Science Review (2020), http://omarwasow.com/APSR_protests3_1.pdf.
1375
Nexstar Media Wire, «Exclusive Poll Shows Support for George Floyd Protests, Disapproval of Trump’s Response», KXAN News, June 3, 2020, https://www.kxan.com/news/exclusive-poll-shows-support-for-george-floyd-protests-disapprovaloftrumps-response/.
1376
Nate Cohn and Kevin Quealy, «How Public Opinion Has Moved on Black Lives Matter», New York Times, June 10, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/10/upshot/black-lives-matter-attitudes.html; Amy Mitchell et al., «In Protest Response, Americans Say Donald Trump’s Message Has Been Wrong, News Media Coverage Good», Pew Research Center, June 12, 2020, https://www.journalism.org/2020/06/12/inprotest-response-americans-say-donald-trumps-message-has-been-wrong-news-media-coverage-good/.
1377
Mark Joyella, «Tucker Carlson Has Highest-Rated Program in Cable News History», Forbes, June 30, 2020, https://www.forbes.com/sites/markjoyella/2020/06/30/tucker-carlson-has-highest-rated-programincable-news-history/#61b7e0056195.
1378
Theresa Braine, «White Cops and Community Members Wash Black Faith Leaders’ Feet at Protest», New York Daily News, June 9, 2020, https://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/nywhite-cops-community-wash-black-faith-leaders-feet-forgiveness-20200609-yl4gmoau4nclvgndlldgeqlj3y-story.html.
1379
Maria Viti (@selfdeclaredref), «Bethesda», Twitter, June 2, 2020, 2:11 p.m., https://twitter.com/selfdeclaredref/status/1267911752462843904.
1380
Shaggie (@Shaggie_Tweets), «Мощная демонстрация единства и поддержки», Twitter, May 31, 2020, 7:53 p.m., https://twitter.com/shaggie_tweets/status/1267273066461007872.
1381
Достойный комментарий об «Антирасизме третьей волны», см.: John McWhorter, «Kneeling in the Church of Social Justice», Reason, June 29, 2020, https://reason.com/2020/06/29/kneelinginthe-churchofsocial-justice/.
1382
Dominick Mastrangelo, ‘«Systemically, Racism Can Only Be White’: Demonstrator Confronts Police in DC», Washington Examiner, June 25, 2020, https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/systemically-racism-can-onlybewhite-demonstrator-confronts-policeindc.
1383
Hannah Natanson et al., «Protesters Denounce Abraham Lincoln Statue in D. C., Urge Removal of Emancipation Memorial», Washington Post, June 26, 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/protesters-denounce-abraham-lincoln-statueindcurge-removalofemancipation-memorial/2020/06/25/02646910-b704-11ea-a510-55bf26485c93_story.html.
1384
James Simpson, Under the Hammer: Iconoclasm in the Anglo-American Tradition (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2010).
1385
Hanna Lustig, «Teens on TikTok Are Exposing a Generational Rift Between Parents and Kids over How They Treat Black Lives Matter Protests», Insider, June 3, 2020, https://www.insider.com/tiktok-george-floyd-black-lives-matter-teens-parents-racist-views-20206.
1386
Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers), «Этот чикагский экономист раздражил многих своих коллег», Twitter, June 9, 2020, 2:05 p.m, https://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/1270446931668500480.
1387
«Most Want to Prosecute Historic Statue Vandals», Rasmussen Reports, July 9, 2020, https://www.ras mussenreports.com/public_content/politics/current_events/racism/most_want_to_prosecute_historic_statue_vandals.
1388
Federal Bureau of Investigation, «NICS Firearms Checks: Month/Year», https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/nics_firearm_checks_-_month_year.pdf/view.
1389
Nate Cohn and Kevin Quealy, «Nothing Divides Voters Like Owning a Gun», New York Times, October 5, 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/10/05/upshot/gun-ownership-partisan-divide.html.
1390
Julia P. Schleimer et al., «Firearm Purchasing and Firearm Violence in the First Months of the Coronavirus Pandemic in the United States», MedRxiv, July 4, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1011/2020.07.02.20145508.
1391
Larry Diamond and Edward B. Foley, «The Terrifying Inadequacy of American Election Law», Atlantic, September 8, 2020, https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/09/terrifying-inadequacy-american-election-law/616072/.
1392
Dan Balz and Emily Guskin, «Biden Leads Trump in Post-ABC Poll as President’s Coronavirus Rating Slips», Washington Post, May 30, 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-leads-trumpinpost-abc-pollaspresidents-coronavirus-rating-slips/2020/05/29/37c0dac8-a1d1-11ea-9590–1858a893bd59_story.html; «Two-Thirds of Americans Expect Presidential Election Will Be Disrupted by COVID-19», Pew Research Center, April 28, 2020, https://www.people-press.org/2020/04/28/two-thirdsofamericans-expect-presidential-election-willbedisruptedbycovid19/.
1393
Xu Shunqing and Li Yuanyuan, «Beware the Second Wave of COVID-19», Lancet 395, no. 10233 (April 25, 2020), pp. P1321 – P1322, https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140–6736 (20)30845X/fulltext. См. также: Lena H. Sun, «CDC Director Warns Second Wave of Coronavirus Is Likely to Be Even More Devastating», Washington Post, April 21, 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/21/coronavirus-secondwave-cdcdirector/.
1394
Accominotti and Chambers, «If You’re So Smart.»
1395
Лю Цысинь. Темный лес / Пер. Д. Накамуры. М., 2020.
1396
Liu Cixin, The Three-Body Problem, trans. Ken Liu (New York: Tor Books, 2014).
1397
Niall Ferguson, «Donald Trump’s Trade War Is Now a Tech War», Sunday Times, February 3, 2019, http://www.niallferguson.com/journalism/politics/donald-trumps-trade-warisnowatech-world-war.
1398
Andrew Browne, «Foothills of a Cold War», Bloomberg, November 21, 2020, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/20191121/-foothillsofacold-war.
1399
Yao Yang, «Is a New Cold War Coming?» (interview), Beijing Cultural Review, April 28, 2020, available at Reading the China Dream, https://www.readingthechinadream.com/yao-yang-the-new-cold-war.html.
1400
Orville Schell, «The Death of Engagement», The Wire China, June 7, 2020, https://www.thewirechina.com/2020/06/07/the-birth-life-and-deathofengagement/.
1401
John Garrnaut, «Ideology in Xi Jinping’s China», Sinocism Newsletter, January 16, 2020; https://sinocism.com/p/engineersofthe-soul-ideologyin.
1402
Dan Blumenthal and Nicholas Eberstadt, «China Unquarantined», National Review, June 4, 2020, https://www.nationalreview.com/magazine/2020/06/22/our-disastrous-engagementofchina/#slide1.
1403
Katsuji Nakazawa, «Xi Fears Japan-Led Manufacturing Exodus from China», Nikkei Asian Review, April 16, 2020, https://asia.nikkei.com/EditorsPicks/Chinaupclose/Xifears-Japan-led-manufacturing-exodus-from-China.
1404
Dave Lawlor, «Josh Hawley Crafts the Case against China», Axios, May 20, 2020, https://www.axios.com/josh-hawley-china-policy-f9e1fc01-2883-4db7-a721-fbb3f7aeacb8.html.
1405
Steven Erlanger, «Global Backlash Builds Against China over Coronavirus», New York Times, May 3, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/03/world/europe/backlash-china-coronavirus.html.
1406
Yu Yongding and Kevin P. Gallagher, «COVID-19 and the Thucydides Trap», Project Syndicate, April 24, 2020, https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/covid-thucydides-trapbyyuyongding-and-kevinpgallagher-202004.
1407
Robert B. Zoellick, «The U. S. Doesn’t Need a New Cold War», Wall Street Journal, May 18, 2020, https://www.wsj.com/articles/theusdoesnt-needanew-cold-war-11589842987.
1408
Niall Ferguson and Moritz Schularick, «Chimerical? Think Again», Wall Street Journal, February 5, 2007, https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB117063838651997830.
1409
«China Opens $ 45 Trillion Financial Market as U. S. Closes», People’s Daily, June 15, 2020, http://en.people.cn/n3/2020/0615/c90000-9700486.html.
1410
Kat Devlin, Laura Silver, and Christine Huang, «U. S. Views of China Increasingly Negative amid Coronavirus Outbreak», Pew Research Center, April 21, 2020, https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2020/04/21/usviewsofchina-increasingly-negative-amid-coronavirus-outbreak/; Craig Kafura, «Are Millennials China Doves or China Hawks?» Chicago Council on Foreign Affairs, April 7, 2020, https://www.thechicagocouncil.org/blog/running-numbers/lcc/are-millennials-china-dovesorchina-hawks.
1411
Laura Silver, Kat Devlin, and Christine Huang, «Americans Fault China for Its Role in the Spread of COVID-19», Pew Research Center, July 30, 2020, https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2020/07/30/americans-fault-china-for-its-roleinthe-spreadofcovid19/.
1412
Болтон Джон – советник президента США по национальной безопасности с 9 апреля 2018 года по 10 сентября 2019 года.
1413
John Bolton, The Room Where It Happened (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2020), quoted in «John Bolton: The Scandal of Trump’s China Policy», Wall Street Journal, June 17, 2020, https://www.wsj.com/articles/john-bolton-the-scandaloftrumps-china-policy-11592419564.
1414
«Маньчжурский кандидат» – политический триллер Джона Франкенхаймера 1962 года об управлении чужим сознанием и волей.
1415
«Chaguan», «Elites in Beijing See America in Decline, Hastened by Trump», Economist, June 11, 2020, https://www.economist.com/china/2020/06/11/elitesinbeijing-see-americaindecline-hastenedbytrump.
1416
Michèle A. Flournoy, «How to Prevent a War in Asia», Foreign Affairs, June 18, 2020, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/20200618/how-prevent-war-asia.
1417
Christian Brose, The Kill Chain: Defending America in the Future of High-Tech Warfare (New York: Hachette, 2020).
1418
Bernhard Zand, «Kishore Mahbubani: ‘There Are Better Ways to Deal with Asia and China,’» Der Spiegel, April 8, 2020, https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/political-scientist-kishore-mahbubanionthe-asian-centurya79680d54–17be-4dd2-bc8c-796101581f31.
1419
Kishore Mahbubani, «Kishore Mahbubani on the Dawn of the Asian Century», Economist, April 20, 2020, https://www.economist.com/open-future/2020/04/20/byinvitation-kishore-mahbubani.
1420
Martin Jacques, When China Rules the World: The End of the Western World and the Birth of a New Global Order, 2nd ed. (London: Penguin, 2012).
1421
Daniel Bell, The China Model: Political Meritocracy and the Limits of Democracy (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2016).
1422
См., напр.: «Pro-People Policies, Dutiful Citizens Effective in China’s COVID-19 Fight» (interview with Daniel Bell), Global Times, May 2, 2020, https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1187304.shtml.
1423
Edward Luce, «Inside Trump’s Coronavirus Meltdown», Financial Times, May 13, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/97dc7de6-940b-11ea-abcd-371e24b679ed.
1424
John Micklethwait and Adrian Wooldridge, «The Virus Should Wake Up the West», Bloomberg, April 13, 2020, https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/20200413/coronavirus-pandemiciswakeupcalltoreinvent-the-state.
1425
Lawrence Summers, «COVID-19 Looks Like a Hinge in History», Financial Times, May 14, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/de643ae8-9527-11ea-899a-f62a20d54625.
1426
Patrick Wintour, «Coronavirus: Who Will Be Winners and Losers in New World Order», Guardian, April 11, 2020, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/11/coronavirus-who-willbewinners-and-losersinnew-world-order.
1427
Anne Applebaum, «The Rest of the World Is Laughing at Trump», Atlantic, May 3, 2020, https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/05/time-americans-are-doing-nothing/611056/.
1428
Harold James, «Late Soviet America», Project Syndicate, July 1, 2020, https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/american-decline-under-trump-lessons-from-soviet-unionbyharold-james-202007.
1429
Wade Davis, «The Unraveling of America», Rolling Stone, August 6, 2020, https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/political-commentary/covid19endofamerican-era-wade-davis-1038206/
1430
Gideon Rachman, «Coronavirus and the Threat to U. S. Supremacy», Financial Times, April 13, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/2e8c8f76-7cbd-11ea-8fdb-7ec06edeef84; Joseph S. Nye Jr., «Coronavirus Will Not Change the Global Order», Foreign Policy, April 16, 2020, https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/16/coronavirus-pandemic-china-united-states-power-competition/.
1431
Richard Haass, «The Pandemic Will Accelerate History Rather Than Reshape It», Foreign Affairs, April 7, 2020, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/20200407/pandemic-will-accelerate-history-rather-reshapeit.
1432
Ray Dalio, The Changing World Order: Where We Are and Where We’re Going (New York: Avid Reader Press: forthcoming), https://www.principles.com/the-changing-world-order/.
1433
Peter Turchin, «Dynamics of Political Instability in the United States, 1780–2010», Journal of Peace Research 49, no. 4 (2012). См. также: Peter Turchin, Ages of Discord: A Structural-Demographic Analysis of American History (Chaplin, CT: Beresta Books, 2016), esp. 241f.
1434
David Mamet, «The Code and the Key», National Review, June 1, 2020, https://www.nationalreview.com/magazine/2020/06/01/the-code-and-the-key/.
1435
Henry A. Kissinger, «The Coronavirus Pandemic Will Forever Alter the World Order», Wall Street Journal, April 3, 2020, https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-coronavirus-pandemic-will-forever-alter-the-world-order-11585953005.
1436
Jon Meacham, Destiny and Power: The American Odyssey of George Herbert Walker Bush (New York: Random House, 2015), p. 60.
1437
Niall Ferguson, Colossus: The Rise and Fall of the American Empire (New York: Penguin, 2004), pp. 148f., 339f.
1438
Brendan Simms, Unfinest Hour: Britain and the Destruction of Bosnia (London: Allen Lane, 2001), p. 56.
1439
Яркий отчет см.: George Packer, Our Man: Richard Holbrooke and the End of the American Century (New York: Knopf Doubleday, 2019).
1440
«Bosnia War Dead Figure Announced», BBC, June 21, 2007, со ссылкой на источник: Research and Documentation Center in Sarajevo, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6228152.stm.
1441
Samantha Power, «A Problem from Hell»: America and the Age of Genocide (London: HarperCollins, 2003), p. 381. См. также: William Shawcross, Deliver Us from Evil: Warlords and Peacekeepers in a World of Endless Conflict (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2000).
1442
Richard A. Clarke, Against All Enemies: Inside America’s War on Terror-What Really Happened (New York: Free Press, 2004), p. 232. См. также: pp. 28–32, pp. 227ff.
1443
Ron Suskind, The One Percent Doctrine (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2008).
1444
Рон Саскинд, со ссылкой на «старшего советника» президента Буша: «Without a Doubt: Faith, Certainty and the Presidency of George W. Bush», New York Times Magazine, October 17, 2004, https://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/17/magazine/faith-certainty-and-the-presidencyofgeorgewbush.html.
1445
Timothy Garton Ash, Free World: America, Europe, and the Surprising Future of the West (New York: Knopf Doubleday, 2005), p. 102.
1446
«Text of President Bush’s Press Conference», New York Times, April 13, 2004.
1447
Kathleen T. Rhem, «U. S. Not Interested in Iraqi Oil, Rumsfeld Tells Arab World», American Forces Press Service, February 26, 2003, https://archive.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=29374.
1448
«Immediate Release: Casualty Status», U. S. Department of Defense, August 17, 2020, https://www.defense.gov/casualty.pdf.
1449
«The Public Record of Violent Deaths Following the 2003 Invasion of Iraq», Iraq Body Count, accessed August 16, 2020, https://www.iraqbodycount.org/.
1450
«Costs of War: Afghan Civilians», Watson Institute of International and Public Affairs, Brown University (January 2020): https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/costs/human/civilians/afghan.
1451
Neta C. Crawford, «United States Budgetary Costs and Obligations of Post-9/11 Wars Through FY2020: $ 6.4 Trillion», Watson Institute, Brown University, November 13, 2019,https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/files/cow/imce/papers/2019/US%20Budgetary%2 °Costs%20of%20Wars%20November%202019.pdf.
1452
Niall Ferguson, «Applying History in Real Time: A Tale of Two Crises», Impact of the Past lecture series, Institute of Advanced Study, Princeton, NJ, October 10, 2018.
1453
«DoD News Briefing – Secretary Rumsfeld and Gen. Myers», U. S. Department of Defense Online Archive, February 12, 2002, https://archive.defense.gov/Transcripts/Transcript.aspx?TranscriptID=2636.
1454
J. Luft and H. Ingham, «The Johari Window, a Graphic Model of Interpersonal Awareness», Proceedings of the Western Training Laboratory in Group Development (1955).
1455
Donald Rumsfeld, Known and Unknown: A Memoir (New York: Penguin, 2011), p. xvi. On the utility of the distinctions in the natural sciences, see David C. Logan, «Known Knowns, Known Unknowns, Unknown Unknowns and the Propagation of Scientific Enquiry», Journal of Experimental Botany 60, no. 3 (2009), pp. 712–714, https://doi.org/10.1093/jxb/erp043.
1456
Sam Loughlin, «Rumsfeld on Looting in Iraq: ‘Stuff Happens,’» CNN, April 23, 2003, https://www.cnn.com/2003/US/04/11/sprj.irq.pentagon/.
1457
David Corn, «McCain in NH: Would Be ‘Fine’ to Keep Troops in Iraq for ‘A Hundred Years,’» Mother Jones, January 4, 2008, https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2008/01/mccainnhwouldbefine-keep-troops-iraq-hundred-years/.
1458
«America Is Not the World’s Policeman: Text of Barack Obama’s Speech on Syria», Associated Press, September 11, 2013, https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/americaisnot-the-worlds-policeman-textofbarack-obamas-speechonsyria-534239.
1459
Jeffrey Goldberg, «The Obama Doctrine», Atlantic, April 2016, https://www.theatlantic.com/maga zine/archive/2016/04/the-obama-doctrine/471525/.
1460
«Death Tolls», I Am Syria, accessed August 16, 2020, http://www.iamsyria.org/death-tolls.html.
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«Refugee Statistics: Global Trends at-a-Glance», United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, accessed August 16, 2020, https://www.unrefugees.org/refugee-facts/statistics/.
1462
Niall Ferguson, «Barack Obama’s Revolution in Foreign Policy», Atlantic, March 13, 2016, https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/03/obama-doctrine-revolution/473481/.
1463
Arthur Delaney, «Obama Dings Romney on Russia Remark: The 1980s Are Going to Ask for Their Foreign Policy Back», Huffington Post, October 22, 2012, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/22/obama-romney-russia_n_2003927.html.
1464
David Remnick, «Going the Distance», New Yorker, January 27, 2014, https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2014/01/27/going-the-distance-david-remnick.
1465
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, «Share of Total Net Worth Held by the Top 1 % (99th to 100th Wealth Percentiles)», retrieved from FRED: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WFRBST01134.
1466
Anne Case and Angus Deaton, «Rising Morbidity and Mortality in Midlife Among White Non-Hispanic Americans in the 21st Century», PNAS 112, no. 49 (December 8, 2015), www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1518393112; Anne Case and Angus Deaton, «Mortality and Morbidity in the 21st Century», Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Spring 2017, pp. 397–476.
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CDC Wonder, «Overdose Death Rates Involving Opioids, by Type, United States, 1999–2018», CDC, 2020, https://www.cdc.gov/drugoverdose/images/data/2018-Opioid-DeathsByTypeUS.png.
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Holly Hedegaard, Margaret Warner, and Arialdi M. Miniño, «Drug Overdose Deaths in the United States, 1999–2016», NCHS Data Brief No. 294 (December 2017). См. также: Rose A. Rudd et al., «Increases in Drug and Opioid-Involved Overdose Deaths – United States, 2010–2015», Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report 65 (2016), pp. 1445–1452, http://dx.doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm655051e1. Для сравнения с 1918–1919 годами, см.: Christakis, Apollo’s Arrow, fig. 16.
1469
Bryce Pardo, «Evolution of the U. S. Overdose Crisis: Understanding China’s Role in the Production and Supply of Synthetic Opioids», доклад, представленный подкомитету Палаты представителей по Африке, глобальному здравоохранению, правам человека и международным организациям, September 6, 2018, RAND Corporation, https://www.rand.org/pubs/testimonies/CT497.html.
1470
Katie Reilly, «Hillary Clinton’s ‘Basket of Deplorables’ Remarks About Donald Trump Supporters», Time, September 10, 2016, https://time.com/4486502/hillary-clinton-basketofdeplorables-transcript/.
1471
Dana R. Fisher et al. «The Science of Contemporary Street Protest: New Efforts in the United States», Science Advances 5, no. 1 (October 23, 2019), table 1, https://doi.org.10.1126/sciadv.aaw5461; Dana R. Fisher, American Resistance: From the Women’s March to the Blue Wave (New York: Columbia University Press, 2019).
1472
Michael Lewis, The Fifth Risk (New York: W. W. Norton, 2018).
1473
Niall Ferguson, «Europe’s ‘Hamilton Moment’ Is a Flop. That’s Fine», Bloomberg, July 19, 2020, https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/20200719/coronavirus-and-the-economy-europeshamilton-momentisaflop.
1474
Kissinger, «The Coronavirus Pandemic Will Forever Alter the World Order.»
1475
White House, National Security Strategy of the United States of America (December 2017), https://www.whitehouse.gov/wpcontent/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final12182017-0905.pdf.
1476
Nadia Schadlow, «The End of American Illusion», Foreign Affairs, September/October 2020, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/americas/20200811/end-american-illusion.
1477
«Central Bank Liquidity Swap Operations», Federal Reserve Bank of New York, accessed August 16, 2020, https://apps.newyorkfed.org/markets/autorates/fxswap.
1478
Robin Wigglesworth, «A Solution to the Looming Debt Crisis in Emerging Markets», Financial Times, May 3, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/b97eb604-4f6b-49bc-b350-3287bbde00c9.
1479
James Kynge and Sun Yu, «China Faces Wave of Calls for Debt Relief on ‘Belt and Road’ Projects», Financial Times, April 30, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/5a3192be-27c6–4fe7-87e7-78d4158bd39b.
1480
Sebastian Horn, Carmen M. Reinhart, and Christoph Trebesch, «China’s Overseas Lending», NBER Working Paper No. 26050 (May 2020), http://papers.nber.org/tmp/15188-w26050.pdf.
1481
Gita Gopinath et al., «Dominant Currency Paradigm», NBER Working Paper No. 22943 (December 2016), https://www.nber.org/papers/w22943.pdf.
1482
Henry M. Paulson Jr., «The Future of the Dollar», Foreign Affairs, May 19, 2020, https://www.for eignaffairs.com/articles/20200519/future-dollar.
1483
John Paul Koning (@jp_koning), «Facebook♦ не представляет реальной угрозы», Twitter, February 6, 2020, 6:56 a.m., https://twitter.com/jp_koning/status/1225418083323568129. See Huw van Steenis, «The New Digital-Payments Race», Project Syndicate, April 21, 2020, https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/central-banks-digital-paymentsbyhuw-van-steenis-202004.
1484
Hiroyuki Nishimura, «China Takes Battle for Cryptocurrency Hegemony to New Stage», Nikkei Asian Review, June 14, 2020, https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Comment/China-takes-battle-for-cryptocurrency-hegemonytonew-stage.
1485
«COVID-19 Treatment and Vaccine Tracker», Milken Institute, August 18, 2020, https://covid-19tracker.milkeninstitute.org/.
1486
Manas Mishra and Shounak Dasgupta, «U. S. Narrows List of Promising COVID1-9 Vaccine Candidates to About 7», Financial Post, June 16, 2020, https://business.financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/usnarrows-listofpromising-covid19vaccine-candidatestoabout72.
1487
Josephine Ma, «Can China Win COVID-19 Vaccine Race with Old School Technology?» South China Morning Post, June 18, 2020, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3089356/can-china-win-covid19vaccine-race-old-school-technology.
1488
Tung Thanh Le et al., «The COVID-19 Vaccine Development Landscape», Nature Reviews Drug Discovery 19 (April 9, 2020), pp. 305–306, https://doi.org/10.1038/d41573-020-000735.
1489
Wee Sui-Lee and Elsie Chen, «China Investigates Latest Vaccine Scandal After Violent Protests», New York Times, January 14, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/14/business/china-vaccine-scandal-protests.html.
1490
Javier C. Hernández, «In China, Vaccine Scandal Infuriates Parents and Tests Government», New York Times, July 23, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/23/world/asia/china-vaccines-scandal-investigation.html.
1491
Jane Parry, «China Sentences Former Drug Regulatory Chief to Death», BMJ 334, no. 7605 (June 9, 2007), p. 1183, https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.39234.428449. DB.
1492
Natalie Liu, «German Decision on Huawei 5G ‘Imminent,’ Says Ambassador», Voice of America News, February 11, 2020, https://www.voanews.com/europe/german-decision-huawei5gimminent-says-ambassador.
1493
Katy Balls and James Forsyth, «The MP Demanding a New Approach to China», Spectator, May 16, 2020, https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/thempdemandinganew-approachtochina; Jonathan Schieber, «UK Government Reverses Course on Huawei’s Involvement in 5G Networks», Tech Crunch, May 23, 2020, https://techcrunch.com/2020/05/23/ukgovernment-reverses-courseonhuaweis-involvementin5gnetworks/; «UK Will Pay Price If It Carries Out Decision to Exclude Huawei: China Daily Editorial», China Daily, May 24, 2020, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202005/24/WS5e ca6650a310a8b241158044.html.
1494
Kathrin Hille, «Huawei Says New U. S. Sanctions Put Its Survival at Stake», Financial Times, May 18, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/3c532149-94b2-4023-82e0-b51190dc2c46.
1495
Michael D. Shear and Miriam Jordan, «Trump Suspends Visas Allowing Hundreds of Thousands of Foreigners to Work in the U. S.», New York Times, July 23, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/22/us/politics/trump-h1b-work-visas.html.
1496
Ishan Banerjee and Matt Sheehan, «America’s Got AI Talent: U. S.’ Big Lead in AI Research Is Built on Importing Researchers», Macro Polo, June 9, 2020, https://macropolo.org/americas-gotaitalentusbig-leadinairesearchisbuiltonimporting-researchers/.
1497
Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne, «China Won’t Win the Race for AI Dominance», Foreign Affairs, June 19, 2020, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/20200619/china-wont-win-raceaidominance.
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Lu Zhenhua, Wang Zili, and Xu Heqian, «China and U. S. to Fight for Tech Primacy, Not War: Tsinghua Expert», Nikkei Asian Review, May 18, 2020, https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Caixin/China-andUStofight-for-tech-primacy-not-war-Tsinghua-expert.
1499
Ariel E. Levite and Lyu Jinghua, «Travails of an Interconnected World: From Pandemics to the Digital Economy», Lawfare (blog), April 30, 2020, https://www.lawfareblog.com/travails-interconnected-world-pandemics-digital-economy.
1500
Brose, Kill Chain.
1501
Michael R. Auslin, «The Sino-American Littoral War of 2025: A Future History», in Asia’s New Geopolitics: Essays on Reshaping the Indo-Pacific (Stanford, CA: Hoover Institution Press, 2020), pp. 185–228.
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Richard Haass, «American Support for Taiwan Must Be Unambiguous», Foreign Affairs, September 2, 2020, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/american-support-taiwan-mustbeunambiguous.
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Brother Mao, «U. S. Punishing Huawei Is a Strategic Trap», Brother Mao’s World (blog), https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/X3rYjXgAdtVxA4CE8_5TWg.
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Grant Newsham, «Can the PLA Get Across the Taiwan Strait?» Asia Times, May 13, 2019, https://asi atimes.com/2019/05/can-the-pla-get-across-the-taiwan-strait/.
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Salvatore Babones, «Boris Johnson’s Huawei 5G Decision Is a Massive Mistake», National Interest, January 28, 2020, https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/boris-johnsons-huawei5gdecision-massive-mistake-118016.
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Graham Allison, «Could Donald Trump’s War Against Huawei Trigger a Real War with China?» National Interest, June 11, 2020, https://nationalinterest.org/feature/could-donald-trump%E2 %80 %99s-war-against-huawei-trigger-real-war-china-162565.
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Steve Blank, «The Chip Wars of the Twenty-First Century», War on the Rocks, June 11, 2020, https://warontherocks.com/2020/06/the-chip-warsofthe-21st-century/.
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Jenny Leonard, «Lighthizer Says He Feels ‘Very Good’ About Phase One China Deal», Bloomberg, June 4, 2020, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/20200604/lighthizer-sayshefeels-very-good-about-phase-one-china-deal-kb16qm1v; «China Halts Some U. S. Farm Imports, Threatening Trade Deal», Bloomberg, June 1, 2020, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/20200601/china-halts-someusfarm-imports-threatening-trade-deal.
1509
«Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Zhao Lijian’s Remarks on Yang Jiechi’s Meeting with U. S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo», Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China, June 18, 2020, https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/t1789798.shtml.
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Michael R. Pompeo, ‘«Europe and the China Challenge’: Speech at the Virtual Copenhagen Democracy Summit», U. S. Department of State, June 19, 2020, https://www.state.gov/secretary-michaelrpompeoatthe-virtual-copenhagen-democracy-summit.
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M5sParlamento, «Luigi Di Maio ospite a TG2 Post Rai 2 24 03 2020», March 24, 2020, YouTube video, 22:31, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0W7JRf6qaog.
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Philip Wen and Drew Hinshaw, «China Asserts Claim to Global Leadership, Mask by Mask», Wall Street Journal, April 1, 2020, https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-asserts-claimtoglobal-leadership-maskbymask-11585752077.
1513
Mattia Ferraresi, «China Isn’t Helping Italy. It’s Waging Information Warfare», Foreign Policy, March 31, 2020, https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/31/china-isnt-helping-italy-its-waging-information-warfare/.
1514
Alan Crawford and Peter Martin, «China’s Coronavirus Diplomacy Has Finally Pushed Europe Too Far», Taipei Times, April 26, 2020, https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2020/04/26/2003735306.
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Julian Reichelt, ‘«You Are Endangering the World’: BILD Editor-in-Chief Julian Reichelt Responds to the Chinese President Xi Jinping», Bild, April 17, 2020, https://www.bild.de/politik/international/bild-international/bild-chief-editor-responds-to-the-chinese-president-70098436.bild.html. See Joseph de Weck, «China’s COVID-19 Diplomacy Is Backfiring in Europe», Foreign Policy Research Institute, April 21, 2020, https://www.fpri.org/article/2020/04/chinas-covid19diplomacyisbackfiringineurope/.
1516
Stuart Lau, «Chinese Foreign Minister Sees Only Limited Diplomatic Gains from European Trip», South China Morning Post, September 3, 2020, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3100003/chinese-foreign-minister-sees-only-limited-diplomatic-gains.
1517
Laura Silver, Kat Devlin, and Christine Huang, «Unfavorable Views of China Reach Historic Highs in Many Countries», Pew Research Center, October 6, 2020: https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2020/10/06/unfavorable-viewsofchina-reach-historic-highsinmany-countries/.
1518
Joseph de Weck and Dimitris Valatsas, «The European Union Will Survive COVID-19», Foreign Policy Research Institute, April 30, 2020, https://www.fpri.org/article/2020/04/the-european-union-will-survive-covid19/.
1519
Victor Mallet and Roula Khalaf, «Macron Warns of EU Unravelling Unless It Embraces Financial Solidarity», Financial Times, April 16, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/d19dc7a6-c33b-4931-9a7e-4a74674da29a.
1520
«Europe’s Moment: Repair and Prepare for the Next Generation», European Commission Press Corner, May 27, 2020, https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_940.
1521
Guy Chazan, «German Stimulus Aims to Kick-Start Recovery ‘With a Ka-Boom,’» Financial Times, June 4, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/335b5558-41b5–4a1e-a3b9-1440f7602bd8.
1522
Timothy Garton Ash and Antonia Zimmermann, «In Crisis, Europeans Support Radical Positions», Eupinions, May 6, 2020, https://eupinions.eu/de/text/incrisis-europeans-support-radical-positions.
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Ronja Scheler and Joshua Webb, «Keeping an Equidistance», Berlin Policy Journal, May 18, 2020, https://berlinpolicyjournal.com/keepinganequidistance/.
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«Inaugural Lecture on Behalf of H. E. Saddam Hussein», in The Principles of Non-Alignment, ed. Hans Köhler (Vienna: Third World Centre, 1982), p. 5.
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Lee Hsien Loong, «The Endangered Asian Century: America, China, and the Perils of Confrontation», Foreign Affairs, July/August 2020, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/asia/20200604/lee-hsien-loong-endangered-asian-century.
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Emile Simpson, War from the Ground Up: Twenty-First Century Combat as Politics (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2012).
1527
Hal Brands and Francis J. Gavin, eds., COVID-19 and World Order: The Future of Conflict, Competition, and Cooperation (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2020).
1528
Ben Thompson, «China, Leverage, and Values», Stratechery, May 21, 2019, https://stratechery.com/2019/china-leverage-and-values/; Ben Thompson, «The China Cultural Clash», Stratechery, October 8, 2019, https://stratechery.com/2019/the-china-cultural-clash/.
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Ben Thompson, «The TikTok War», Stratechery, July 14, 2020, https://stratechery.com/2020/the-tiktok-war/.
1530
Андерсен Росс (род. 1956) – британский ученый, консультант по инженерной безопасности.
1531
Ross Andersen, «The Panopticon Is Already Here», Atlantic, September 2020, https://www.theatlan tic.com/magazine/archive/2020/09/chinaaisurveillance/614197/.
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Jiang Shigong, «Empire and World Order», trans. David Ownby, at Reading the China Dream, https://www.readingthechinadream.com/jiang-shigong-empire-and-world-order.html.
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Мировая политика (нем.).
1534
Barry Eichengreen, Pei Minxin, Kevin Rudd, and Elizabeth Sidiropoulos, «Xi’s Weltpolitik», Project Syndicate, August 14, 2018, https://www.project-syndicate.org/bigpicture/xisweltpolitik.
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Larry Diamond, Orville Schell, et al., Chinese Influence & American Interests: Promoting Constructive Vigilance – Report of the Working Group on Chinese Influence Activities in the United States (Stanford, CA: Hoover Institution Press, 2018), https://www.hoover.org/sites/default/files/research/docs/chi neseinfluence_americaninterests_fullreport_web.pdf.
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Frances Stonor Saunders, The Cultural Cold War: The CIA and the World of Arts and Letters (New York: Free Press, 2001).
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Régis Debray, «The Third World: From Kalashnikovs to God and Computers», New Perspectives Quarterly 3, no. 1 (Spring 1986), p. 43.
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Hoover Institution, «Cardinal Conversations: Reid Hoffman and Peter Thiel on ‘Technology and Politics,’» January 31, 2018, YouTube video, 1:31:25, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J2klGJRrjqw. См. также: Ali Yahya, «The Long-Tail Problem of AI, and How Autonomous Markets Can Solve It», Andreesen Horowitz, July 24, 2020, https://a16z.com/2020/07/24/long-tail-probleminai/.
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Guardian, «Chinese Cultural Revolution: The Boy Who Denounced His Mother», March 29, 2013, YouTube video, 3:35, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CCA6ME81RLQ.
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«China Uses Sci-Fi to Try to Spark a Tech Boom», Straits Times, September 22, 2018, https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/china-uses-scifitotrytosparkatech-boom. См. также: Rebecca Davis, «China Issues Guidelines on Developing a Sci-Fi Film Sector», Variety, August 17, 2020, https://variety.com/2020/film/news/china-guidelines-science-fiction-1234737913/.
1541
Лю Цысинь. Указ. соч.
1542
Там же.
1543
Там же.
1544
Liu Cixin, The Dark Forest, trans. Joel Martinsen (New York: Tom Doherty, 2015), p. 484.
1545
Олдос Хаксли. О дивный новый мир / Пер. О. Сороки. М., 2000.
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Мэри Шелли. Франкенштейн. Последний человек / Пер. З. Александровой. М., 2010.
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Stephen M. Kissler et al., «Projecting the Transmission Dynamics of SARS-CoV2 Through the Postpandemic Period», Science 368, no. 6493 (May 2020), pp. 860–868, https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6493/860/tab-pdf; Eskild Petersen et al., «Comparing SARS-CoV2 with SARS-CoV and Influenza Pandemics», Lancet Infectious Diseases 20, no. 9 (September 2020), pp. E238 – E244, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473–3099 (20) 304849.
1548
Pasquale Cirillo and Nassim Nicholas Taleb, «Tail Risk of Contagious Diseases», 2020.
1549
Scott Galloway, «The Great Distancing», No Mercy, No Malice (blog), August 7, 2020, https://www.prof galloway.com/the-great-distancing.
1550
Прозвища Нью-Йорка и Лондона соответственно.
1551
Erik Brynjolfsson et al., «COVID-19 and Remote Work: An Early Look at US Data», NBER Working Paper No. 27344 (June 2020), http://www.nber.org/papers/w27344.
1552
Nicholas Bloom, «How Working from Home Works Out», SIEPR Policy Brief (June 2020), https://siepr.stanford.edu/research/publications/how-working-home-works-out.
1553
Bruno Maçães, «The Great Pause Was an Economic Revolution», Foreign Policy, June 22, 2020, https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/06/22/the-great-pause-wasaneconomic-revolution%e2%80%a8/.
1554
Sebastian Mallaby, «The Age of Magic Money», Foreign Affairs, July/August 2020, https://www.for eignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/20200529/pandemic-financial-crisis.
1555
Jon Cohen, «Swine Flu Strain with Human Pandemic Potential Increasingly Found in Pigs in China», Science, June 29, 2020, https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/06/swine-flu-strain-human-pandemic-potential-increasingly-found-pigs-china.
1556
Jessie Yeung, Philip Wang, and Martin Goillandeau, «Kazakhstan Denies Chinese Government Report That Country Has ‘Unknown Pneumonia’ Outbreak More Deadly than COVID-19», CNN, July 10, 2020, https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/07/10/asia/kazakhstan-pneumonia-intl-hnk-scli-scn/index.html.
1557
Dorothy H. Crawford, Deadly Companions: How Microbes Shaped Our History (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2007), pp. 195–196.
1558
Marc Galimand et al., «Multidrug Resistance in Yersinia Pestis Mediated by a Transferable Plasmid», NEJM 337, no. 10 (1997), pp. 677-80.
1559
Nick Bostrom and Milan Сirkoviс, eds., Global Catastrophic Risks (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), pp. 2–4.
1560
World Food Programme, «COVID-19 Will Double Number of People Facing Food Crises Unless Swift Action Is Taken», April 21, 2020, https://www.wfp.org/news/covid19will-double-number-people-facing-food-crises-unless-swift-action-taken.
1561
«Slowing the Coronavirus Is Speeding the Spread of Other Diseases», New York Times, June 14, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/14/health/coronavirus-vaccines-measles.html; Peter Sands, «HIV, Tuberculosis, and Malaria: How Can the Impact of COVID-19 Be Minimised?» Lancet, July 13, 2020, https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X (20) 30317X/fulltext.
1562
James Hansen et al., «Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise and Superstorms: Evidence from Paleoclimate Data, Climate Modeling, and Modern Observations That 2 °C Global Warming Is Highly Dangerous», Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 15, no. 14 (July 23, 2015), pp. 20059-20179.
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IPCC, Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report: Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, eds. Core Writing Team, R. K. Pachauri and L. A. Meyer (Geneva: IPCC, 2014), https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full.pdf. See Christopher R. Schwalm, Spencer Glendon, and Philip B. Duffy, «RCP8.5 Tracks Cumulative CO2 Emissions», PNAS 117, no. 33 (August 18, 2020), pp. 19656-19657, https://www.pnas.org/content/117/33/19656.
1564
David Frame and Myles R. Allen, «Climate Change and Global Risk», in Global Catastrophic Risks, ed. Nick Bostrom and Milan Cirkovic (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), pp. 279–281. См. также: Bjorn Lomborg, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet (New York: Basic Books, 2020); Michael Shellenberger, Apocalypse Never: Why Environmental Alarmism Hurts Us All (New York: HarperCollins, 2020).
1565
Elizabeth Weil, «They Know How to Prevent Megafires. Why Won’t Anybody Listen?» ProPublica, August 28, 2020, https://www.propublica.org/article/they-know-howtoprevent-megafires-why-wont-anybody-listen.
1566
Chingy Tse-Cheng, «Expert Warns China’s Three Gorges Dam in Danger of Collapse», Taiwan News, June 22, 2020, https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3951673; Keoni Everington, «Videos Show Massive Flooding in S. China, Three Gorges Dam Next», Taiwan News, June 23, 2020, https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3952434.
1567
Jacob B. Lowenstern et al., «Steam Explosions, Earthquakes, and Volcanic Eruptions – What’s in Yellowstone’s Future?» U. S. Geological Survey and National Park Service (2005), https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2005/3024/fs2005–3024.pdf.
1568
Milan Cirkovic, «Observation Selection Effects and Global Catastrophic Risks», in Global Catastrophic Risks, ed. Nick Bostrom and Milan Cirkovic (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), pp. 135–137.
1569
Arnon Dar, «Influence of Supernovae, Gamma-Ray Bursts, Solar Flares, and Cosmic Rays on the Terrestrial Environment», in Global Catastrophic Risks, ed. Nick Bostrom and Milan Cirkovic (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), p. 259.
1570
Richard A. Clarke and R. P. Eddy, Warnings: Finding Cassandras to Stop Catastrophes (New York: HarperCollins, 2018), p. 322. См. также: «The World Should Think Better About Catastrophic and Existential Risks», Economist, June 25, 2020, https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/06/25/the-world-should-think-better-about-catastrophic-and-existential-risks.
1571
Frank Wilczek, «Big Troubles, Imagined and Real», in Global Catastrophic Risks, ed. Nick Bostrom and Milan Cirkovic (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), pp. 356f. См. также: Katsuhiko Sato, «First-Order Phase Transition of a Vacuum and the Expansion of the Universe», Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society 195 (May 1981), pp. 467–479.
1572
Nick Bostrom, «The Vulnerable World Hypothesis», Working Paper, v.3.42, Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford (2018).
1573
Joseph Cirincione, «The Continuing Threat of Nuclear War», and William C. Potter and Gary Ackerman, «Catastrophic Nuclear Terrorism:
A Preventable Peril», in Global Catastrophic Risks, ed. Nick Bostrom and Milan Cirkovic (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008). См. также: Clarke and Eddy, Warnings, pp. 278f.
1574
Ali Nouri and Christopher F. Chyba, «Biotechnology and Biosecurity», in Global Catastrophic Risks, ed. Nick Bostrom and Milan Cirkovic (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), pp. 456f.
1575
Martin Jinek et al., «A Programmable Dual-RNA – Guided-DNA Endonuclease in Adaptive Bacterial Immunity», Science 337, no. 6096 (August 17, 2012), pp. 816–821. См. также: Jennifer Kahn, «The CRISPR Quandary», New York Times Magazine, November 9, 2015, www.nytimes.come/2015/11/15/magazine/the-cripsr-quandary.html.
1576
«Biotech: DIY Disaster Zone», Financial Times, June 23, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/7c0d9214-938d-4931-868e-e3533b8da70a.
1577
Christopher Wills, Children of Prometheus: The Accelerating Pace of Human Evolution (Reading, MA: Perseus, 1998).
1578
Clarke and Eddy, Warnings, pp. 292–299.
1579
Eliezer Yudkowsky, «AI as a Positive and Negative Factor in Global Risk», in Global Catastrophic Risks, ed. Nick Bostrom and Milan Cirkovic (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), pp. 201–207. См. также: James J. Hughes, «Millennial Tendencies in Responses to Apocalyptic Threats», in Global Catastrophic Risks, ed. Nick Bostrom and Milan Cirkovic (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), pp. 79–81.
1580
Chris Phoenix and Mike Treder, «Nanotechnology as Global Catastrophic Risk», in Global Catastrophic Risks, ed. Nick Bostrom and Milan Cirkovic (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), pp. 488f. See K. E. Drexler, Nanosystems: Molecular Machinery, Manufacturing, and Computation (New York: Wiley Interscience, 1992).
1581
Toby Ord, The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity (New York: Hachette, 2020).
1582
Richard A. Posner, «Public Policy Towards Catastrophe», in Global Catastrophic Risks, ed. Nick Bostrom and Milan Cirkovic (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), pp. 186f. Некоторые интересные предложения, как с этим справиться, см: Bina Venkataraman, The Optimist’s Telescope (New York: Penguin 2019), and Margaret Heffernan, Uncharted: How to Map the Future Together (London: Simon & Schuster, 2020).
1583
Clarke and Eddy, Warnings, pp. 356, 362–364.
1584
Bostrom, «Vulnerable World Hypothesis», pp. 17–23.
1585
Bostrom, «Vulnerable World Hypothesis», pp. 23, 28. Подобные аргументы приводили и другие авторы, чьи работы вошли в издание: Christopher Wills, «Evolutionary Theory and the Future of Humanity», and Robin Hanson, «Catastrophe, Social Collapse, and Human Extinction», in Global Catastrophic Risks, ed. Nick Bostrom and Milan Cirkovic (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), pp. 67, 373f.
1586
Bryan Caplan, «The Totalitarian Threat», in Global Catastrophic Risks, ed. Nick Bostrom and Milan Cirkovic (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), pp. 511–514.
1587
Юваль Ной Харари. 21 урок для XXI века / Пер. Ю. Гольдберга. М., 2019.
1588
Yuval Noah Harari, «Why Technology Favors Tyranny», Atlantic, October 2018, https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2018/10/yuval-noah-harari-technology-tyranny /568330/.
1589
Steven L. Aggelis, ed., Conversations with Ray Bradbury (Jackson: University Press of Mississippi, 2004), p. 99.
1590
Настоящие имя и фамилия Джорджа Оруэлла.
1591
Хаксли – Оруэллу, 21.10.1949, Letters of Note, vol. 2: An Eclectic Collection of Correspondence Deserving of a Wider Audience, ed. Shaun Usher (San Francisco: Chronicle, 2016), p. 33.
1592
Евгений Замятин. Мы. Повести. Рассказы. М., 2010.
1593
Yevgeny Zamyatin, We, trans. Natasha S. Randall (New York: Modern Library, 2006), p. 187. [На русском языке: Евгений Замятин. Мы. Повести. Рассказы. М., Дрофа, 2010. С. 179–180.]
1594
Вымышленное тоталитарное государство, в котором происходит действие романа Маргарет Этвуд «Рассказ служанки».
1595
Лю Цысинь. Задача трех тел / Пер. О. Глушковой. М., 2020.
1596
Там же.
1597
Там же.
1598
Там же.
1599
Даниэль Дефо. Указ. соч.
1600
Daniel Defoe, A Journal of the Plague Year (London: Penguin, 2003 [1722]), p. 218.
1601
Richard McGregor, «Zhou’s Cryptic Caution Lost in Translation», Financial Times, June 10, 2011, https://delanceyplace.com/view-archives.php?p=1711.
1602
Эдмунд Бёрк. Размышления о революции во Франции / Пер. С. Векслер. Лондон, 1992.
1603
Michael Lewis, The Premonition: A Pandemic Story (New York: W. W. Norton, 2021), xiii.
1604
«Dominic Cummings: Thousands died needlessly after Covid mistakes», BBC News, May 26, 2021, https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-57253578.
1605
Glenn Kessler, «In Context: What Biden Aide Ron Klain Said About the Swine Flu», The Washington Post, October 15, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/10/15/context-what-biden-aide-ron-klain-said-about-swine-flu/.
1606
Nicholas Christakis, Apollo’s Arrow: The Profound and Enduring Impact of the Coronavirus on the Way We Live (New York: Little, Brown Spark, 2020), p. 283.
1607
Lawrence H. Summers, «The Biden Stimulus is Admirably Ambitious. But it Brings Some Big Risks, Too», The Washington Post, February 4, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/02/04/larry-summers-biden-covid-stimulus.
1608
«Jay Powell Says ‘We Have Not Won This Yet,’ as Fed Holds Rates Steady», Financial Times, January 27, 2021, https://www.ft.com/content/3f860e2b-8173-4e3a-a9c1-fc9a8ac8939d.
1609
Adam Serwer, «The Capitol Rioters Weren’t ‘Low Class’», The Atlantic, January 12, 2021, https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/01/thoroughly-respectable-rioters/617644/; Michael M. Phillips, «One Trump Fan’s Descent Into the U. S. Capitol Mob», The Wall Street Journal, January 10, 2021, https://www.wsj.com/articles/one-trump-fans-descent-into-the-u-s-capitol-mob-11610311660; Robert A. Pape and Keven Ruby, «The Capitol Rioters Aren’t Like Other Extremists», The Atlantic, February 2, 2021, https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/02/the-capitol-rioters-arent-like-other-extremists/617895/; Todd C. Frankel, «A Majority of the People Arrested for Capitol Riot Had a History of Financial Trouble», The Washington Post, February 10, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/02/10/capitol-insurrectionists-jenna-ryan-financial-problems.
1610
PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll, January 7, 2021, http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_202101081001.pdf#page=3.
1611
См. мой вклад: «The First Ninety-Nine Days», Persuasion, April 28, 2021, https://www.persuasion.community/p/the-first-99-days.
1612
Andrew Leonard, «How Taiwan’s Unlikely Digital Minister Hacked the Pandemic», Wired, July 23, 2020, https://www.wired.com/story/how-taiwans-unlikely-digital-minister-hacked-the-pandemic.
1613
Yun Xuan Pun, «How Taiwan Used Memes to Fight Pandemic Rumours», GovInsider, September 11, 2020, https://govinsider.asia/inclusive-gov/audrey-tang-digital-minister-how-taiwan-used-memes-to-fight-pandemic-rumours.
1614
Institute for Economics and Peace, Global Peace Index 2021, June 2021, https://www.visionofhumanity.org/resources/. See also Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov, Samuel Pienknagura, and Luca Antonio Ricci, «The Macroeconomic Impact of Social Unrest», International Monetary Fund Working Paper No. 2021/135, May 7, 2021, https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2021/05/07/The-Macroeconomic-Impact-of-Social-Unrest-50338.
1615
О понятии «лавины конфликтов» см.: Edward D. Lee et al. «A Scaling Theory of Armed Conflict Avalanches», April 29, 2020, https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.14311.
1616
Tanner Greer, «Why I Fear for Taiwan», The Scholar’s Stage, September 11, 2020, https://scholars-stage.org/why-i-fear-for-taiwan.
1617
Lonnie Henley, «PLA Operational Concepts and Centers of Gravity in a Taiwan Conflict», Testimony before the U. S.– China Economic and Security Review Commission Hearing on Cross-Strait Deterrence, February 18, 2021, https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/fi les/2021-02/Lonnie_Henley_Testimony.pdf.
1618
Mallory Shelbourne, «Davidson: China Could Try to Take Control of Taiwan In ‘Next Six Years’», USNI News, March 9, 2021, https://news.usni.org/2021/03/09/davidson-china-could try-to-take-control-of-taiwan-in-next-six-years.
1619
Michael Auslin, «The Sino-American War of 2025», Spectator, February 22, 2021, https://www.realcleardefense.com/2021/02/22/the_sino-american_war_of_2025_661237.html.
1620
Robert D. Blackwill and Philip Zelikow, The United States, China, and Taiwan: A Strategy to Prevent War, Council of Foreign Relations, Special Report No. 90, February 2021, https://cdn.cfr.org/sites/default/files/report_pdf/csr90_1.pdf.
1621
Max Hastings, «America Is Headed to a Showdown Over Taiwan, and China Might Win», Bloomberg, March 14, 2021, https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-14/max-hastings-china-might-defeat-america-in-war-over-taiwan?sref=ojq9DljU.
1622
Намек на возможную игру слов: фамилия госсекретаря США – Блинкен, а глагол blink – это как раз и есть «моргнуть», «зажмуриться», «проморгать», «закрыть глаза на что-либо».
1623
Alan Bennett, The History Boys (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2006).